Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Golfisnteasy7575]

The euro aifs has a decent winter storm for my area, but if it verified, I would put more emphasis on that model. Its just way out there lol. Not sure what that model sees over other models. Now, if a minor ssw happened, that would lend credibility to that colder pattern.

[Brent]

The euro aifs has a decent winter storm for my area, but if it verified, I would put more emphasis on that model. Its just way out there lol. Not sure what that model sees over other models. Now, if a minor ssw happened, that would lend credibility to that colder pattern.

There's still a weak signal around the 19th for Tulsa

[Golfisnteasy7575]

The euro aifs has a decent winter storm for my area, but if it verified, I would put more emphasis on that model. Its just way out there lol. Not sure what that model sees over other models. Now, if a minor ssw happened, that would lend credibility to that colder pattern.

There's still a weak signal around the 19th for Tulsa

Webber makes a great point about the trough retrogression. When it happens, that should allow better opportunities at winter weather, providing cold air is available lol. I believe it will be a front loaded winter, and if true, I'm hopeful we will get something early because I believe la niña really kicks in. Because now, it's more strong niño atmosphere. Interesting pattern

[Stratton23]

La nina is going to be weakening as we progress through winter, not strengthening

[Golfisnteasy7575]

La nina is going to be weakening as we progress through winter, not strengthening

I meant la niña atmosphere

[Stratton23]

Golfisnteasy7575 ah gotcha, still think that will weaken as we progress, i think the 2nd half of winter will feature more SE ridging as the +TNH/ -EPO becomes more prevalent , hopefully it isnt a front loaded winter like the last several have been

[Stratton23]

Very impressive alaskan blocking on the Euro, and its within 10 days, thats a pretty cold run too!

[Brent]

There's a place in Colorado that has been below zero for 14 days straight

Longest stretch since 2013..

[WaveBreaking]

00Z GFS run today uptrends on the warming event’s strength and even shows a second warming wave of the other side of the PV helping to stretch and even split it. Interesting.

[Cpv17]

There's a place in Colorado that has been below zero for 14 days straight

Longest stretch since 2013..

Bro, that’s absolutely bonkers! I can’t even imagine.

[CaptinCrunch]

La nina is going to be weakening as we progress through winter, not strengthening

We have been in ENSO neutral Since AMJ and the current SST departures are:
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3 -0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 0.1ºC

La Nina was forecast for Oct-Dec start and only expected to last till late January early February 2025, none of which has happened. While there are Nina influences at hand there is no official La Nina status and the odds of any official La Nina is fading quickly. My bet is we ride out the ENSO neutral with weak La Nina like influences till El Nino returns this spring/summer.

This really is the best outcome we could have heading into this Winter. Again, we are still in a transition state, and poor models have made forecasting more difficult. If you lived in Texas for a few decades then you would know this December is pretty much spot on normal for us, and Winter in NTX doesn't really begin till January and only last till mid March if we're lucky.

[Texas Snowman]

Mentioned above…

 https://x.com/bianchiweather/status/1867212665103278553

[DallasAg]

Mentioned above…

 https://x.com/bianchiweather/status/1867212665103278553

The Western Slope and Gunnison Valley have some really interesting weather. Temperature inversions will trap super cold air funneling down the valley from higher terrain around Crested Butte and just lock it in place. Places like Gunnison and Alamosa can sometimes be the coldest spot in the lower 48 when conditions are right. But that's crazy cold for even Gunni.

[Stratton23]

GFS much colder, 1056 mb high coming out of canada

[Gotwood]

GFS much colder, 1056 mb high coming out of canada

Models driving cold east seems like a theme.

[HockeyTx82]

GFS much colder, 1056 mb high coming out of canada

Models driving cold east seems like a theme.

Dense cold, from what others have said, slides South and does not do what models always say.

I get excited when Wxman57 starts packing his bags for a trip south.

[Cpv17]

GFS much colder, 1056 mb high coming out of canada

Models driving cold east seems like a theme.

Dense cold, from what others have said, slides South and does not do what models always say.

I get excited when Wxman57 starts packing his bags for a trip south.

Not always true. It all depends on the PNA.

[Stratton23]

Alaskan ridging in place on the Euro, my confidence is on the higher side of a pretty good cold blast late next week, precipitation is definitely a question though

[Cpv17]

Alaskan ridging in place on the Euro, my confidence is on the higher side of a pretty good cold blast late next week, precipitation is definitely a question though

Check out the 12z GEFS.

[Brent]

Alaskan ridging in place on the Euro, my confidence is on the higher side of a pretty good cold blast late next week, precipitation is definitely a question though

Check out the 12z GEFS.

I only see a few members on the GEFS with any snow for Tulsa

I hope it's not all east of us. I just got back from Colorado and yeah I think we have no excuses this year to eventually get something