Texas Winter 2024-2025
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
BIG -NAO blocking showing up on all guidance, not only is that good for sustaining cold blasts, but also helps to really slow down storm systems
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Between 1989/90 and 2023/24, and based on LOESS curves, meteorological winter average temperatures have changed as follows (in ° F):
+5.2...Del Rio
+4.0...Abilene, TX
+3.9...Laredo
+3.8...Amarillo
+3.8...College Station
+3.7...Brownsville
+3.7...El Paso
+3.6...Houston
+2.9...Corpus Christi
+2.9...Dallas / Fort Worth
+2.5...Beaumont / Port Arthur
+2.5...San Antonio
+2.5...Wichita Falls
+2.3...McAlester
+2.0...Austin Camp Mabry
+2.0...Longview
+2.0...San Angelo
+1.6...Ponca City
+1.2...Tulsa
+1.0...Lubbock
+1.0...Waco
+0.8...Oklahoma City
+5.2...Del Rio
+4.0...Abilene, TX
+3.9...Laredo
+3.8...Amarillo
+3.8...College Station
+3.7...Brownsville
+3.7...El Paso
+3.6...Houston
+2.9...Corpus Christi
+2.9...Dallas / Fort Worth
+2.5...Beaumont / Port Arthur
+2.5...San Antonio
+2.5...Wichita Falls
+2.3...McAlester
+2.0...Austin Camp Mabry
+2.0...Longview
+2.0...San Angelo
+1.6...Ponca City
+1.2...Tulsa
+1.0...Lubbock
+1.0...Waco
+0.8...Oklahoma City
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Between 1989/90 and 2023/24, and based on LOESS curves, meteorological winter average snowfall has changed as follows (in inches):
+2.6...Oklahoma City
+2.4...Lubbock
+1.8...Dallas / Fort Worth
+1.8...Tulsa
+1.2...Wichita Falls
+0.9...Austin Camp Mabry
+0.8...Waco
+0.7...Abilene TX
+0.4...San Antonio
+0.0...San Angelo
–0.7...Houston
–2.3...Amarillo
+2.6...Oklahoma City
+2.4...Lubbock
+1.8...Dallas / Fort Worth
+1.8...Tulsa
+1.2...Wichita Falls
+0.9...Austin Camp Mabry
+0.8...Waco
+0.7...Abilene TX
+0.4...San Antonio
+0.0...San Angelo
–0.7...Houston
–2.3...Amarillo
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Throckmorton wrote:Between 1989/90 and 2023/24, and based on LOESS curves, meteorological winter average snowfall has changed as follows (in inches):
+2.6...Oklahoma City
+2.4...Lubbock
+1.8...Dallas / Fort Worth
+1.8...Tulsa
+1.2...Wichita Falls
+0.9...Austin Camp Mabry
+0.8...Waco
+0.7...Abilene TX
+0.4...San Antonio
+0.0...San Angelo
–0.7...Houston
–2.3...Amarillo
So if I'm reading this correctly, average snowfall in DFW has actually increased 1.8" over the past 40 years, even despite the winters getting warmer.
Interesting...
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Throckmorton wrote:Between 1989/90 and 2023/24, and based on LOESS curves, meteorological winter average snowfall has changed as follows (in inches):
+2.6...Oklahoma City
+2.4...Lubbock
+1.8...Dallas / Fort Worth
+1.8...Tulsa
+1.2...Wichita Falls
+0.9...Austin Camp Mabry
+0.8...Waco
+0.7...Abilene TX
+0.4...San Antonio
+0.0...San Angelo
–0.7...Houston
–2.3...Amarillo
This must be inflated by 2011 and 2021 here
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#neversummer
- TeamPlayersBlue
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Brent wrote:Throckmorton wrote:Between 1989/90 and 2023/24, and based on LOESS curves, meteorological winter average snowfall has changed as follows (in inches):
+2.6...Oklahoma City
+2.4...Lubbock
+1.8...Dallas / Fort Worth
+1.8...Tulsa
+1.2...Wichita Falls
+0.9...Austin Camp Mabry
+0.8...Waco
+0.7...Abilene TX
+0.4...San Antonio
+0.0...San Angelo
–0.7...Houston
–2.3...Amarillo
This must be inflated by 2011 and 2021 here
Yeah 2011 they had like 14" or something. Im surprised by Houston. We had a large snow drought in the 90's but the 2008-2021 time frame had multiple snow events. Maybe 6 or so.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Brent wrote:Throckmorton wrote:Between 1989/90 and 2023/24, and based on LOESS curves, meteorological winter average snowfall has changed as follows (in inches):
+2.6...Oklahoma City
+2.4...Lubbock
+1.8...Dallas / Fort Worth
+1.8...Tulsa
+1.2...Wichita Falls
+0.9...Austin Camp Mabry
+0.8...Waco
+0.7...Abilene TX
+0.4...San Antonio
+0.0...San Angelo
–0.7...Houston
–2.3...Amarillo
This must be inflated by 2011 and 2021 here
Yeah 2011 they had like 14" or something. Im surprised by Houston. We had a large snow drought in the 90's but the 2008-2021 time frame had multiple snow events. Maybe 6 or so.
