Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Stratton23]

GFS OP has the EPO tanking to a value of almost -7!! Thats incredible!

[Throckmorton]

LOL...

https://i.ibb.co/t46zGL5/prateptype-cat-imp-us-sc-4.png

https://i.ibb.co/WnWN6nb/prateptype-cat-imp-us-sc-5.png

https://i.ibb.co/VNTkTwb/prateptype-cat-imp-us-sc-6.png

Please sweet Jesus let this verify.

Nice, except for the freezing rain.

[Iceresistance]

Ah yes, snow in Brownsville and Mexico on the 18z GFS, would be so unfair that they got it before us!


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SPuax.png

[Stratton23]

Snow in houston on that GFS run hahaha, man what i would do to have even an inch of that in se texas lol

[cajungal]

Ah yes, snow in Brownsville and Mexico on the 18z GFS, would be so unfair that they got it before us!

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SPuax.png
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SPuax.png

Shift that further east into Louisiana

[Stratton23]

I havent seen a pattern with this much potential since probably february 2021, that GEFS run just screams an arctic/ siberian air outbreak across the US

[HockeyTx82]

I havent seen a pattern with this much potential since probably february 2021, that GEFS run just screams an arctic/ siberian air outbreak across the US

I'll wait for Wxman57 to start packing his bags, then I'm all in.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

I havent seen a pattern with this much potential since probably february 2021, that GEFS run just screams an arctic/ siberian air outbreak across the US

I've heard that phase 6/7 mjo can initiate a SSWE sometimes

[HockeyTx82]

I havent seen a pattern with this much potential since probably february 2021, that GEFS run just screams an arctic/ siberian air outbreak across the US

I've heard that phase 6/7 mjo can initiate a SSWE sometimes

You mean a Canadian Warming

[txtwister78]

I havent seen a pattern with this much potential since probably february 2021, that GEFS run just screams an arctic/ siberian air outbreak across the US

I've heard that phase 6/7 mjo can initiate a SSWE sometimes

You mean a Canadian Warming

[Brent]

James Spann made a post about much colder air

And he's usually pretty conservative about anything wintry

[Texas Snow]

LOL...

https://i.ibb.co/t46zGL5/prateptype-cat-imp-us-sc-4.png

https://i.ibb.co/WnWN6nb/prateptype-cat-imp-us-sc-5.png

https://i.ibb.co/VNTkTwb/prateptype-cat-imp-us-sc-6.png

Of course this will verify. I’m getting the double whammy of missing snow at home while visiting my in-laws in Florida that weekend. Y’all are welcome.

[wxman57]

I havent seen a pattern with this much potential since probably february 2021, that GEFS run just screams an arctic/ siberian air outbreak across the US

I'll wait for Wxman57 to start packing his bags, then I'm all in.

Compare the 18Z GFS 500mb valid 06Z Jan 4th with the 12Z EC valid the same time. GFS has an upper-low moving south into El Paso while the EC has a ridge all across Texas. Way far apart. Extreme variability in the GFS runs each 6 hrs. My azaleas are blooming. Winter appears to be over.

That said, I have been noticing cross-Polar flow in the GFS runs during the first week of January. That would signal significant cold potential.

[Throckmorton]

Some GEFS (mean) temperature forecasts for Texas and Oklahoma on Jan. 3rd:

40–25...Amarillo
50–40...Austin Camp Mabry
45–36...Dallas
55–46...Houston
41–29...Oklahoma City
40–29...Tulsa

[HockeyTx82]

I just took a stroll down memory lane in the 2020-2021 Winter Weather Thread. Those GFS extremes really did come true.

What a crazy storm and cold to have experienced.

I had forgotten just how cold and for how long it got.

[wxman57]

I just took a stroll down memory lane in the 2020-2021 Winter Weather Thread. Those GFS extremes really did come true.

What a crazy storm and cold to have experienced.

I had forgotten just how cold and for how long it got.

Were you around for the 1983 or 1989 freezes? They were both colder and longer lasting. Single digits in Houston with highs in the low 20s. Below freezing for 5 days the week of Christmas.

[TexasF6]

The GFS is still holding fast to really really deep cold building into the lower 48. Winter is Coming y'all. Does anyone have any websites that show the source regions of the cold? Aeris Wx changed and I don't see their old data maps. Thanks in advance! Oh Wxman57, I remember 83 and 89. We were -2 in NW Austin in 89!!!!

[HockeyTx82]

I just took a stroll down memory lane in the 2020-2021 Winter Weather Thread. Those GFS extremes really did come true.

What a crazy storm and cold to have experienced.

I had forgotten just how cold and for how long it got.

Were you around for the 1983 or 1989 freezes? They were both colder and longer lasting. Single digits in Houston with highs in the low 20s. Below freezing for 5 days the week of Christmas.

Technically yes, I was born in June of 82 so I don't remember the 83 freeze but remember cold in 89. That was also the year my parents divorced so there's that too.

[Brent]

Tulsa was below freezing 12 days straight in 1983. 2021 fell one day short

1989 was much shorter in duration

[cajungal]

The GFS is still holding fast to really really deep cold building into the lower 48. Winter is Coming y'all. Does anyone have any websites that show the source regions of the cold? Aeris Wx changed and I don't see their old data maps. Thanks in advance! Oh Wxman57, I remember 83 and 89. We were -2 in NW Austin in 89!!!!

Not in Tx but I live 60 miles SW of New Orleans. I was 13 in 89. We got 2 inches of snow. Down to 9 degrees and pipes burst through the ceiling