Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Stratton23]

Its probably for that storm system that the GFS has been showing just after new years

[Ntxw]

Its probably for that storm system that the GFS has been showing just after new years

Equatorward Pacific jet will allow the southern branch (STJ) to come alive. Jet streak across the southern plains and southern US is strong at 250mb on the ensembles.

[Ntxw]

12z EPS in a different ballpark compared to its OP, but to your point a lot on the table in terms of potential. Going to be some variability over the next few days before we begin to see ensembles come together. When we can get those two aligned (GEFS/EPS) then we're talking.

Not too different, 5h is there and cold building
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/t850_anom_stream/1734955200/1736251200-Mxk1XsxoqAo.png

Well yeah building for sure vs a full-on barney invasion directly into TX via the OP still a bit different. Also, no ridge across southern Texas in the OP. EPS has most of the cold directed SE as well. GEFS puts a bit of ridge in the SE. Still a lot to watch despite the pattern being favorable.

Think there might be several waves of cold to watch. The first would be initial cool down around New Years through the 5th. This period of storminess will feature cold anomalies centered more in the plains and southern plains. Not brutal cold per say but your more seasonal cold. Then we'll have to see where the mean trough sets up which there are two camps, GEFS shifting westward while the EPS and GEPS bunch still going +PNA style.

[txtwister78]

Not too different, 5h is there and cold building
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/t850_anom_stream/1734955200/1736251200-Mxk1XsxoqAo.png

Well yeah building for sure vs a full-on barney invasion directly into TX via the OP still a bit different. Also, no ridge across southern Texas in the OP. EPS has most of the cold directed SE as well. GEFS puts a bit of ridge in the SE. Still a lot to watch despite the pattern being favorable.

Think there might be several waves of cold to watch. The first would be initial cool down around New Years through the 5th. This period of storminess will feature cold anomalies centered more in the plains and southern plains. Not brutal cold per say but your more seasonal cold. Then we'll have to see where the mean trough sets up which there are two camps, GEFS shifting westward while the EPS and GEPS bunch still going +PNA style.

'Yup completely agree here. Still some things to sort out.

[txtwister78]

Still keep an eye out for some severe weather late tomorrow evening/overnight into early Christmas morning perhaps for portions of SC TX into Houston metro. Not looking good for rain for most of the areas that still need it unfortunately.

[Stratton23]

And the GFS is much colder again, will be interesting to see just how cold we could possibly get with this pattern

[Stratton23]

That 18z GFS run is whay you want to see if you want winter weather all the way down into south texas, nice coastal low developing in response to the arctic air coming down

[Sambucol2024]

That 18z GFS run is whay you want to see if you want winter weather all the way down into south texas, nice coastal low developing in response to the arctic air coming down

When does the GFS show it arriving in Texas?

[Ntxw]

I took a composite of DFW's coldest January's, minus the pre-1948 years since it doesn't go back that far in the re-analysis source I'm using, but you can see why we are a tad excited about the upcoming period.



Did one for Texas as well and you get very similar years.

[bubba hotep]

Too bad Canada is torching or we would be talking about some serious cold with this look.

[Ntxw]

Too bad Canada is torching or we would be talking about some serious cold with this look.

https://i.ibb.co/5rzr0rj/eps-z500a-Norm-namer-531223.png

I'm more interested in the equatorward Pacific jet. Jet extensions have been so badly timed for us, having one going the other way will wake up the subtropical jet.

[bubba hotep]

Too bad Canada is torching or we would be talking about some serious cold with this look.

https://i.ibb.co/5rzr0rj/eps-z500a-Norm-namer-531223.png

I'm more interested in the equatorward Pacific jet. Jet extensions have been so badly timed for us, having one going the other way will wake up the subtropical jet.

It's not totally crazy to think something could happen for Texas in the Jan 5-8 timeframe. The airmass will be marginal, but it could pull it off.

[Stratton23]

the 2nd week is when the really bitter cold air could affect most of the US, first week of january is more of a transition period

[HockeyTx82]

the 2nd week is when the really bitter cold air could affect most of the US, first week of january is more of a transition period

And so it starts. Pushing everything another week. At this rate we will all be in shorts come January.

[bubba hotep]

the 2nd week is when the really bitter cold air could affect most of the US, first week of january is more of a transition period

Looks like the whole month of January could be below normal for Texas. You are right; the wild card looks to be as we head into mid-January, and some real cold is able to build to our north.

[bubba hotep]

the 2nd week is when the really bitter cold air could affect most of the US, first week of january is more of a transition period

And so it starts. Pushing everything another week. At this rate we will all be in shorts come January.

I don't think so. It will take time to recover from the Canada wide torch, and that limits the cold during the first part of January.

[starsfan65]

the 2nd week is when the really bitter cold air could affect most of the US, first week of january is more of a transition period

And so it starts. Pushing everything another week. At this rate we will all be in shorts come January.

I don't think so. It will take time to recover from the Canada wide torch, and that limits the cold during the first part of January.

It will still be Cold for New Year's.

[Brent]

Theres still a pretty solid signal on the ensembles for some snow here around the 2nd-4th. Probably the biggest signal I've seen all season

[txtwister78]

I took a composite of DFW's coldest January's, minus the pre-1948 years since it doesn't go back that far in the re-analysis source I'm using, but you can see why we are a tad excited about the upcoming period.

https://i.imgur.com/VhRFuIS.png

Did one for Texas as well and you get very similar years.

https://i.imgur.com/uGkQzSX.png

Love that Jan 85 is in there. Some big ticket snow events occurred in San Antonio then. One that dropped 14 inches which obviously still stands as the record setting event for the city.

[gpsnowman]

I took a composite of DFW's coldest January's, minus the pre-1948 years since it doesn't go back that far in the re-analysis source I'm using, but you can see why we are a tad excited about the upcoming period.

https://i.imgur.com/VhRFuIS.png

Did one for Texas as well and you get very similar years.

https://i.imgur.com/uGkQzSX.png

Love that Jan 85 is in there. Some big ticket snow events occurred in San Antonio then. One that dropped 14 inches which obviously still stands as the record setting event for the city.

I was a 2nd grader living in San Antonio when a sneaky snowstorm dropped a couple inches while in class in January 1982. By afternoon sun was out and the snow melted. Moved back to Dallas in 1984 and missed the San Antonio snow in 1985. January and February were pretty good for DFW though. The memories are fresh. Thanks to Harold Taft. Impacting weather period for me.