Texas Winter 2024-2025

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I'm in Breckenridge where the wind chill is about a negative number. Snow everywhere

When are you coming back to Oklahoma?

Thursday. Well Wednesday night I'll be in Denver which has been a lot warmer(they had no snow at all when I was there yesterday) and it's supposed to start warming up after this

Just got an inch of snow this evening. Todays high was 32, pretty cold. Rest of the week will be on the chilly side but not bad in the sun.

[HockeyTx82]

I read the weekly cpc update about the mjo and its just now getting into phase 5. It mentioned that it will have interference with the emerging lower frequency base state. Anyone know what this means?

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an important climate phenomenon that can influence weather patterns around the world[43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 1daa162054 "1"). When the MJO enters **Phase 5**, it typically brings enhanced convection (rainfall) and westerly winds over the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent[43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 1daa162054 "1").

The **"interference with the emerging lower frequency base state"** refers to the interaction between the MJO and the **El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)**[43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 1daa162054 "2"). In this case, the MJO's signal is interacting with the **low-frequency background state**, which is trending towards La Niña conditions[43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 1daa162054 "1"). This interaction can **slow down the eastward propagation** of the MJO and affect weather patterns, such as **enhanced rainfall** over certain regions[43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 1daa162054 "1").

Does this help clarify things a bit?

It does, but we don't want it to stop propagating through the warm phases do we? 4-6 are very warm phases, especially 6.

No idea, that was a straight up put into Copilot AI response. Haha

Sorry, I thought I had the copilot disclaimer at the bottom.

[Brent]

GFS has a big Christmas storm again. Would not be very warm if that happens

Oh and 32 sounds hot right now... The wind chill was near zero all day here

[Stratton23]

Models actually agree on cold air building in our source region, however it appears that the aleutian trough may end up wiping out that cold pool over time, dont really see a mechanism for that cold air to get dislodged southward

[Cpv17]

The ensembles look pretty bad through Christmas. Should be able to get some rain though. There’s at least a half decent signal for that.

[TropicalTundra]

Looks like that band of snow that was supposed to dissipate is still there. Looks stronger than before too. I can’t see if it’s actually hitting the ground or just eye candy though.

[nathanc1969]

Looks like that band of snow that was supposed to dissipate is still there. Looks stronger than before too. I can’t see if it’s actually hitting the ground or just eye candy though.

My son lives in Lubbock and he said its just flurries. Better than 85 degrees though!!!

[TropicalTundra]

Looks like that band of snow that was supposed to dissipate is still there. Looks stronger than before too. I can’t see if it’s actually hitting the ground or just eye candy though.

My son lives in Lubbock and he said its just flurries. Better than 85 degrees though!!!

Looks like a dry slot right over the city lol. There's a decent looking band just southwest of there and the weather service stations say some form of snow.

[Stratton23]

Pretty big differences in modeling next week, CMC drags an arctic front through texas next tuesday, GFS not as cold but still a decent cool down

[Stratton23]

Notice how models are starting to show more ridging off the west coast- cutting off the aleutian trough, in fact we see the western us ridge really begin to expand north and connect with ridging north of Alaska on the 12z euro and GFS somewhat, creates an alaskan ridge bridge as i like to call it, definitely not a-recipe for a mild pattern at least at the 500 mb height setup on models today

[HockeyTx82]

I want to believe

[Ntxw]

It still doesn't look like a torch pattern. Remember in winter strong SE flexing ridge is prolonged torch. 500mb ridge with NW flow below not so much.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw for sure its not that bad, could be a lot worse, as usual mets on twitter/ X are calling for a torch lol, but i am encouraged by models today showing more ridging over the western US trying to extend into NW canada and or alaska, that could help to build a cold pool, meanwhile today feels wonderful with that front that came through overnight

[Quixotic]

Am I crazy or isn’t the Aleutian Low a good thing for cold and snow? Pumps the ridge into Alaska and sends SWs into west coast?

[Brent]

I've been saying for days I'm not buying a big torch... Like I feel like it's been 300 hours out for a week now. It's not getting any closer

There's still a signal on the EPS it could snow in Tulsa before Christmas too

[Ntxw]

Euro is showing some winter weather ~20th. The pattern is up and down, but not all that warm. Seasonable with variability. NW flow at the surface is still a cool direction. A big massive 500mb ridge(torch looking) but with weakness underneath is not the kind of surface flow that brings a torch here. You need to be on the backside of ridges to torch, for us that's the Southeast Ridge.

[Brent]

Some torch... The GFS has temps dropping towards Christmas too

[Stratton23]

the CPC has well above normal temperatures for Alaska in the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks ( not worried about US at the moment ) an aleutian trough pattern would not favor above normal warmth in Alaska, seems to me like they favor at least higher heights? That’s interesting to me as thats an indication that the aleutian trough pattern is much weaker than thought, but typically when alaska is above normal the US is colder, models kinda starting to see that now

[Ntxw]

Here's a highlight look at how ensemble smoothing and just using 500mb does not always work well, especially the further out you go.

If you looked far out and all you saw were above normal heights, reds and oranges you'd believe a winter heatwave was coming.



But even here the flow is out of the NW for our region, which of course at the surface would mean from a cooler region rather than a warmer region, even if they are above normal.

Would have completely missed the weakness over the Southern Plains, which this early winter has shown persistent storm energy, despite lack of actual precip but they have been there. The North Pacific resembles a Nino, the tropical Pacific resembles a Nina, lots of variability. Quixotic nailed it I think, Aleutian low eventually translates to Southern Plains lows.



The torch of all torch Decembers featured strong Aleutian flat ridge (Nina) and cold trough in W-Can coast that created zonal and SW flow aloft with a strong Southeast Ridge. The flow above would've come out of the desert SW at the same time surface returns were coming out of the gulf where it's 70s and 80s.





This has been my learning curve the past few years both ways for cold and warmth. Relying too much on 500mb charts and disregarding source regions gets us waxed. Pun intended (wxman57!)

[Lagreeneyes03]

It still doesn't look like a torch pattern. Remember in winter strong SE flexing ridge is prolonged torch. 500mb ridge with NW flow below not so much.

70's this weekend forecast though