Early Thoughts on the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Category5Kaiju]

Not sure if the 2025 indicators thread got taken down due to it being a bit too early, so I've decided to start an early, minor thread for those curious to think about what could happen next season.

At this point I think unless we see an unprecedented cool Atlantic during peak season (at least according to recent times), we'll probably have another above-average season. Exactly how much so will probably depend on the ENSO state and if we see abnormal warming in the extratropics like in 2022 and this year.

[kevin]

We have now had 9 Atlantic hurricane seasons in a row with at least average activity. That is by far the longest streak of Atlantic seasons without a 'below normal' season since the database started in 1851. During these 9 years we have had al sort of ENSO states and other background conditions, but whether these have been favorable or unfavorable the season has always been able to deliver at least enough decent systems for an average season.

On the one hand this could lead to an argument that we're bound to have below average seasons again soon. But if there is a structural reason for this activity then the opposite might be the case. The last three years (2022, 2023, 2024) all have the warmest SST values in the Atlantic since reliable records started. And the last 5 - 8 years have also all been the warmest in terms of sea temperature both globally and in the Atlantic. If we assume that this process of global ocean water warming continues for the foreseeable future, which is reasonable imo considering the general change in the climate, then my guess is that we're very likely to continue seeing at least average seasons from now on. Even if the ENSO state is unfavorable, the high SST values should be enough to push most seasons to average activity at the very least. Below average seasons will continue to exist, but will become rarer as time goes on (in fact they already are much rarer than they were 30 years ago, which was already well into the satellite era).

The only kink in this argumentation is the lack of extremely active WPAC seasons during the last few years, as it's the only basin in the world which has consistently had average or below-average activity the last few years. This shows that even higher SST values are not guaranteed to overpower unfavorable background conditions. So in the end my early thoughts are: no clue regarding the details, but probably at least average activity.

[WalterWhite]

We have now had 9 Atlantic hurricane seasons in a row with at least average activity. That is by far the longest streak of Atlantic seasons without a 'below normal' season since the database started in 1851. During these 9 years we have had al sort of ENSO states and other background conditions, but whether these have been favorable or unfavorable the season has always been able to deliver at least enough decent systems for an average season.

On the one hand this could lead to an argument that we're bound to have below average seasons again soon. But if there is a structural reason for this activity then the opposite might be the case. The last three years (2022, 2023, 2024) all have the warmest SST values in the Atlantic since reliable records started. And the last 5 - 8 years have also all been the warmest in terms of sea temperature both globally and in the Atlantic. If we assume that this process of global ocean water warming continues for the foreseeable future, which is reasonable imo considering the general change in the climate, then my guess is that we're very likely to continue seeing at least average seasons from now on. Even if the ENSO state is unfavorable, the high SST values should be enough to push most seasons to average activity at the very least. Below average seasons will continue to exist, but will become rarer as time goes on (in fact they already are much rarer than they were 30 years ago, which was already well into the satellite era).

The only kink in this argumentation is the lack of extremely active WPAC seasons during the last few years, as it's the only basin in the world which has consistently had average or below-average activity the last few years. This shows that even higher SST values are not guaranteed to overpower unfavorable background conditions. So in the end my early thoughts are: no clue regarding the details, but probably at least average activity.

The last few years have been marked by a consistent negative PDO, which stunts activity in the Western Pacific.

[HurricaneRyan]

One thing that can be said about 2025 is that it will be the second year after the 2023 El Nino. It's been proven that two years after an El Nino usually leads to a destructive and powerful storm striking the US. 2017 and 2020 were both two years after El Nino years and we had multiple big landfalls those years. In recent years though, almost every season since 2015 has also had at least one bad storm regardless of the ENSO state, with 2023 being the one year we ironically didn't have that bad of a storm.

[Category5Kaiju]

We have now had 9 Atlantic hurricane seasons in a row with at least average activity. That is by far the longest streak of Atlantic seasons without a 'below normal' season since the database started in 1851. During these 9 years we have had al sort of ENSO states and other background conditions, but whether these have been favorable or unfavorable the season has always been able to deliver at least enough decent systems for an average season.

On the one hand this could lead to an argument that we're bound to have below average seasons again soon. But if there is a structural reason for this activity then the opposite might be the case. The last three years (2022, 2023, 2024) all have the warmest SST values in the Atlantic since reliable records started. And the last 5 - 8 years have also all been the warmest in terms of sea temperature both globally and in the Atlantic. If we assume that this process of global ocean water warming continues for the foreseeable future, which is reasonable imo considering the general change in the climate, then my guess is that we're very likely to continue seeing at least average seasons from now on. Even if the ENSO state is unfavorable, the high SST values should be enough to push most seasons to average activity at the very least. Below average seasons will continue to exist, but will become rarer as time goes on (in fact they already are much rarer than they were 30 years ago, which was already well into the satellite era).

The only kink in this argumentation is the lack of extremely active WPAC seasons during the last few years, as it's the only basin in the world which has consistently had average or below-average activity the last few years. This shows that even higher SST values are not guaranteed to overpower unfavorable background conditions. So in the end my early thoughts are: no clue regarding the details, but probably at least average activity.

