Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Ntxw]

Texas storm chasers posted a video of the supercell producing a funnel cloud/mesocyclone near DFW airport, i think the storm should have had a warning on it.

During the event, you could see the leaves swirling, first in one direction then the other it was wild. There were no warnings during that time, it was after it passed that parts of Dallas county was severe warned but then the cell weakened.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Texas storm chasers posted a video of the supercell producing a funnel cloud/mesocyclone near DFW airport, i think the storm should have had a warning on it.

I was at a nail salon in Grapevine right off 121 and I swear there was tornadic activity. The swirling of the rain and leaves and arrival of small hail were tell-tale maybe an F0 type event. It lasted about 2 minutes, even heard a "freight train" ish sound. I must have had about 2 inches of rain IMBY, it was so bad that my entire back patio had a river running through it and I had 2-3 inches of water standing on my drainage-challenged side yard at any given time.

[Stratton23]

Wow! That 00z GFS is likely showing the predominant pattern for january, its starting to setup just before new years eve, -EPO, -NAO, +TNH, -PNA with a trough hanging back west, i really do think thats going to be the setup for most of january

[Throckmorton]

Increasingly looks like a full–blown Canadian warming in the upper stratosphere is coming around January 1st. That would mean a mild to warm first half of January and possibly all of January.

[Cpv17]

I don’t think we can expect the switch to just instantly flip as we enter the new year. I can see us getting some fronts that knock us down to near average for the next 2-3 weeks, but nothing crazy. The first thing we need to happen is our source region (NW Canada) will need to cool down significantly (and I don’t see this happening, even as we get into the first week of January). It might take a while for that to happen so I’m not expecting any possibilities of cold air to happen till at least the second week of January, possibly longer than that.

[Ntxw]

One thing the models are coming together on...Christmas will be a warm one this year and the days after will be quite warm for the continent as a whole.

[Brent]

This thread makes for a good read sometimes(the dueling posts earlier) but yeah it's clear nothing is happening til January sometime

I just hope it's not too long into January you know it was supposed to have happened in December too. i remember the analogs

[rwfromkansas]

Wow! That 00z GFS is likely showing the predominant pattern for january, its starting to setup just before new years eve, -EPO, -NAO, +TNH, -PNA with a trough hanging back west, i really do think thats going to be the setup for most of january

Got to love this thread.

One good post.

Then the one right after basically says the opposite, January will be a torch, too.

If that's the case, then we can do a winter cancel almost.

I used to mock climate change. But, I remember when I first married my wife there were snowstorms in KS and even here at my wife's family in Abilene in December. I haven't gone home to a good snow in many years, and there just hasn't been a storm on the drive in about a decade. I don't expect cold all the time, but 70-80 on Christmas is too much.

[Ntxw]

This thread makes for a good read sometimes(the dueling posts earlier) but yeah it's clear nothing is happening til January sometime

I just hope it's not too long into January you know it was supposed to have happened in December too. i remember the analogs

This has been a recurring theme. Similar analogs at 500mb do not always translate to surface outcomes. Warmer period.

[CaptinCrunch]

I don’t think we can expect the switch to just instantly flip as we enter the new year. I can see us getting some fronts that knock us down to near average for the next 2-3 weeks, but nothing crazy. The first thing we need to happen is our source region (NW Canada) will need to cool down significantly (and I don’t see this happening, even as we get into the first week of January). It might take a while for that to happen so I’m not expecting any possibilities of cold air to happen till at least the second week of January, possibly longer than that.

This hours Temperatures
Hot spot in Northwest Territories: -13.1 °C .......8.4 °F Cape Providence
Cold spot in Northwest Territories: -44.1 °C ... -47.4 °F Rabbit Kettle

Looking at the current temps across much of NW Canada, yeah it's pretty cold, just need a delivery mechanism.

[Wthrfan]

Wow! That 00z GFS is likely showing the predominant pattern for january, its starting to setup just before new years eve, -EPO, -NAO, +TNH, -PNA with a trough hanging back west, i really do think thats going to be the setup for most of january

Got to love this thread.

One good post.

Then the one right after basically says the opposite, January will be a torch, too.

If that's the case, then we can do a winter cancel almost.

I used to mock climate change. But, I remember when I first married my wife there were snowstorms in KS and even here at my wife's family in Abilene in December. I haven't gone home to a good snow in many years, and there just hasn't been a storm on the drive in about a decade. I don't expect cold all the time, but 70-80 on Christmas is too much.

