Texas Winter 2024-2025

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Stratton23
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#521 Postby Stratton23 » Wed Dec 18, 2024 12:13 am

BIG -NAO blocking showing up on all guidance, not only is that good for sustaining cold blasts, but also helps to really slow down storm systems
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#522 Postby Throckmorton » Wed Dec 18, 2024 2:12 am

Between 1989/90 and 2023/24, and based on LOESS curves, meteorological winter average temperatures have changed as follows (in ° F):

+5.2...Del Rio
+4.0...Abilene, TX
+3.9...Laredo
+3.8...Amarillo
+3.8...College Station
+3.7...Brownsville
+3.7...El Paso
+3.6...Houston
+2.9...Corpus Christi
+2.9...Dallas / Fort Worth
+2.5...Beaumont / Port Arthur
+2.5...San Antonio
+2.5...Wichita Falls
+2.3...McAlester
+2.0...Austin Camp Mabry
+2.0...Longview
+2.0...San Angelo
+1.6...Ponca City
+1.2...Tulsa
+1.0...Lubbock
+1.0...Waco
+0.8...Oklahoma City
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#523 Postby Throckmorton » Wed Dec 18, 2024 2:24 am

Between 1989/90 and 2023/24, and based on LOESS curves, meteorological winter average snowfall has changed as follows (in inches):

+2.6...Oklahoma City
+2.4...Lubbock
+1.8...Dallas / Fort Worth
+1.8...Tulsa
+1.2...Wichita Falls
+0.9...Austin Camp Mabry
+0.8...Waco
+0.7...Abilene TX
+0.4...San Antonio
+0.0...San Angelo
–0.7...Houston
–2.3...Amarillo
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#524 Postby snownado » Wed Dec 18, 2024 10:15 am

Throckmorton wrote:Between 1989/90 and 2023/24, and based on LOESS curves, meteorological winter average snowfall has changed as follows (in inches):

+2.6...Oklahoma City
+2.4...Lubbock
+1.8...Dallas / Fort Worth
+1.8...Tulsa
+1.2...Wichita Falls
+0.9...Austin Camp Mabry
+0.8...Waco
+0.7...Abilene TX
+0.4...San Antonio
+0.0...San Angelo
–0.7...Houston
–2.3...Amarillo


So if I'm reading this correctly, average snowfall in DFW has actually increased 1.8" over the past 40 years, even despite the winters getting warmer.

Interesting...
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#525 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 18, 2024 10:48 am

Throckmorton wrote:Between 1989/90 and 2023/24, and based on LOESS curves, meteorological winter average snowfall has changed as follows (in inches):

+2.6...Oklahoma City
+2.4...Lubbock
+1.8...Dallas / Fort Worth
+1.8...Tulsa
+1.2...Wichita Falls
+0.9...Austin Camp Mabry
+0.8...Waco
+0.7...Abilene TX
+0.4...San Antonio
+0.0...San Angelo
–0.7...Houston
–2.3...Amarillo


This must be inflated by 2011 and 2021 here
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#526 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Dec 18, 2024 10:50 am

Brent wrote:
Throckmorton wrote:Between 1989/90 and 2023/24, and based on LOESS curves, meteorological winter average snowfall has changed as follows (in inches):

+2.6...Oklahoma City
+2.4...Lubbock
+1.8...Dallas / Fort Worth
+1.8...Tulsa
+1.2...Wichita Falls
+0.9...Austin Camp Mabry
+0.8...Waco
+0.7...Abilene TX
+0.4...San Antonio
+0.0...San Angelo
–0.7...Houston
–2.3...Amarillo


This must be inflated by 2011 and 2021 here


Yeah 2011 they had like 14" or something. Im surprised by Houston. We had a large snow drought in the 90's but the 2008-2021 time frame had multiple snow events. Maybe 6 or so.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#527 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Dec 18, 2024 11:01 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
Brent wrote:
Throckmorton wrote:Between 1989/90 and 2023/24, and based on LOESS curves, meteorological winter average snowfall has changed as follows (in inches):

+2.6...Oklahoma City
+2.4...Lubbock
+1.8...Dallas / Fort Worth
+1.8...Tulsa
+1.2...Wichita Falls
+0.9...Austin Camp Mabry
+0.8...Waco
+0.7...Abilene TX
+0.4...San Antonio
+0.0...San Angelo
–0.7...Houston
–2.3...Amarillo


This must be inflated by 2011 and 2021 here


Yeah 2011 they had like 14" or something. Im surprised by Houston. We had a large snow drought in the 90's but the 2008-2021 time frame had multiple snow events. Maybe 6 or so.


