2024 TCRs

[KirbyDude25]

TS Joyce is up with peak of 45kt. None of the biggies are yet up and guess those will take a while.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112024_Joyce.pdf

In my experience, those are usually the last ones to come out, yeah. With an approximate publication date between late January and the middle of February (although it can sometimes span as late as April!).

I can't wait for Beryl and Milton. I think everyone will probably be wanting to see Helene's the most, and to each their own, but for me, the record-setting statistics of the former two storms makes me inherently more interested in their respective TCRs.

I also want to see what they end up doing with Oscar. From the get-go it seemed like a storm in dire need of post-season reanalysis, so its TCR will be very useful (I'm thinking they move genesis back at least a day and up the peak by about 10 knots, though I'm obviously not sure of anything). It'll also be interesting to see if Kirk gets a bump up in intensity given its handful of T7.0 readings, though I doubt they'll push it all the way to Category 5 (that would be a 15-knot increase, which I don't recall them ever doing in a TCR, though I may be mistaken).

[galaxy401]

Gordon from the Atlantic and Ileana from the Pacific have been released.

Gordon: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL072024_Gordon.pdf

Ileana: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP092024_Ileana.pdf

[StormWeather]

TS Joyce is up with peak of 45kt. None of the biggies are yet up and guess those will take a while.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112024_Joyce.pdf

In my experience, those are usually the last ones to come out, yeah. With an approximate publication date between late January and the middle of February (although it can sometimes span as late as April!).

I can't wait for Beryl and Milton. I think everyone will probably be wanting to see Helene's the most, and to each their own, but for me, the record-setting statistics of the former two storms makes me inherently more interested in their respective TCRs.

I also want to see what they end up doing with Oscar. From the get-go it seemed like a storm in dire need of post-season reanalysis, so its TCR will be very useful (I'm thinking they move genesis back at least a day and up the peak by about 10 knots, though I'm obviously not sure of anything). It'll also be interesting to see if Kirk gets a bump up in intensity given its handful of T7.0 readings, though I doubt they'll push it all the way to Category 5 (that would be a 15-knot increase, which I don't recall them ever doing in a TCR, though I may be mistaken).

They bumped Tropical Storm Mindy 2021 up from an operational 40 kts (45 mph) to 50 kts (60 mph) in its report.

[OtakuForecaster]

In my experience, those are usually the last ones to come out, yeah. With an approximate publication date between late January and the middle of February (although it can sometimes span as late as April!).

I can't wait for Beryl and Milton. I think everyone will probably be wanting to see Helene's the most, and to each their own, but for me, the record-setting statistics of the former two storms makes me inherently more interested in their respective TCRs.

I also want to see what they end up doing with Oscar. From the get-go it seemed like a storm in dire need of post-season reanalysis, so its TCR will be very useful (I'm thinking they move genesis back at least a day and up the peak by about 10 knots, though I'm obviously not sure of anything). It'll also be interesting to see if Kirk gets a bump up in intensity given its handful of T7.0 readings, though I doubt they'll push it all the way to Category 5 (that would be a 15-knot increase, which I don't recall them ever doing in a TCR, though I may be mistaken).

They bumped Tropical Storm Mindy 2021 up from an operational 40 kts (45 mph) to 50 kts (60 mph) in its report.

Did they? Interesting! I wonder what their basis was?

*checks TCR*

[OtakuForecaster]

TS Joyce is up with peak of 45kt. None of the biggies are yet up and guess those will take a while.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112024_Joyce.pdf

In my experience, those are usually the last ones to come out, yeah. With an approximate publication date between late January and the middle of February (although it can sometimes span as late as April!).

I can't wait for Beryl and Milton. I think everyone will probably be wanting to see Helene's the most, and to each their own, but for me, the record-setting statistics of the former two storms makes me inherently more interested in their respective TCRs.

I also want to see what they end up doing with Oscar. From the get-go it seemed like a storm in dire need of post-season reanalysis, so its TCR will be very useful (I'm thinking they move genesis back at least a day and up the peak by about 10 knots, though I'm obviously not sure of anything). It'll also be interesting to see if Kirk gets a bump up in intensity given its handful of T7.0 readings, though I doubt they'll push it all the way to Category 5 (that would be a 15-knot increase, which I don't recall them ever doing in a TCR, though I may be mistaken).

Yup. Dvorak estimates won't work especially well for Oscar given its diminutive size and rapid intensity fluctuations, so constructing its post-season "best track" intensity is going to be difficult.

Interesting read coming up there for sure!

[ljmac75]

Nadine - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL152024_Nadine.pdf
Daniel - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP042024_Daniel.pdf
14-E - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP142 ... teen-E.pdf

[galaxy401]

Two quick reports from the EPAC: Fabio and Lane.

Fabio: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP062024_Fabio.pdf

Lane: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP132024_Lane.pdf

[Hurricane2022]

Patty is out
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL172024_Patty.pdf

[ljmac75]

Leslie, 90 kt 970 mb
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL132024_Leslie.pdf

[Hurricane2022]

Leslie, 90 kt 970 mb
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL132024_Leslie.pdf

Well, 90 kt doesn't sound a bad estimate to me at all; but I was expecting a 5 - 10 kt bump in the initial peak estimate tbh.