Between 2008-2021, I only had snow twice. 2009 and 2017 (both in December). We didn’t get any snow here during the Feb 21 outbreak, just sleet and freezing rain.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
The MJO just moved into Phase 6, so hopefully we can load in the cold in the source region and get an ECR.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Stratton23 wrote:GFS 12z has arctic air on new years lol
Where? In the Arctic?
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Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
HockeyTx82 lol in the lower 48, im sticking with my original thoughts of a pattern change around new years, i rarely ever am this confident a switch is coming, but i see more than enough evidence and agreement in the ensembles at least with the 500 mb height setup that a change is coming, how cold is obviously no point in saying right now though
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Brent wrote:Throckmorton wrote:Between 1989/90 and 2023/24, and based on LOESS curves, meteorological winter average snowfall has changed as follows (in inches):
+2.6...Oklahoma City
+2.4...Lubbock
+1.8...Dallas / Fort Worth
+1.8...Tulsa
+1.2...Wichita Falls
+0.9...Austin Camp Mabry
+0.8...Waco
+0.7...Abilene TX
+0.4...San Antonio
+0.0...San Angelo
–0.7...Houston
–2.3...Amarillo
This must be inflated by 2011 and 2021 here
It only takes one storm.
So what exactly are we all complaining about our average snow totals are up!
But to my point shift that snow band north or south and all of a sudden everything changes if the actual airport doesn't cash in.
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
There is usually some sort of drastic swing in the opposite direction after lengthy, above normal stretches. To me, the further above normal it gets, the more severe the transition is. Def more interesting than zonal weather.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
WacoWx wrote:There is usually some sort of drastic swing in the opposite direction after lengthy, above normal stretches. To me, the further above normal it gets, the more severe the transition is. Def more interesting than zonal weather.
Yep. Mother Nature has to balance things out somehow.
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- txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Still some severe weather signals showing up around Christmas Eve via the models. Euro and ICON in particular would bring severe weather into portions of SCTX. Return flow with moisture/60's dewpoints look to be in place with perhaps a negatively tilted trough moving through. Definitely something to watch into the weekend as models come into better agreement.
Could be another round a few days after Christmas as well perhaps a little further east. Active period potentially shaping up to close out 2024.
Could be another round a few days after Christmas as well perhaps a little further east. Active period potentially shaping up to close out 2024.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Brent wrote:Throckmorton wrote:Between 1989/90 and 2023/24, and based on LOESS curves, meteorological winter average snowfall has changed as follows (in inches):
+2.6...Oklahoma City
+2.4...Lubbock
+1.8...Dallas / Fort Worth
+1.8...Tulsa
+1.2...Wichita Falls
+0.9...Austin Camp Mabry
+0.8...Waco
+0.7...Abilene TX
+0.4...San Antonio
+0.0...San Angelo
–0.7...Houston
–2.3...Amarillo
This must be inflated by 2011 and 2021 here
That's not how LOESS curves work.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
A Canadian warming of the upper stratosphere is still being forecast for the end of this month and the beginning of January by the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM ensembles. According to them, it would be centered in the northwest U. S. plus adjacent Canada, but it would provide anomalous warmth over the western half of the U. S.
Judah Cohen tweeted yesterday:
Judah Cohen tweeted yesterday:
The #PolarVortex has learned a new trick. We can now add "soak" to the "lather, rinse, repeat" ad nauseam cycle. GFS & European models fully on board the Canadian warming train. For those previously intimidated by the cold for the New Years polar plunge, this might be your year.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Of course thats forecast to happen, mother nature really isnt going to let us have even a normal winter this year
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Stratton23 wrote:Of course thats forecast to happen, mother nature really isnt going to let us have even a normal winter this year
Nah, we’ll have some cold shots.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Cpv17 I hope so, because the last thing we need is another month of anomlous warmth ( technically the first half of december was near average) and a canadian warming would definitely be the worst case for that
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