Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Stratton23]

Iceresistance yeah that EPS run is very mis leading, EPS has mid 60’s (64-68) for highs all across texas during that warm stretch, warm but not even close to a torch

[Brent]

I do remember when somebody here mentioned 80 degrees

Still haven't hit 70 yet and don't see one either

[Cpv17]

I do remember when somebody here mentioned 80 degrees

Still haven't hit 70 yet and don't see one either

We hit about 82 here today. Was a toasty one down here. Lots of humidity too and now it’s a foggy soupy mess outside. Nasty.

[gpsnowman]

No torch but a lot of 60s coming up with a couple 50s mixed in the days leading up to Christmas. Hopefully we start to see something towards the end of the period as we get closer to New Years. Snoozefest.

[Stratton23]

With the SSWE likely to occur between the 22nd and 29th, i greatly suspect we will continue to see mild model runs, im thinking by the time we end the first week of january the SSWE effects will be felt in the US, I do anticipate some really wild model runs then, but for now, dont expect any arctic cold until the end of the first week of january

[Stratton23]

Already seeing big hints at the 500 mb level on the 00z GFS of certain players coming together slowy that could lead to an interesting period beyond new years

[Throckmorton]

With the SSWE likely to occur between the 22nd and 29th, i greatly suspect we will continue to see mild model runs, im thinking by the time we end the first week of january the SSWE effects will be felt in the US, I do anticipate some really wild model runs then, but for now, dont expect any arctic cold until the end of the first week of january

I don't see any signs of a sudden stratospheric warming happrning anytime soon. If anything, a Canadian warming will happen during that time, which would preclude any cold weather in early January.

[Stratton23]

ThrockMorton A canadian warming is pretty unlikely and is not what is being forecasted, models have the warming starting in Asia, not canada, i dont think its gonna be a major SSWE, but rather a minor SSWE or stretching/ elongation of the PV leaning toward NA, we will see how cold NA gets in january from this

[Throckmorton]

ThrockMorton A canadian warming is pretty unlikely and is not what is being forecasted, models have the warming starting in Asia, not canada, i dont think its gonna be a major SSWE, but rather a minor SSWE or stretching/ elongation of the PV leaning toward NA, we will see how cold NA gets in january from this

A Canadian warming is being forecast by thr GFS and GFS ensembles plus the expert on the SPV, Judah Coen. None of the models forecast a SSW. Stretching is not a SSW.

[snownado]

It's wild that even without a torch this month (and in fact, several solidly below normal days), DFW is still running above average to-date temp-wise...

[snownado]

No torch but a lot of 60s coming up with a couple 50s mixed in the days leading up to Christmas. Hopefully we start to see something towards the end of the period as we get closer to New Years. Snoozefest.

Snoozefest indeed.

Easily one of the most boring Decembers I can remember, nationwide.

At least in 2021 when it torched, we also had 2 historic severe weather outbreaks to track...

[wxman22]

I do remember when somebody here mentioned 80 degrees

Still haven't hit 70 yet and don't see one either

We hit about 82 here today. Was a toasty one down here. Lots of humidity too and now it’s a foggy soupy mess outside. Nasty.

It's a different world up here LOL, I've had my heater on most days for the last 3+ weeks. We have 3 freezes in the forecast this upcoming week.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Here’s my annual Winter Cancel post.

[Brent]

Feels like spring today after being in Breckenridge especially

The trees still have leaves

Maybe some year it will snow here. I mean I was told it does anyway

[CaptinCrunch]

It's wild that even without a torch this month (and in fact, several solidly below normal days), DFW is still running above average to-date temp-wise...

In reality DFW is only 0.7 above the monthly average and that is due to the 2 days we hit 73 for high including yesterday.

For the week ahead it's clouds, rain, and highs in the mid to upper 60s through Wednesday, then Thursday through Saturday highs fall back to mid to upper 50s with lows in the mid 30s.

Precipitation for the first half of the month is -0.15" which is pretty much what you would expect in a early ENSO neutral Winter. I don't see anything in the extreme in either direction through Christmas, but there are signs headed into New Years that we could see a return to colder weather the first half of January.

Don't get caught up on the models and what you interpret because they just some computers best guess. Enjoy the ride, because it's only starting.

[Stratton23]

CaptinCrunch exactly, the show is only just beginning, honestly id rather have a warm december than a colder one, winter really starts in january for texas, its gonna be a wild ride

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Most models are showing the MJO crossing into phase 7 around Christmas day. Far out, but some models are expecting it to propagate into phase 8 into Jan, which would be perfect.

These phases favor a -EPO and PV near Hudson Bay. Been a looonnnggggg time waiting but we are getting close to a sweet spot pattern.

[Wthrfan]

I do remember when somebody here mentioned 80 degrees

Still haven't hit 70 yet and don't see one either

70 in OKC today. We have had minimal cold and barely any snow the last 2-3 years. Following the discussions here make the case for another uneventful winter.

[Stratton23]

Wthrfan way too early to say that, january is definitely lining up to be a much more interesting month, typical in texas most of our exciting winter weather events come in january/ feburary, we we have some opportunities in the coming weeks

[TropicalTundra]

Here’s my annual Winter Cancel post.

Right around this time in the Snovid Era, models were always showing snowstorms and arctic freezes between 10-15 days out. Nothing really happened December 2020.

Models will always play reverse psychology. It’s only when there’s unison between them and consistency that proves something will happen.