Between 2008-2021, I only had snow twice. 2009 and 2017 (both in December). We didn’t get any snow here during the Feb 21 outbreak, just sleet and freezing rain.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#528 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Dec 18, 2024 11:17 am

The MJO just moved into Phase 6, so hopefully we can load in the cold in the source region and get an ECR.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#529 Postby Stratton23 » Wed Dec 18, 2024 12:13 pm

GFS 12z has arctic air on new years lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#530 Postby HockeyTx82 » Wed Dec 18, 2024 1:22 pm

Stratton23 wrote:GFS 12z has arctic air on new years lol


Where? In the Arctic?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#531 Postby Stratton23 » Wed Dec 18, 2024 1:26 pm

HockeyTx82 lol in the lower 48, im sticking with my original thoughts of a pattern change around new years, i rarely ever am this confident a switch is coming, but i see more than enough evidence and agreement in the ensembles at least with the 500 mb height setup that a change is coming, how cold is obviously no point in saying right now though
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#532 Postby HockeyTx82 » Wed Dec 18, 2024 1:32 pm

Brent wrote:
Throckmorton wrote:Between 1989/90 and 2023/24, and based on LOESS curves, meteorological winter average snowfall has changed as follows (in inches):

+2.6...Oklahoma City
+2.4...Lubbock
+1.8...Dallas / Fort Worth
+1.8...Tulsa
+1.2...Wichita Falls
+0.9...Austin Camp Mabry
+0.8...Waco
+0.7...Abilene TX
+0.4...San Antonio
+0.0...San Angelo
–0.7...Houston
–2.3...Amarillo


This must be inflated by 2011 and 2021 here


It only takes one storm.

So what exactly are we all complaining about our average snow totals are up!

But to my point shift that snow band north or south and all of a sudden everything changes if the actual airport doesn't cash in.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#533 Postby WacoWx » Wed Dec 18, 2024 1:37 pm

There is usually some sort of drastic swing in the opposite direction after lengthy, above normal stretches. To me, the further above normal it gets, the more severe the transition is. Def more interesting than zonal weather.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#534 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Dec 18, 2024 2:07 pm

WacoWx wrote:There is usually some sort of drastic swing in the opposite direction after lengthy, above normal stretches. To me, the further above normal it gets, the more severe the transition is. Def more interesting than zonal weather.


Yep. Mother Nature has to balance things out somehow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#535 Postby txtwister78 » Wed Dec 18, 2024 3:46 pm

Still some severe weather signals showing up around Christmas Eve via the models. Euro and ICON in particular would bring severe weather into portions of SCTX. Return flow with moisture/60's dewpoints look to be in place with perhaps a negatively tilted trough moving through. Definitely something to watch into the weekend as models come into better agreement.

Could be another round a few days after Christmas as well perhaps a little further east. Active period potentially shaping up to close out 2024.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#536 Postby Throckmorton » Wed Dec 18, 2024 5:18 pm

Brent wrote:
Throckmorton wrote:Between 1989/90 and 2023/24, and based on LOESS curves, meteorological winter average snowfall has changed as follows (in inches):

+2.6...Oklahoma City
+2.4...Lubbock
+1.8...Dallas / Fort Worth
+1.8...Tulsa
+1.2...Wichita Falls
+0.9...Austin Camp Mabry
+0.8...Waco
+0.7...Abilene TX
+0.4...San Antonio
+0.0...San Angelo
–0.7...Houston
–2.3...Amarillo


This must be inflated by 2011 and 2021 here


That's not how LOESS curves work.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#537 Postby Throckmorton » Wed Dec 18, 2024 5:32 pm

A Canadian warming of the upper stratosphere is still being forecast for the end of this month and the beginning of January by the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM ensembles. According to them, it would be centered in the northwest U. S. plus adjacent Canada, but it would provide anomalous warmth over the western half of the U. S.

Judah Cohen tweeted yesterday:

The #PolarVortex has learned a new trick. We can now add "soak" to the "lather, rinse, repeat" ad nauseam cycle. GFS & European models fully on board the Canadian warming train. For those previously intimidated by the cold for the New Years polar plunge, this might be your year.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#538 Postby Stratton23 » Wed Dec 18, 2024 6:34 pm

Of course thats forecast to happen, mother nature really isnt going to let us have even a normal winter this year
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#539 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Dec 18, 2024 6:51 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Of course thats forecast to happen, mother nature really isnt going to let us have even a normal winter this year


Nah, we’ll have some cold shots.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#540 Postby Stratton23 » Wed Dec 18, 2024 6:53 pm

Cpv17 I hope so, because the last thing we need is another month of anomlous warmth ( technically the first half of december was near average) and a canadian warming would definitely be the worst case for that
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