Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Throckmorton]

If one looks at the ten coldest five consecutive days on record for Texas and Oklahoma locations, recent years ofen pop up. For example:

Abilene
The winter of 2020/21 holds positions 2 and 5–6.

Amarillo:
The winter of 2020/21 holds positions 5, 8, & 10.

Austin Camp Mabry:
The winter of 2020/21 holds positions 7–9.

Dallas / Fort Worth:
The winter of 2020/21 holds positions 5–7.

Lawton:
The winter of 2020/21 holds positions 1–4.

Lubbock:
The winter of 2020/21 holds positions 3–4 & 6.

Midland / Odessa:
The winter of 2020/21 holds positions 1–3 & 6–7.

Oklahoma City:
The winter of 2020/21 holds positions 4–6.

San Angelo:
The winter of 2020/21 holds positions 6–7 and 9.

Tulsa:
The winter of 2020/21 holds positions 6–8.

Waco:
The winter of 2020/21 holds positions 4–5, 7, and 9.

Wichita Falls:
The winter of 2020/21 holds positions 1–3 and 7.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Stratton23, like I was saying yesterday, if and when the wpo/epo really do go negative, then fun times may fire up for us.

[Stratton23]

Golfisnteasy7575 well it certainly is looking very likely that, thats going to happen, love the overrunning setup on the GFS 18z, im saying this could be a fun January for sure

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS YOU MADMAN

[Ntxw]

It does appear the ensembles are getting into range and converging (at least for now) on high latitude blocking. In particular Alaskan. Unlike the view in late November for December, the MJO in January will be more favorable.

[Brent]

I just want something to happen... I really thought we'd at least get a flizzard this month(even last year had that!) and even that's not gonna happen probably

[Stratton23]

I love seeing the ensembles holding back the trough over the central and western US, that is a classic setup for an overruningt event

[Iceresistance]

More unstable PV to end this year per 18z GEFS.


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SPkfp.gif

[Throckmorton]

More unstable PV to end this year per 18z GEFS.

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SPkfp.gif
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SPkfp.gif

Note the Canadian Warming.

[WinterMax]

I just want something to happen... I really thought we'd at least get a flizzard this month(even last year had that!) and even that's not gonna happen probably

There is something very spiritual and peaceful about the silence that snow brings, but I find the peaceful silence with it without snow. I still hope for snow.

As you age you get colder faster and easier. It makes the bones ache lol.

So keep wishing and hoping while your young, you definitely have a better chance up there than here in central Louisiana.

[Brent]

I just want something to happen... I really thought we'd at least get a flizzard this month(even last year had that!) and even that's not gonna happen probably

There is something very spiritual and peaceful about the silence that snow brings, but I find the peaceful silence with it without snow. I still hope for snow.

As you age you get colder faster and easier. It makes the bones ache lol.

So keep wishing and hoping while your young, you definitely have a better chance up there than here in central Louisiana.

Oh I know it'll snow here again some day but for this winter to start off like this after the last two winters is just bothering me so much
I wanna believe in January but people had me believing in December too and look what happened. I thought we would have at least gotten something on the models and nothing has even been inside a week yet

[txtwister78]

I just want something to happen... I really thought we'd at least get a flizzard this month(even last year had that!) and even that's not gonna happen probably

There is something very spiritual and peaceful about the silence that snow brings, but I find the peaceful silence with it without snow. I still hope for snow.

As you age you get colder faster and easier. It makes the bones ache lol.

So keep wishing and hoping while your young, you definitely have a better chance up there than here in central Louisiana.

Oh I know it'll snow here again some day but for this winter to start off like this after the last two winters is just bothering me so much
I wanna believe in January but people had me believing in December too and look what happened. I thought we would have at least gotten something on the models and nothing has even been inside a week yet

Not going to tell you who to believe when it comes to weather obviously, but there really wasn't anything in the models that screamed winter weather this month outside of the brief cold snap into the east. It was pretty clear early on via the models and the pattern in general, that the cold temps by in large would be centered east of Oklahoma/Texas with our PNA being so positive and the warmer phases working within the MJO. Even that cold snap was transient.

Models are going to typically be behind what the pattern in the long range eventually evolves to (they catch play catch up). Just is what it is. Don't get discouraged with each model run. Ensembles/teleconnections/MJO all look promising into Jan. I think you're going to begin to see some favorable model runs as we turn the calendar into 2025. Hang in there man.

[Wthrfan]

I'm sure there are other weather novices like me that are learning from many of you about the different drivers of winter weather. I found this and it was very informative. https://frontierweather.dtn.com/WinterC ... rivers.pdf

[Stratton23]

Im liking the setup even more in some of the ensembles if you want to see cold / snow/ mixed precipitation across the deep south, especially on the GEFS, im telling yall January is looking like a fun month

[txtwister78]

For context (posted by a local met). Yes 372 hours out, but a lot of agreement with other drivers going into favorable directions if you want a real winter setup to take shape across areas that deliver cold into the south.

[txtwister78]

Im liking the setup even more in some of the ensembles if you want to see cold / snow/ mixed precipitation across the deep south, especially on the GEFS, im telling yall January is looking like a fun month

I thought you were beginning to hedge there for a minute yesterday with this "Canadian warming talk". Glad you're back on board my friend.

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 oh no i wasnt hedging, but i probably could have worded my comment better about that so it didnt sound like i was canceling winter lol, id just thought id share that that idea was being out out by the models or a well respected researcher in Cohen, but looking at the ensembles, i really dont see any evidence thats gonna have much of an impact at all, bring on the fun in january though!

[gpsnowman]

Anyone see the snow falling in South Bend today? Beautiful scene as the college football playoffs start. Hopefully it's still snowing at kickoff.

[Cpv17]

For context (posted by a local met). Yes 372 hours out, but a lot of agreement with other drivers going into favorable directions if you want a real winter setup to take shape across areas that deliver cold into the south.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GfQ1Uz2XMAAYN-D?format=jpg&name=900x900

That looks really solid for an ensemble mean.

[Cpv17]

Anyone see the snow falling in South Bend today? Beautiful scene as the college football playoffs start. Hopefully it's still snowing at kickoff.

Yep. I’ve been seeing a lot of posts about it on X. I probably won’t be able to watch it cuz I’m supposed to take my family out tonight to go out to eat and then look at Christmas lights. I’ll have to record it.