I don't want to start any debates, but I'm with you. Just looking at the climatology over most of the last 15-20 years, but especially the last 10 or so shows notable changes. The upper midwest has really warmed, especially during the winter season.

[txtwister78]

One thing the models are coming together on...Christmas will be a warm one this year and the days after will be quite warm for the continent as a whole.

Yup, however another thing models are starting to come together on is the threat for some severe weather potentially around Christmas or just after. Something to watch.

[Ntxw]

One thing the models are coming together on...Christmas will be a warm one this year and the days after will be quite warm for the continent as a whole.

Yup, however another thing models are starting to come together on is the threat for some severe weather potentially around Christmas or just after. Something to watch.

With the big warm up coming for the interior, there will be instability. Think our annual December severe outbreak somewhere in the US might be on tap.

[HockeyTx82]

Wow! That 00z GFS is likely showing the predominant pattern for january, its starting to setup just before new years eve, -EPO, -NAO, +TNH, -PNA with a trough hanging back west, i really do think thats going to be the setup for most of january

Got to love this thread.

One good post.

Then the one right after basically says the opposite, January will be a torch, too.

If that's the case, then we can do a winter cancel almost.

I used to mock climate change. But, I remember when I first married my wife there were snowstorms in KS and even here at my wife's family in Abilene in December. I haven't gone home to a good snow in many years, and there just hasn't been a storm on the drive in about a decade. I don't expect cold all the time, but 70-80 on Christmas is too much.

So have we looked at the other temps and Winters as far back as records go? I'm not questioning your theory or concern but I see posts like this all the time.

Also records go only so far back so we don't know what happened before.

I think the general consensus is that ice caps were as fsr south as the north part of the USA, at one point 20,000 years ago, and us humans did not melt them.

I'm not denying we can impact the earth, but I also wonder if each of our relative short existence and experiences sometimes make us think things are worse or better now then thing were back in the day.

The earth has been around a long time, and until the sun explodes or a giant meteor hits and blows it up, the earth will be around with or without us.

Yes, I remember the winter of 89 and now 2021, two extremes that stick in my head, but out of the days I've been alive since 1982 and have lived in Texas, Christmas and winter have not always delivered.

Plus it's all very relative if the airport gets snow and I don't, does that mean it snowed in Texas that day because records would show it did but my house didn't get any. And on the contrary if it snowed at my house but not at the airport does that mean it snowed that day? Records would say no.

https://www.iweathernet.com/dfw-weather ... since-1898

[Cpv17]

This thread makes for a good read sometimes(the dueling posts earlier) but yeah it's clear nothing is happening til January sometime

I just hope it's not too long into January you know it was supposed to have happened in December too. i remember the analogs

I’m not completely sold on a cold flip in January quite yet. My confidence in that is only about 40-50% atm. Canada looks to be really warm to kickoff the new year and till I see more evidence that our source region will get cold, I’m reluctant to believe any talk of cold weather.

[Brent]

I mean even Tulsa has had plenty of winters it barely snowed... Actually back in like 1901 is the only time the airport reported no snow. It's not a recent phenomenon to have winters like the last couple(which still had a little snow btw) but I think part of my issue was seeing how Colorado was way ahead of schedule and yet we haven't seen one flake here

Yeah I know our time is coming but I would like to know what year it will be

[Ntxw]

Wow! That 00z GFS is likely showing the predominant pattern for january, its starting to setup just before new years eve, -EPO, -NAO, +TNH, -PNA with a trough hanging back west, i really do think thats going to be the setup for most of january

Got to love this thread.

One good post.

Then the one right after basically says the opposite, January will be a torch, too.

If that's the case, then we can do a winter cancel almost.

I used to mock climate change. But, I remember when I first married my wife there were snowstorms in KS and even here at my wife's family in Abilene in December. I haven't gone home to a good snow in many years, and there just hasn't been a storm on the drive in about a decade. I don't expect cold all the time, but 70-80 on Christmas is too much.

So have we looked at the other temps and Winters as far back as records go? I'm not questioning your theory or concern but I see posts like this all the time.

Also records go only so far back so we don't know what happened before.

I think the general consensus is that ice caps were as fsr south as the north part of the USA, at one point 20,000 years ago, and us humans did not melt them.

