Texas Winter 2024-2025

[gboudx]

From jeff:

Period of active weather for southeast Texas over the holiday period.

A series of upper level storm systems will move across the southern US over the next 7-10 days producing periods of showers and thunderstorms locally across SE TX. Moisture is already increasing over the area ahead of the first system that will impact the region of Christmas Eve. Moisture advection will increase today leading to increasing cloud cover and eventually showers moving inland from the Gulf of Mexico, first around the Matagorda Bay area this evening and then across much of the area into Tuesday morning. Significant increase in moisture on Tuesday ahead of a very weak frontal boundary that will arrive Tuesday evening with a line of showers and thunderstorms. Given the moisture in place along with some low end instability, cannot rule out a strong or isolated severe thunderstorm Tuesday evening and SPC has place nearly all of the area in a marginal (level 1 out of 5 risk) for severe weather late Tuesday. This would include a low risk of small hail and gusty winds. Activity will end early Christmas Day morning with slow clearing into the midday hours. There will not be much of any air mass change with this system and southeast winds return Wednesday afternoon under partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the 60’s/70’s.

Next system moves in quickly on Thursday and with moisture already in place scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday into Thursday night. Could see some locally heavy rainfall with this system with potentially a longer period of rainfall over the area. A brief break on Friday, before the third and final weather system moves across Saturday with additional chances for rainfall and finally a decent frontal passage that will scour out the low level moisture and end rain chances for a few days. Active storm track looks to return for the for week of January. For those that look at long range guidance…yes the GFS has been showing a significant arctic air intrusion and winter storm in Texas off and on over the last few days…but there has been no support from other guidance and little consistency in the GFS runs…hence any talk on the forecast 2 weeks from now is simply speculation.

[orangeblood]

FINALLY something to talk about around here, glad to be back on the forum!

This pattern is starting to look primed for some sustainable January Cold, looking forward to the discussions coming up....

[JayDT]

FINALLY something to talk about around here, glad to be back on the forum!

This pattern is starting to look primed for some sustainable January Cold, looking forward to the discussions coming up....
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1734933600/1736208000-bh1bwDclRVo.png

Good to see you back! Now i’m more excited about this upcoming pattern

[Wthrfan]

I have found Larry Cosgrove to be quite informative and accurate most of the time. Here is his latest. https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramer ... XY2_PCAOWM

[OtakuForecaster]

I have found Larry Cosgrove to be quite informative and accurate most of the time. Here is his latest. https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramer ... XY2_PCAOWM

Same. I've learned a lot about long-range forecasting, and basically all of it I owe to reading his discussions over the years.

Pretty stand up guy, too! At least from what I've seen of him on my social media interactions.

[txtwister78]

Interesting ensemble run of the GEFS. Wouldn't call it a trend yet but I can see a little SE ridge trying to develop keeping most of the cold locked into the center of the country points west in the long range as a trough builds in. East coast folks along the I-95 in particular won't like that run.

[Stratton23]

A little bit of se ridging would he nice, get a trough digging out west, and you got a setup for an overrunning event, although se ridge is notorious for setting up potential ice storms down here

[txtwister78]

A little bit of se ridging would he nice, get a trough digging out west, and you got a setup for an overrunning event, although se ridge is notorious for setting up potential ice storms down here

You couldn't have a more different presentation in model world right now with the Euro vs the GFS. Huge implications for those in the east. A small SE ridge is actually ideal here depending on how cold the source region is but yeah more times than not you can get some ice events out of these setups but active storm tracks coming out of the SW and you can hit the jack pot too.

[Stratton23]

Its not every day that you see ensembles consistently showing a high lattitude blocking alaskan ridge extending all the way up into the arctic circle with cross polar flow developing as well as the TPV setting up near hudson bay… couple that with a strong -NAO Greenland block

[Brent]

Our met isn't just saying cold air hes saying frigid air possible

He is concerned about it being dry though

[orangeblood]

When you get the Euro OP aligning with the GEFS ensemble, look out below!!! Confidence increasing that the coldest anomalies in the northern hemisphere coming to our neighborhood in the 10-14 day period, source region loading up.

[Ntxw]

That is about as solid a signal you can ask for from ensembles of a big cold air dump. Note the trends westerward of the longwave trough, though I think the entire country will be cold. Operational OPs will have some back and forth as it is out of reach for them yet.

