WPAC: INVEST 98W

[Hayabusa]

98W INVEST 241220 0000 3.2N 110.5E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZDEC2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.1N 123.3E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.2N
110.5E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BRUNEI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WAVE LIKE FEATURE WITH
SPORADIC CONVECTION. A 190227Z METOP-B SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATES A
DEVELOPING DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE NORTHERLY
WINDS DISLOCATED IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT INVEST 98W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AREA FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL CONTINUE TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

JMA 12Z TD

WWJP27 RJTD 201200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 201200.
WARNING VALID 211200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 04N 112E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[Hayabusa]

Up to medium

ABPW10 PGTW 202200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/202200Z-210600ZDEC2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
3.2N 110.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.3N 113.0E, APPROXIMATELY 121 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BRUNEI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
DEPICTS 98W SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MALAYSIA WITH
PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A 201747Z ASMR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CURVED
FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 98W IS IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20-
25 KNOTS, DIFFUSE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OF 28-29 C. WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE, GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W
WILL CONSOLIDATE TO WARNING THRESHOLDS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

JMA near gale warning TD since 18Z

WWJP27 RJTD 210000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 210000.
WARNING VALID 220000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 05.0N 112.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NE SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[Hayabusa]

TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 210600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.8N 112.5E TO 10.4N 115.9E WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 210530Z INDICATES THAT
A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 112.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
4.3N 113.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 112.8E, APPROXIMATELY 259 NM WEST
OF BRUNEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 202305Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A MORE SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION, WITH
FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING ORGANIZING AROUND THE CIRCULATION, AND
DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. ADDITIONALLY, A 210204Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWS 15 KNOTS WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION, WITH STRONGER 30
KNOT WINDS LOCATED AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 98W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(20-25KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98W WILL
GENERALLY TRACK POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
220600Z.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

TCFA cancelled and down to low

WTPN21 PGTW 220230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98W) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210551ZDEC24//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 210600). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.6N 114.7E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 115.5E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BRUNEI.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND
DECAYING CONVECTION DISPLACED WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE TO UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30
KTS). FURTHERMORE, THE PROXIMITY TO LAND IS INHIBITING FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF 98W. GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W
IS EXPECTED TO FILL INTO A TROUGH, WHILE A NEWER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH 99W BECOMES THE DOMINANT SYSTEM ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.//
NNNN