Texas Winter 2024-2025

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#581 Postby Brent » Thu Dec 19, 2024 10:16 am

Met up here made a post about extremely cold mid January
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#582 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 19, 2024 10:47 am

The guidance is showing some decent rainfall for areas along I-20 in NTX and east of I-35 in CTX, and most of SE Texas for Christmas Eve and Christmas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#583 Postby Brent » Thu Dec 19, 2024 12:25 pm

2 posts today up here about colder in January
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#584 Postby Stratton23 » Thu Dec 19, 2024 12:29 pm

Brent yeah i expect that chatter to uptick, the agreement in the blocking pattern in ensembles is really good, seeing the WPO/ EPI both go negative on guidance is a watch out look to me, that can indicate big time cold down the road
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#585 Postby Wthrfan » Thu Dec 19, 2024 12:42 pm

Tejas89 wrote:Starting to smell like last winter. Real arctic cold snaps are so rare and unusual now they make news headlines, and we only see 1 or 2 per winter if we’re lucky.

Believe it or not we used to get arctic fronts and snow in December, even have chilly Novembers. Not always but it wasn’t that rare. Leaves would actually start turning in October in Texas.


I grew up in the Dallas area and I remember a few snows in November during the 70s.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#586 Postby Stratton23 » Thu Dec 19, 2024 1:10 pm

Some of the newest ensemble guidance is trying to extend our -EPO blocking ridge into the bearing sea of russia, now that definitely has my attention big time
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#587 Postby Brent » Thu Dec 19, 2024 1:11 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Brent yeah i expect that chatter to uptick, the agreement in the blocking pattern in ensembles is really good, seeing the WPO/ EPI both go negative on guidance is a watch out look to me, that can indicate big time cold down the road


I just hope it snows for once
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#588 Postby Stratton23 » Thu Dec 19, 2024 1:26 pm

Brent i totally get that, but i do love the pattern the ensembles are showing, strong blocking over the top, troughing over the western and central US, thats a classic look for a southern storm track and potentially wintey mischeif
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#589 Postby Brent » Thu Dec 19, 2024 1:32 pm

Wthrfan wrote:
Tejas89 wrote:Starting to smell like last winter. Real arctic cold snaps are so rare and unusual now they make news headlines, and we only see 1 or 2 per winter if we’re lucky.

Believe it or not we used to get arctic fronts and snow in December, even have chilly Novembers. Not always but it wasn’t that rare. Leaves would actually start turning in October in Texas.


I grew up in the Dallas area and I remember a few snows in November during the 70s.


First winter i was in Dallas 2014 it snowed in November

The next snow would be the last week of February almost March. The biggest snowstorm that year was on March 5th...
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#590 Postby cstrunk » Thu Dec 19, 2024 3:38 pm

Tejas89 wrote:Leaves would actually start turning in October in Texas.


I was wondering when all my leaves would fall... seems like most of them have come down within the last week with only a bit left.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#591 Postby HockeyTx82 » Thu Dec 19, 2024 3:44 pm

cstrunk wrote:
Tejas89 wrote:Leaves would actually start turning in October in Texas.


I was wondering when all my leaves would fall... seems like most of them have come down within the last week with only a bit left.


It's fascinating how nature prepares for winter. The falling of leaves in autumn is a survival strategy for trees. Here's why it happens:

**1. ** Shorter Days: As days get shorter and sunlight decreases, trees can't photosynthesize as effectively.
**2. ** Water Conservation: Shedding leaves helps trees conserve water. Without leaves, trees lose less water through a process called transpiration.
**3. ** Nutrient Reallocation: Trees reabsorb nutrients from their leaves before they fall, storing them in their roots to use in spring.
**4. ** Protection from Cold: Leaves can be damaged by freezing temperatures, so dropping them prevents this potential harm.

It’s a combination of reduced sunlight and the need to conserve resources that triggers this process. Trees are like seasoned strategists, always preparing for the next cycle!
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#592 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Dec 19, 2024 4:47 pm

Tejas89 wrote:Starting to smell like last winter. Real arctic cold snaps are so rare and unusual now they make news headlines, and we only see 1 or 2 per winter if we’re lucky.

