2024 ENSO Updates

[cycloneye]

Breaking: NOAA in todays monthly update has not declared La Niña, but they say it will be very soon. (59% chance) Look at the right by JAS with Neutral. They have it at (61% chance)

 https://x.com/NWSCPC/status/1867207779829899427

[cycloneye]

Here is the CPC ENSO Blog where they discuss all about the update.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... -excellent

[SconnieCane]

Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't it seem like ENSO states are always delayed from what's expected? IIRC a year ago we were expected to be in a fairly strong La Nina by peak hurricane season 2024, which was one of the reasons the alarm bells were hit so hard. That La Nina took (and is still taking) several months longer to develop than anticipated back then, one of the reasons the Atlantic season had such an anomalous lull at "peak time." So if we are just getting into La Nina now, is it not a reasonable prognostication that it should linger longer into fall 2025 than currently anticipated?

[OtakuForecaster]

Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't it seem like ENSO states are always delayed from what's expected? IIRC a year ago we were expected to be in a fairly strong La Nina by peak hurricane season 2024, which was one of the reasons the alarm bells were hit so hard. That La Nina took (and is still taking) several months longer to develop than anticipated back then, one of the reasons the Atlantic season had such an anomalous lull at "peak time." So if we are just getting into La Nina now, is it not a reasonable prognostication that it should linger longer into fall 2025 than currently anticipated?

I'm not so sure that it's as simple as that; El Nino and La Nina are obviously probably the single two biggest influencing factors on the Atlantic hurricane season, but the Pacific was still actively transitioning toward a cool/La Nina the state for like the entire hurricane season, iirc? Considering that information alone, I think it's more probable that it was a combination of several different meteorological factors that led up to the unexpectedly quiet peak season; those that Phil Klotzbach from CSU mentioned several times this year (dry air, high-latitude ITCZ/monsoon trough, MJO, upper-level temperatures) appear to be the most probable culprits based on what happened during the season, but it could also be possible that some "invisible" and/or unexplained factors also contributed as well.

But yeah, at the very least, a quick transition back toward a warm ENSO state does not currently appear to be in the cards, with the very notable mention of the upcoming spring predictability barrier.

[Kingarabian]

30 day SOI is above +14.

[Dean_175]

Nino 3.4 down to -0.8C. Looks like a nina in 2025 is now likely with DJF probably meeting the the threshold. GFS shows more easterly wind anomalies to come!

i feel like this event will peak in January before possibly peaking again in late 2025.

[Kingarabian]

Nino 3.4 down to -0.8C. Looks like a nina in 2025 is now likely with DJF probably meeting the the threshold. GFS shows more easterly wind anomalies to come!

i feel like this event will peak in January before possibly peaking again in late 2025.

Because it's likely peaking or holding steady till around early spring, won't be enough time for +ENSO to setup before summer. -ENSO should be an easy call for 2025.