Peak of cold should be Jan 5-15.

[Cpv17]

Our met isn't just saying cold air hes saying frigid air possible

He is concerned about it being dry though

I’m not too worried about trying to predict precipitation this far out. I pretty much don’t even pay attention to precipitation beyond 5 days in the models.

[Brent]

Our met isn't just saying cold air hes saying frigid air possible

He is concerned about it being dry though

I’m not too worried about trying to predict precipitation this far out. I pretty much don’t even pay attention to precipitation beyond 5 days in the models.

Good point and he had the true really cold air even further out(around January 8th)

[Cpv17]

Our met isn't just saying cold air hes saying frigid air possible

He is concerned about it being dry though

I’m not too worried about trying to predict precipitation this far out. I pretty much don’t even pay attention to precipitation beyond 5 days in the models.

Good point and he had the true really cold air even further out(around January 8th)

The cold will be a step down process similar to some cold outbreaks of the past. Won’t just be one huge front, but rather a series of them. This is how you can get sustained cold over a longer period of time.

[txtwister78]

When you get the Euro OP aligning with the GEFS ensemble, look out below!!! Confidence increasing that the coldest anomalies in the northern hemisphere coming to our neighborhood in the 10-14 day period, source region loading up.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/nhemi/t850_anom_stream/1734955200/1736251200-gAi2hsHgSP8.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/t850_anom_stream/1734955200/1736251200-A2rJzKjbylQ.png

12z EPS in a different ballpark compared to its OP, but to your point a lot on the table in terms of potential. Going to be some variability over the next few days before we begin to see ensembles come together. When we can get those two aligned (GEFS/EPS) then we're talking.

[Cpv17]

When you get the Euro OP aligning with the GEFS ensemble, look out below!!! Confidence increasing that the coldest anomalies in the northern hemisphere coming to our neighborhood in the 10-14 day period, source region loading up.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/nhemi/t850_anom_stream/1734955200/1736251200-gAi2hsHgSP8.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/t850_anom_stream/1734955200/1736251200-A2rJzKjbylQ.png

12z EPS in a different ballpark compared to its OP, but to your point a lot on the table in terms of potential. Going to be some variability over the next few days before we begin to see ensembles come together. When we can get those two aligned (GEFS/EPS) then we're talking.

Probably why the CPC hasn’t bought in yet.

[orangeblood]

When you get the Euro OP aligning with the GEFS ensemble, look out below!!! Confidence increasing that the coldest anomalies in the northern hemisphere coming to our neighborhood in the 10-14 day period, source region loading up.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/nhemi/t850_anom_stream/1734955200/1736251200-gAi2hsHgSP8.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/t850_anom_stream/1734955200/1736251200-A2rJzKjbylQ.png

12z EPS in a different ballpark compared to its OP, but to your point a lot on the table in terms of potential. Going to be some variability over the next few days before we begin to see ensembles come together. When we can get those two aligned (GEFS/EPS) then we're talking.

Not too different, 5h is there and cold building

[txtwister78]

When you get the Euro OP aligning with the GEFS ensemble, look out below!!! Confidence increasing that the coldest anomalies in the northern hemisphere coming to our neighborhood in the 10-14 day period, source region loading up.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/nhemi/t850_anom_stream/1734955200/1736251200-gAi2hsHgSP8.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/t850_anom_stream/1734955200/1736251200-A2rJzKjbylQ.png

12z EPS in a different ballpark compared to its OP, but to your point a lot on the table in terms of potential. Going to be some variability over the next few days before we begin to see ensembles come together. When we can get those two aligned (GEFS/EPS) then we're talking.

Not too different, 5h is there and cold building
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/t850_anom_stream/1734955200/1736251200-Mxk1XsxoqAo.png

Well yeah building for sure vs a full-on barney invasion directly into TX via the OP still a bit different. Also, no ridge across southern Texas in the OP. EPS has most of the cold directed SE as well. GEFS puts a bit of ridge in the SE. Still a lot to watch despite the pattern being favorable.

[Cpv17]

Interestingly, the CPC actually has a slight chance for above average precip in their 8-14 day outlook for southern TX. Doubt it means much of anything though.