Additionally, the Atlantic seems to be stuck in a dangerous pattern (at least since 2015) in which the basin has spawned a very high-end Category 4 system (155 mph) or a bona fide Category 5 every single year. Even 2022, the most recent year that almost ended up below average, saw a Category 5 storm. I personally don't see why this streak would end if the Atlantic stays as warm as it is or gets warmer. I'm willing to bet that next year's strongest storm will tell the same story.

[WalterWhite]

Bold, half-joking prediction (do not take this too seriously): We will exceed 30 storms and 200 ACE in 2025, and have a pre-season and post-season storm. This has to happen at some point, right?

[AnnularCane]

Still waiting for my post-season, bonus, caboose storm.

[TallyTracker]

With the lower activity in the WPAC, I wonder if the northern hemisphere average is a better measure of tropical cyclone activity. Occasionally we have anomalous years with all basins above average; however, it’s more common to have upticks in one area and lower activity in another. In 2024, the EPAC was way below average with WPAC ACE running below average. The Atlantic was borderline hyperactive to compensate. I’d be interested to see the overall global hemispheric trends to make a better assessment of potential TC activity in any given basin in a year. This may tie into the Atlantic Mutil-decade Oscillation which we have still only observed a couple of cycles for.

[FireRat]

My own personal hunch tells me 2025 will be a tricky and dangerous season to watch out for, and may be more east based too. Imagine a busier version of a mix of 1965 & 1989, which had hurricanes Betsy and Hugo.
Another possible analog could be 2017.
Perhaps the 2nd year after El Niño effect could give this season 1989 & 2017 vibes. Big impact seasons often come in duos, and 2025 could be one such case.
It will remain to be seen if next year also is hyperactive.

[WalterWhite]

My own personal hunch tells me 2025 will be a tricky and dangerous season to watch out for, and may be more east based too. Imagine a busier version of a mix of 1965 & 1989, which had hurricanes Betsy and Hugo.
Another possible analog could be 2017.
Perhaps the 2nd year after El Niño effect could give this season 1989 & 2017 vibes. Big impact seasons often come in duos, and 2025 could be one such case.
It will remain to be seen if next year also is hyperactive.

Remember that 2020 was also the second year after an El Niño

[FireRat]

My own personal hunch tells me 2025 will be a tricky and dangerous season to watch out for, and may be more east based too. Imagine a busier version of a mix of 1965 & 1989, which had hurricanes Betsy and Hugo.
Another possible analog could be 2017.
Perhaps the 2nd year after El Niño effect could give this season 1989 & 2017 vibes. Big impact seasons often come in duos, and 2025 could be one such case.
It will remain to be seen if next year also is hyperactive.

Remember that 2020 was also the second year after an El Niño

Oh yeah, 2020 was another such year, oh boy!

[Lightning48]

Is there any scientific evidence that we are in a cyclical period where storms like they did last year due to the Jetstream or whatever,will continue to affect the West Coast of Florida? Please advise.

[Ptarmigan]

I do not want to think about 2025 season. Since it is second year after El Nino, that has me concerned.

[ChrisH-UK]

My own personal hunch tells me 2025 will be a tricky and dangerous season to watch out for, and may be more east based too. Imagine a busier version of a mix of 1965 & 1989, which had hurricanes Betsy and Hugo.
Another possible analog could be 2017.
Perhaps the 2nd year after El Niño effect could give this season 1989 & 2017 vibes. Big impact seasons often come in duos, and 2025 could be one such case.
It will remain to be seen if next year also is hyperactive.

Remember that 2020 was also the second year after an El Niño

Oh yeah, 2020 was another such year, oh boy!

Fortunately the conditions that made 2020 are unlikely to happen again at least for a long time I hope. With covid shutting down factories, transportation, etc worldwide with the pollution removed more heat got down to the surface and more instability in the atmosphere. This led to more TC forming than usual.

[FireRat]

Remember that 2020 was also the second year after an El Niño

Oh yeah, 2020 was another such year, oh boy!

Fortunately the conditions that made 2020 are unlikely to happen again at least for a long time I hope. With covid shutting down factories, transportation, etc worldwide with the pollution removed more heat got down to the surface and more instability in the atmosphere. This led to more TC forming than usual.

Kinda nuts how the shutting down of these human activities actually made it worse, counterintuitive as heck!
2020 will be studied for a long time I believe.

[Blown Away]

Is there any scientific evidence that we are in a cyclical period where storms like they did last year due to the Jetstream or whatever, will continue to affect the West Coast of Florida? Please advise.

Not really scientific, but my thoughts are the continued above average GOM SST's seem to be allowing storms to deepen faster which allows them to grow higher into the atmosphere and upper level steering usually favors more poleward motion. Just one factor IMO.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Oh yeah, 2020 was another such year, oh boy!

Fortunately the conditions that made 2020 are unlikely to happen again at least for a long time I hope. With covid shutting down factories, transportation, etc worldwide with the pollution removed more heat got down to the surface and more instability in the atmosphere. This led to more TC forming than usual.

