Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Ntxw]

Big high is coming on the 12z GFS. You get an upper 1040s or 1050s in December and it will likely have some cold air with it.

[Ntxw]

The more curious thing is that the models did not capture it well until recently. Going from hardly anything notable to something that big is a turnaround in the long range->medium range.

[Ntxw]

Looks like the PNA doesn’t want to budge and go negative until at least the very end of December. At least Christmas doesn’t look like a complete torch and we have some shots at some rain. I feel like this has been our theme for the last 5 years. Cold Decembers in Texas just don’t seem to exist anymore.

Yeah the +PNA tends to force things eastward. But still though we're running slightly below normal for the month. Will recover to near normal with the coming warmth this weekend and then slip back below. That's a variable month with neither extreme cold nor warmth.

[gpsnowman]

Big high is coming on the 12z GFS. You get an upper 1040s or 1050s in December and it will likely have some cold air with it.

Hopefully positioned to drop south instead of east

[Ntxw]

Big high is coming on the 12z GFS. You get an upper 1040s or 1050s in December and it will likely have some cold air with it.

Hopefully positioned to drop south instead of east

Slides east on the run, but reinforces below normal temps. The takeaway is went from nothing to something there in as little as a few runs. We have a lot of model volatility because NW flow is a cold flow, while upper ridging wants higher heights.

The models are not capturing the surface well, and PVa disturbances well. There is a level of disconnect between the upper flow and what occurs at the surface. If we were in a pure zonal flow it would be torch city but we're not.

[Cpv17]

Big high is coming on the 12z GFS. You get an upper 1040s or 1050s in December and it will likely have some cold air with it.

Hopefully positioned to drop south instead of east

Too much ridging over the western U.S.

We need that ridging to start shifting NW towards Alaska. Till that happens, glancing blows for us.

[Ntxw]

Just for perspective DFW has not had a below normal December since 2013, that's 11 straight years of above normal. Just to even have stretches of below normal is a tall order these days.

[Brent]

Check out the 12z GEFS.

I only see a few members on the GEFS with any snow for Tulsa

I hope it's not all east of us. I just got back from Colorado and yeah I think we have no excuses this year to eventually get something

Site are you using to see individual ensemble members?

Weathermodels but it ain't free. I'm just paying tor the winter lol

Oh and I'm already tired of the +PNA

[Lagreeneyes03]

]Welp... Just saw the CPC forecast through Christmas.
The people going to Florida for the holiday might get a rude awakening. Perhaps we should direct them towards the Padre islands.

[Stratton23]

Hopefully we see a -PNA show its self in january, i am tored of glancing blows, doesnt help that we dont have a -NAO, cant sustain these cold shots

[Brent]

Hopefully we see a -PNA show its self in january, i am tored of glancing blows, doesnt help that we dont have a -NAO, cant sustain these cold shots

Yeah I'm gonna be mad if east of here starts cashing in and we cant

[Cpv17]

Hopefully we see a -PNA show its self in january, i am tored of glancing blows, doesnt help that we dont have a -NAO, cant sustain these cold shots

I think as we get towards January the PNA will start shifting more negative.

[Ntxw]

One can hope. Probably the best +PNA repeat we can ask for.





For DFW


of note the current +PNA and NPAC is screaming El Nino, and we didn't even get that during the actual El Nino...

[txtwister78]

My gut is telling me January is going to be our month to watch. More favorable phases potentially for the MJO (7 & 8). The cold coming before Christmas looks transient and probably a little too much ridge in the west (as everyone has been discussing) to give us a direct shot. Still a few more days to watch of course, but ensembles keep the bulk of the cold east of Texas.

In the meantime, we still need rain down here across SC TX (I know doesn't sound exciting on a winter thread) but hopefully the pattern delivers next few days.

[Stratton23]

One positive im seeing that could lead to much colder weather around new years is the retraction of the pacific jet/ aleutian trough towards eastern asia, on ensembles we can see those features start to break down and retrograde back to the west, that is just one piece of the puzzle, but that definitely helps

[Cpv17]

One positive im seeing that could lead to much colder weather around new years is the retraction of the pacific jet/ aleutian trough towards eastern asia, on ensembles we can see those features start to break down and retrograde back to the west, that is just one piece of the puzzle, but that definitely helps

I’ve noticed that as well.

[Cpv17]

Here we go:

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1867 ... _m1NXPw4Cg

[Golfisnteasy7575]

My gut is telling me January is going to be our month to watch. More favorable phases potentially for the MJO (7 & 8). The cold coming before Christmas looks transient and probably a little too much ridge in the west (as everyone has been discussing) to give us a direct shot. Still a few more days to watch of course, but ensembles keep the bulk of the cold east of Texas.

In the meantime, we still need rain down here across SC TX (I know doesn't sound exciting on a winter thread) but hopefully the pattern delivers next few days.

I agree with you. With trough being too far east, it's been radically difficult to get any rain, much less any winter weather. If the trough can retrograde, at that point we can start looking for better opportunities at snow and ice. Nina's are front loaded for the most part and I'm hopeful we can get winter weather before the se ridge kicks in

[Stratton23]

Ironically the SE ridge ( if its not too strong) can actually work to our advantage when it comes to winter weather, it can help to create over running events

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Ironically the SE ridge ( if its not too strong) can actually work to our advantage when it comes to winter weather, it can help to create over running events

That's how they typically happen. The more negative the pna, more intense se ridge. Overrunning events are my favorite winter storms