[kevin]

Leslie, 90 kt 970 mb
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL132024_Leslie.pdf

I was also expecting a bump from 80 kt to 85 kt for the first peak, but either way the 90 kt peak intensity seems very reasonable.

[cycloneye]

BERYL is up: They left the peak at 145kt.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL022024_Beryl.pdf

[cycloneye]

Debby is also up:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL042024_Debby.pdf

[Hurricane2022]

BERYL is up: They left the peak at 145kt.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL022024_Beryl.pdf

https://i.imgur.com/Y4MaknD.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/BZirlSQ.jpeg

Atleast they dropped the pressure to 932 but 145 kt seems a reasonable estimate to me.

The maximum intensity of Beryl is somewhat uncertain due to temporal gaps in the aircraft
data near the time of peak intensity and issues with SFMR surface wind estimates that prevented
their use in this evaluation. The maximum aircraft-observed flight-level winds during the hurricane
were 164 kt at 0941 UTC 2 July at an altitude of 8000 ft/750 mb. Additionally, 700-mb flight-level
winds of 157 and 154 kt were measured at 0153 UTC and 0455 UTC 2 July respectively. Using
the standard reductions for the eyewall region, these observations support surface intensity
estimates of around 140 kt. NOAA Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) data near 0941 UTC 2 July showed
maximum winds of 169 kt near 600 m altitude. While it is unclear if this is the best way to estimate
surface winds from TDR data, this velocity supports surface winds near 135 kt using the
dropsonde-based reductions developed for flight-level winds. Finally, a dropsonde at 0941 UTC
2 July reported very strong winds in the north eyewall, including 198 kt at 910 mb. In real time,
this dropsonde did not return a surface wind or useful layer averages due to missing data.
However, the NOAA Hurricane Research Division (HRD) reconstructed the sonde data and found
surface winds of 143 kt and layer-mean reduced averages in the 138-147 kt range. The evaluation
of Beryl’s peak intensity leans most toward the data from this latter sonde, and based on this the
peak intensity is set at 145 kt – category 5 on the SSHWS.
Beryl’s minimum central pressure is estimated at 932 mb on 2 July based on a dropsonde
in the eye at 0943 UTC that reported 933 mb with a surface wind of 15 kt.

[CrazyC83]

All things considered, Beryl's peak seems reasonable, given the uncertainty and the fact the SFMR was acting like garbage last year. Notice they dropped the Yucatan landfall from 95 to 80 kt (reasonable IMO given the dramatic pressure rise in the last few hours) and also the Texas landfall was increased from 70 to 80 kt (I was expecting at least 75 kt, but surprised they went a bit higher still). I'd have considered a lower pressure, around 976 mb, based on the readings just inland.

As far as Debby, I think the 70 kt landfall intensity is quite generous. The land data (both pressure and wind) weren't very impressive as there were very few readings in the 980s and no gusts (let alone sustained winds) of hurricane force on land. The pressure also likely rose in the last 3 hours or so, with Josh Morgerman's 982 mb reading a better landfall estimate. I'd have peaked it at 70 kt at 06Z, then lowered it to 65 kt at landfall (I'd have considered 60 kt except for the flight caveats), with those winds likely only on the immediate shoreline as shown by the aircraft.

[galaxy401]

Beryl's landfall on the Yucatan was drastically lowered (Cat 2 -> Cat 1 intensity). On the other hand, the landfall on Texas was raised a bit (70 kts -> 80 kts) which makes sense given its rapid organization at landfall.

Debby transitioned to a Subtropical storm after landfall on Florida which wasn't operationally assessed. It didn't look Tropical after landfall so I can see why.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1882522814240174121

[Category5Kaiju]

Hmm, so Beryl's minimum pressure was dropped by 2 mbar, but despite there being talk of there being 175 mph max winds in the wx community, Beryl's maximum winds was kept at 165 mph.

[Travorum]

Something interesting from Beryl's TCR:

Also notable was the EF-3 tornado in Indiana, which at the time was only the sixth EF-3 tornado associated with a tropical cyclone in the period of record.

There have been five hurricane-spawned EF-3 tornadoes between the enhanced scale's introduction in 2007 and 2024 and a whopping five just this year alone (1 from Beryl, 1 from Debby, 3 from Milton), meaning half of all EF-3 tornadoes occurred this year.

[Ernestt]

Something interesting from Beryl's TCR:

Also notable was the EF-3 tornado in Indiana, which at the time was only the sixth EF-3 tornado associated with a tropical cyclone in the period of record.

There have been five hurricane-spawned EF-3 tornadoes between the enhanced scale's introduction in 2007 and 2024 and a whopping five just this year alone (1 from Beryl, 1 from Debby, 3 from Milton), meaning half of all EF-3 tornadoes occurred this year.

Also in the past 5 years you can add Isaias and Ida to that list, so a total of 7 EF-3 tornadoes in the 5 years from 2020-2024