Believe it or not we used to get arctic fronts and snow in December, even have chilly Novembers. Not always but it wasn’t that rare. Leaves would actually start turning in October in Texas.


Correct me if im wrong but last year Tx had a pretty impressive arctic blast. It was dry but it was a big one.

On another note, if the MJO entirely weakens into "the circle," heads will roll. We had a stellar Nov here, but Dec has been very warm. Currently 60F here and it will be that for the week leading up to Christmas. Totally fine with it as long as we keep rolling into a more favorable MJO.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#593 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 19, 2024 4:58 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
Tejas89 wrote:Starting to smell like last winter. Real arctic cold snaps are so rare and unusual now they make news headlines, and we only see 1 or 2 per winter if we’re lucky.

Believe it or not we used to get arctic fronts and snow in December, even have chilly Novembers. Not always but it wasn’t that rare. Leaves would actually start turning in October in Texas.


Correct me if im wrong but last year Tx had a pretty impressive arctic blast. It was dry but it was a big one.

On another note, if the MJO entirely weakens into "the circle," heads will roll. We had a stellar Nov here, but Dec has been very warm. Currently 60F here and it will be that for the week leading up to Christmas. Totally fine with it as long as we keep rolling into a more favorable MJO.


Yes last January had a really cold arctic outbreak that made it the coldest January since 2011. Relatively dry except for the lake-enhanced snow in North and Northeast Texas. It was the coldest month since Feb 2021.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#594 Postby Brent » Thu Dec 19, 2024 4:59 pm

Ntxw wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
Tejas89 wrote:Starting to smell like last winter. Real arctic cold snaps are so rare and unusual now they make news headlines, and we only see 1 or 2 per winter if we’re lucky.

Believe it or not we used to get arctic fronts and snow in December, even have chilly Novembers. Not always but it wasn’t that rare. Leaves would actually start turning in October in Texas.


Correct me if im wrong but last year Tx had a pretty impressive arctic blast. It was dry but it was a big one.

On another note, if the MJO entirely weakens into "the circle," heads will roll. We had a stellar Nov here, but Dec has been very warm. Currently 60F here and it will be that for the week leading up to Christmas. Totally fine with it as long as we keep rolling into a more favorable MJO.


Yes last January had a really cold arctic outbreak that made it the coldest January since 2011. Relatively dry except for the lake-enhanced snow in North and Northeast Texas. It was the coldest month since Feb 2021.


Yup that was our only snow here. Models had 6-8 inches and we barely managed an inch but we had a high of 6 which was one of the coldest days ever in Tulsa

Never thought at the time that would be the only snow. I'm still mad about that tbh
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#595 Postby Stratton23 » Thu Dec 19, 2024 5:10 pm

I do think january has the potential to deliver the goods, im very confident in the blocking pattern thats being advertised, all the teleconnections are going negative, and while at least not the first half of january, do i expect extreme cold, this is the kind of pattern that can produce enough cold that can lead to some fun times ahead, ensembles do show troughing over the western and central us to kickstart january, potential is definitely their
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#596 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Dec 19, 2024 5:24 pm

Stratton23 wrote:I do think january has the potential to deliver the goods, im very confident in the blocking pattern thats being advertised, all the teleconnections are going negative, and while at least not the first half of january, do i expect extreme cold, this is the kind of pattern that can produce enough cold that can lead to some fun times ahead, ensembles do show troughing over the western and central us to kickstart january, potential is definitely their


PNA does look to trend more neutral to start 2025
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#597 Postby Throckmorton » Thu Dec 19, 2024 5:25 pm

Tejas89 wrote:Starting to smell like last winter. Real arctic cold snaps are so rare and unusual now they make news headlines, and we only see 1 or 2 per winter if we’re lucky.

Believe it or not we used to get arctic fronts and snow in December, even have chilly Novembers. Not always but it wasn’t that rare. Leaves would actually start turning in October in Texas.


In a warming climate, temperature variability gets more extreme. Winters warm overall, but one or two highly anomalous arctic outbreaks can happen. Their severity should wane over the next few decades.

