Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Brent]

Well at least it's raining again. It had gotten very dry this month

[CaptinCrunch]

Well at least it's raining again. It had gotten very dry this month

Agree, it's been raining here since about 7:30am with some nice claps of thunder.

From now through the 30th there won't be much to talk about, but the system for next week will bring us back down to normal with highs back in the low to mid 50s and lows in the lower 30s.

[Wthrfan]

https://youtu.be/umDDzdA6V2g?feature=shared
I love that video. Posted it a few times over the years. Weather starts at 10 minutes. Bring it.

Thanks for sharing! I grew up in the DFW area and this took me right back to my childhood! Loved it! I was a Harold Taft fan, but Troy was pretty good too!

[Wthrfan]

https://youtu.be/umDDzdA6V2g?feature=shared
I love that video. Posted it a few times over the years. Weather starts at 10 minutes. Bring it.

Troy Dungan was greatness. No Harold Taft, but still a great one. It's crazy to see how matter-of-fact everyone was about this storm. No sensationalism, no panic in the streets, it wasn't the lead story. 36 hours out from the first flakes flying and it was all "hey, it's gonna get cold and there's going to be precip. Consider yourselves warned." Today it would've been non-stop coverage of the "Winter Wallop" or the "Arctic Invasion" or whatever eye-grabbing headline they wanted to make out of it. Total overstimulation. Jan-Feb 1985 was a great run. Snow on New Year's night, cold blast mid-month, big snow to bring in February. And the final freeze for the season was Feb 15th!

So true about the sensationalism...I don't know how many times the mets in OKC have use the phrase "Snowmageddon" or something similar to describe and overhype an upcoming storm that usually amounts to nothing!

[gpsnowman]

https://youtu.be/umDDzdA6V2g?feature=shared
I love that video. Posted it a few times over the years. Weather starts at 10 minutes. Bring it.

Thanks for sharing! I grew up in the DFW area and this took me right back to my childhood! Loved it! I was a Harold Taft fan, but Troy was pretty good too!

Yes. Harold was number one in those days but I always liked Troy. I had the privilege of meeting Troy and having a weather conversation with him many years ago at a WFAA/WBAP symposium with my daughter. We also met and talked to WFAAs Greg Fields. Both super nice people who had no problems answering questions we had for them. Not to brag but another favorite of mine, David Finfrock of NBC5, gave us a tour of the news studios in Fort Worth and allowed my then 7 year old daughter ask weather questions which he happily answered. This was in 2016. Then he showed us how he makes a forecast and let us stand in front of the green screen and let us pretend to do a weather report. Cool stuff. I was just as excited as my little girl.

[snownado]

Now this is a nice Christmas present.

T'Storms with Flash Flooding...

[Brent]

Remembers when Christmas was gonna be 70s and 80s about 300 hours ago

We're gonna be lucky to be much above 50

[cstrunk]

Two areas of concern for potential severe weather (hail/wind mostly) seem to be unfolding for today. The first is this afternoon into the evening from Waco/Terrell towards Henderson/Lufkin. Later this afternoon through the evening another threat may develop in the Austin/San Antonio area towards the east-southeast.

SPC just upgraded these areas to a slight risk.

[snownado]

Two areas of concern for potential severe weather (hail/wind mostly) seem to be unfolding for today. The first is this afternoon into the evening from Waco/Terrell towards Henderson/Lufkin. Later this afternoon through the evening another threat may develop in the Austin/San Antonio area towards the east-southeast.

SPC just upgraded these areas to a slight risk.

It's primarily a hail threat, FWIW, because of the decent mid-level lapse rates...

[Gotwood]

Remembers when Christmas was gonna be 70s and 80s about 300 hours ago

We're gonna be lucky to be much above 50

Underperforming temps in the winter is always a good thing lol.

[Harp.1]

The 12z GFS gives Brent his snow. The rest of us will have to live vicariously….

[Cpv17]

The 12z GFS gives Brent his snow. The rest of us will have to live vicariously….

I just hope this +PNA goes away.

[Stratton23]

Dont put too much stock into the long range GFS operational runs, when we are possibly talking about a large dump of very cold weather potentially affecting us down here in the 2nd week of january, of course the operational model is going to really struggle to nail down blocking features and troughs, the op model is too progressive with these features and is a well known bias in the GFS, ensembles are way better looking, so for now dont put much stock into any of the operational runs until they get within 7-8 days of this

[DallasAg]

https://youtu.be/umDDzdA6V2g?feature=shared
I love that video. Posted it a few times over the years. Weather starts at 10 minutes. Bring it.

Thanks for sharing! I grew up in the DFW area and this took me right back to my childhood! Loved it! I was a Harold Taft fan, but Troy was pretty good too!

Yes. Harold was number one in those days but I always liked Troy. I had the privilege of meeting Troy and having a weather conversation with him many years ago at a WFAA/WBAP symposium with my daughter. We also met and talked to WFAAs Greg Fields. Both super nice pepole who had no problems answering questions we had for them. Not to brag but another favorite of mine, David Finfrock of NBC5, gave us a tour of the news studios in Fort Worth and allowed my then 7 year old daughter ask weather questions which he happily answered. This was in 2016. Then he showed us how he made a forecast and let us stand in front of the green screen and let us pretend to do a weather report. Cool stuff. I was just as excited as my little girl.

That's awesome! In 7th grade I wrote a letter to Harold Taft to get his account of the Dallas tornado of 1957 and information on how tornadoes form for my science fair project. I got some great info back, hopefully it's still in storage in my parents' attic somewhere!

Another cool time capsule moment from that video. The average high/low at DFW for Jan 29th was 55/34 in 1985. Fast forward 40 years and it's 58/37 for Jan 29, 2025.

[Brent]

The 12z GFS gives Brent his snow. The rest of us will have to live vicariously….

Lol tbh I'll believe it when I see it. We still havent had more than an inch of snow in a storm since 2022 and not a flake this winter yet

I mean yeah I do believe this winter will be different but until it's inside 3 or 4 days it's hard to get excited

[Stratton23]

Brent this pattern ahead does look good at least for a chance of you seeing measureable snow, but i totally get being extremely cautious here, but I do think this pattern ahead at least offers the opportunity for the best chance of wintry weather/ snow that you have seen in several years, EPS still has a good signal for that

[Brent]

Brent this pattern ahead does look good at least for a chance of you seeing measureable snow, but i totally get being extremely cautious here, but I do think this pattern ahead at least offers the opportunity for the best chance of wintry weather/ snow that you have seen in several years, EPS still has a good signal for that

Yes that's true this is the first time I've felt like we've had hope this winter but we still got a long way to go

I still haven't forgotten last winter either. What a nightmare

[Harp.1]

Dont put too much stock into the long range GFS operational runs, when we are possibly talking about a large dump of very cold weather potentially affecting us down here in the 2nd week of january, of course the operational model is going to really struggle to nail down blocking features and troughs, the op model is too progressive with these features and is a well known bias in the GFS, ensembles are way better looking, so for now dont put much stock into any of the operational runs until they get within 7-8 days of this

Are the ensembles still lining up for mid January?

[Stratton23]

Yes, the 2nd week of january for the much colder stuff, that part hasn't changed, ensembles will still change from run to run on position of the US longwave trough and blocking, but nothing remotely volatile like the operational runs

[Cpv17]

Yes, the 2nd week of january for the much colder stuff, that part hasn't changed, ensembles will still change from run to run on position of the US longwave trough and blocking, but nothing remotely volatile like the operational runs

Man I hope so cuz I’ve already told a lot of people about a big pattern change coming in January and I definitely don’t wanna be wrong about it lol