Kinda nuts how the shutting down of these human activities actually made it worse, counterintuitive as heck!
2020 will be studied for a long time I believe.

Is there any scientific evidence that the 2020 season was more active due to less pollution? This is the first time I've heard this as an explanation for 2020's extreme output. I'm sure the temporary cut back in emissions did have an effect on the atmosphere, but the highly active 2020 season was probably more down to other things like the active WAM, la nina, above avg ssts, and so on. Outside of having one less storm, the 2005 season was even more active and there was no pandemic-induced emissions reduction that year.

[tolakram]

Fortunately the conditions that made 2020 are unlikely to happen again at least for a long time I hope. With covid shutting down factories, transportation, etc worldwide with the pollution removed more heat got down to the surface and more instability in the atmosphere. This led to more TC forming than usual.

Kinda nuts how the shutting down of these human activities actually made it worse, counterintuitive as heck!
2020 will be studied for a long time I believe.

Is there any scientific evidence that the 2020 season was more active due to less pollution? This is the first time I've heard this as an explanation for 2020's extreme output. I'm sure the temporary cut back in emissions did have an effect on the atmosphere, but the highly active 2020 season was probably more down to other things like the active WAM, la nina, above avg ssts, and so on. Outside of having one less storm, the 2005 season was even more active and there was no pandemic-induced emissions reduction that year.

Not that I know of. Even if there was a marked decrease in pollution connecting the dots would be tough to do. Personally I don't buy it, but if someone wants to post some legitimate studies on it I'd love to read.

[ChrisH-UK]

Kinda nuts how the shutting down of these human activities actually made it worse, counterintuitive as heck!
2020 will be studied for a long time I believe.

Is there any scientific evidence that the 2020 season was more active due to less pollution? This is the first time I've heard this as an explanation for 2020's extreme output. I'm sure the temporary cut back in emissions did have an effect on the atmosphere, but the highly active 2020 season was probably more down to other things like the active WAM, la nina, above avg ssts, and so on. Outside of having one less storm, the 2005 season was even more active and there was no pandemic-induced emissions reduction that year.

Not that I know of. Even if there was a marked decrease in pollution connecting the dots would be tough to do. Personally I don't buy it, but if someone wants to post some legitimate studies on it I'd love to read.

Sure

Blue skies over India

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... oronavirus

Asian Brown Cloud Study

https://www.jstor.org/stable/24106918
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2796752/

Study: Reducing human-caused air pollution in North America & Europe brings surprise result: more hurricanes

https://research.noaa.gov/study-reducin ... 20in%20the

If the link doesn't work do a search on the title and it will take you to it.

[ryxn314]

Hey! New here! Was a lurker for a while. If this upcoming season manages to produce a 150 mph+ hurricane, it will be the 11th consecutive season to do so
2015 season: Joaquin (155)
2016 season: Matthew (165)
2017 season: Irma (180), Jose (155), Maria (175)
2018 season: Florence (150), Michael (160)
2019 season: Dorian (185), Lorenzo (160)
2020 season: Laura (150), Eta (150), Iota (155)
2021 season: Ida (150), Sam (155)
2022 season: Ian (160)
2023 season: Franklin (150), Lee (165)
2024 season: Beryl (165), Milton (180)

To put things in perspective, with Florence attaining 150 mph winds, 2018 became the record 4th consecutive year to feature of 150 mph+ storm...yes all the way back in 2018. Before that, the record was 2003-2005.

To add, even if this upcoming season manages to spawn a minimal Category 4 storm of 130 mph and no higher, it would still extend a record breaking streak of years featuring a Category 4+ storm. With Franklin reaching Category 4 status, 2023 became the record 10th consecutive year to feature a Category 4 storm. If a Category 4+ forms this year, we would be at year-in-a-row #12.

Previous Record Streaks of Seasons featuring CAT4+ storms
1947-1955 (9 years)
1998-2005 (8 years)

Current Record Streak
2014-2024 (11 years)

And if you're curious, even with Iota's downgrade to a 155 mph Category 4 storm, the 2016-2019 period still holds the record for most consecutive seasons featuring a Category 5 storm at 4. The previous record was 3 during 2003-2005 (which is interestingly also the old record for most consecutive seasons featuring 150 mph+ storms).

And what's MORE is that if this upcoming season manages to pump out a Category 5 storm, the 2022-2025 period would TIE the currently record-holding 2016-2019 streak. That's TWO almost back-to-back 4-year streaks with the 2 years between getting oh so close with 2020's Iota (155) (operationally a CAT 5) and 2021's Sam (155) (which some people speculate could have been a CAT 5). Crazy how we were super close to an absolutely bonkers 10-YEAR Category 5-hurricane-featuring streak with 2015-2024. Yes, I'm throwing Joaquin in there as his winds were super close at 155 mph. In fact, had he made it to CAT 5 status, he'd be the only such storm of that intensity of non-tropical origin. He is still the strongest.

If you haven't realized already, there has been a lot of 155 mph storms the past decade. The 10-year streak of 2015-2024 that featured at least one 150 mph+ storm, ALSO featured at least one 155 mph+ storm

And so yeah.....that's my two cents.
Ryan out. PEACE! ✌️