I'm not denying we can impact the earth, but I also wonder if each of our relative short existence and experiences sometimes make us think things are worse or better now then thing were back in the day.

The earth has been around a long time, and until the sun explodes or a giant meteor hits and blows it up, the earth will be around with or without us.

Yes, I remember the winter of 89 and now 2021, two extremes that stick in my head, but out of the days I've been alive since 1982 and have lived in Texas, Christmas and winter have not always delivered.

Plus it's all very relative if the airport gets snow and I don't, does that mean it snowed in Texas that day because records would show it did but my house didn't get any. And on the contrary if it snowed at my house but not at the airport does that mean it snowed that day? Records would say no.

https://www.iweathernet.com/dfw-weather ... since-1898

We don't need to go that far, as our lifespans are far too short relative to the Earth. Not debating anecdotes here, perception is often skewed. What is true and the numbers back is, 30 year normals are changing for the warmer. The current 10 year span is warmer than the prior 10, which was warmer than the prior 10 on average. So If you're 20+ you will notice the change. We can blame whatever we want, CC, UHI, the groundhog, but the numbers are telling us what is perceived as normal is shifting in a lifetime or less.

Snow is different, there is still randomness in that since we don't get much to begin with and one event can make or break a season. The warmer stretches outnumber the colder ones so the window of opportunities is being reduced. Below is an example of how an analog fails. The troughs today in this example is much weaker than in the past, and ridges stronger. This means the upper atmosphere is warmer overall. Ridge/trough placement is not a bad comparison, only the expanse is different.

[DallasAg]

I mean even Tulsa has had plenty of winters it barely snowed... Actually back in like 1901 is the only time the airport reported no snow. It's not a recent phenomenon to have winters like the last couple(which still had a little snow btw) but I think part of my issue was seeing how Colorado was way ahead of schedule and yet we haven't seen one flake here

Yeah I know our time is coming but I would like to know what year it will be

The weather in CO has been interesting this fall. A couple of early big dumps and cold blasts, but since then it's been really quiet. Crested Butte normally gets 35" in December. Month to date they've had 1.0" (after 40" in November!) and the forecast is pretty dry through Christmas Day. Definitely need to get the storm track fired up again.

A warm Christmas will be good for the kiddos getting bikes from Santa! Look on the bright side!

[rwfromkansas]

Wow! That 00z GFS is likely showing the predominant pattern for january, its starting to setup just before new years eve, -EPO, -NAO, +TNH, -PNA with a trough hanging back west, i really do think thats going to be the setup for most of january

Got to love this thread.

One good post.

Then the one right after basically says the opposite, January will be a torch, too.

If that's the case, then we can do a winter cancel almost.

I used to mock climate change. But, I remember when I first married my wife there were snowstorms in KS and even here at my wife's family in Abilene in December. I haven't gone home to a good snow in many years, and there just hasn't been a storm on the drive in about a decade. I don't expect cold all the time, but 70-80 on Christmas is too much.

So have we looked at the other temps and Winters as far back as records go? I'm not questioning your theory or concern but I see posts like this all the time.

Also records go only so far back so we don't know what happened before.

I think the general consensus is that ice caps were as fsr south as the north part of the USA, at one point 20,000 years ago, and us humans did not melt them.

I'm not denying we can impact the earth, but I also wonder if each of our relative short existence and experiences sometimes make us think things are worse or better now then thing were back in the day.

The earth has been around a long time, and until the sun explodes or a giant meteor hits and blows it up, the earth will be around with or without us.

Yes, I remember the winter of 89 and now 2021, two extremes that stick in my head, but out of the days I've been alive since 1982 and have lived in Texas, Christmas and winter have not always delivered.

Plus it's all very relative if the airport gets snow and I don't, does that mean it snowed in Texas that day because records would show it did but my house didn't get any. And on the contrary if it snowed at my house but not at the airport does that mean it snowed that day? Records would say no.

https://www.iweathernet.com/dfw-weather ... since-1898

Good points. It often snows in just Denton/Collin while raining in Dallas, for example.

Our perspectives can be skewed. The cold of some recent winters made us forgot the relative warmth in other times.

It just does take one storm.

[Ntxw]

Back to the medium long range. Our next real chance at cold moving south will be sometime after the first week of January when the high latitudes shift from Pacific trough to Pacific/AK ridge.