There is a climate index that rates winter severity. That index is not based on temperature averages. It is instead based on the intensity of arctic outbreaks.
Last edited by Throckmorton on Thu Dec 19, 2024 5:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#598 Postby Stratton23 » Thu Dec 19, 2024 5:32 pm

Iceresistance yup, and thats what we want to see
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#599 Postby Throckmorton » Thu Dec 19, 2024 5:33 pm

Some relatively recent days rate among the coldest in Texas history according to Iowa St. University.

#1–6
..9.5...02/12/1899
12.0...02/16/2021
12.5...12/23/1989
14.0...02/15/2021
14.0...12/25/1983
14.0...02/01/1951

#7–10
14.5...01/11/1962
14.5...02/11/1899
15.5...01/10/1962
16.0...02/03/2011
16.0...02/02/1985
16.0...02/08/1933

#13–15
16.5...02/13/1905
17.0...01/12/1918
17.5...01/18/1930
17.5...02/07/1895

#17–18
18.0...01/04/1947
18.5...02/04/2011
18.5...12/23/1990
18.5...12/22/1989
18.5...12/26/1983
18.5...01/02/1979
18.5...01/31/1951
18.5...01/30/1949
18.5...01/03/1911

#26–30
19.0...02/01/1985
19.0...01/13/1963
19.0...02/02/1951
19.0...01/30/1951
19.5...12/24/2022
19.5...02/17/2021
19.5...12/20/1924
19.5...01/28/1948
19.5...02/07/1899
19.5...02/08/1895
19.5...01/24/1894

#37–39
20.0...12/24/1983
20.0...01/11/1918
20.5...02/02/2011
20.5...01/13/1997
20.5...12/23/1983
20.5...01/19/1940
20.5...01/22/1930
20.5...01/17/1930
20.5...02/13/1899
20.5...01/26/1897

#47–50
21.0...12/24/1989
21.0...01/01/1928
21.0...01/12/1909
21.0...02/12/1905

#51
21.5...01/14/1997
21.5...02/06/1989
21.5...02/05/1989
21.5...01/31/1949
21.5...01/27/1897
21.5...02/15/1895

#59
22.0...01/16/2024
22.0...01/17/2018
22.0...02/03/1985
22.0...01/21/1985
22.0...01/04/1959
22.0...01/03/1947
22.0...02/09/1933
22.0...02/06/1899
22.0...12/10/1898

Distribution of 65 coldest days in Texas by winter:

6...1898–99

4...1984–85
4...1983–84
4...1950–51

3...2020–21
3...2010–11
3...1989–90
3...1929–30
3...1894–95

2...1996–97
2...1988–89
2...1961–62
2...1948–49
2...1946–47
2...1932–33
2...1917–18
2...1904–05
2...1896–97

1...2023–24
1...2022–23
1...2017–18
1...1990–91
1...1978–79
1...1962–63
1...1958–59
1...1947–48
1...1939–40
1...1927–28
1...1924–25
1...1910–11
1...1908–09
1...1893–94
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#600 Postby Throckmorton » Thu Dec 19, 2024 5:38 pm

Winters can be ranked by the average of each's five coldest days (not necessarily consecutive). So, at Austin Camp Mabry, the ranking is as follows:

#1–5
17.7...1898–99
19.6...1983–84
20.4...1950–51
21.5...1948–49
21.9...1929–30

#6–10
22.2...2020–21
24.2...1989–90
24.7...1924–25
24.7...1984–85
25.4...1962–63

#11–15
25.5...1946–47
25.6...1988–89
25.8...1939–40
25.8...1961–62
26.5...1947–48

#16–19
26.6...1978–79
26.7...1932–33
27.1...2023–24
27.7...1927–28
27.7...1972–73

#21–25
28.1...1941–42
28.5...2010–11
28.7...1996–97
28.8...1981–82
28.9...1990–91

#26–30
29.6...1977–78
29.7...1995–96
29.8...1936–37
29.8...2017–18
29.9...1910–11
29.9...2022–23
Last edited by Throckmorton on Thu Dec 19, 2024 6:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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