Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 same, ive been telling all my friends and family that you’ll need the winter coats alot in january, i really dont wanna eat crow chowder, good news is ensembles are still consistent on the 2nd of january being the target for the coldest weather, we will just have to see how the evolution and position of where the trough decides to setup

[txtwister78]

Yes, the 2nd week of january for the much colder stuff, that part hasn't changed, ensembles will still change from run to run on position of the US longwave trough and blocking, but nothing remotely volatile like the operational runs

Man I hope so cuz I’ve already told a lot of people about a big pattern change coming in January and I definitely don’t wanna be wrong about it lol

Pattern change definitely going to occur. however as is the case down south, devil is always in the details in terms of how cold and what if any precip to go with it. Watching our friend the PNA to see if it cooperates. The other teleconnections are all aligned for a colder pattern as we move into the New Year. The waiting is the "fun" part.

[Harp.1]

Yes, the 2nd week of january for the much colder stuff, that part hasn't changed, ensembles will still change from run to run on position of the US longwave trough and blocking, but nothing remotely volatile like the operational runs

Man I hope so cuz I’ve already told a lot of people about a big pattern change coming in January and I definitely don’t wanna be wrong about it lol

Pattern change definitely going to occur. however as is the case down south, devil is always in the details in terms of how cold and what if any precip to go with it. Watching our friend the PNA to see if it cooperates. The other teleconnections are all aligned for a colder pattern as we move into the New Year. The waiting is the "fun" part.

Waiting and watching is always fun. Then, the closer we get, reality sets in!

[Gotwood]

The 12z GFS gives Brent his snow. The rest of us will have to live vicariously….

I just hope this +PNA goes away.

It’s looking pretty neutral.

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 thats not necessarily always the case, especially since we just had a SSWE occur about a week ago, in this situation the closer we get to that timeframe, models will likely be trending colder and playing catch up, since this cold air is getting dislodged straight from the arctic /stratosphere, it takes several weeks to work its way down into the US, its a slow process, but this also is something that global models, even ensembles will struggle with how it evolves and how certain players enter the picture , TPV, position of blocking and of course the US long wave trough, of course their is always the chance we get left with disappointment , but id says thats not a likely chance, things look good, the hardest part now is waiting

[Harp.1]

Harp.1 thats not necessarily always the case, especially since we just had a SSWE occur about a week ago, in this situation the closer we get to that timeframe, models will likely be trending colder and playing catch up, since this cold air is getting dislodged straight from the arctic /stratosphere, it takes several weeks to work its way down into the US, its a slow process, but this also is something that global models, even ensembles will struggle with how it evolves and how certain players enter the picture , TPV, position of blocking and of course the US long wave trough, of course their is always the chance we get left with disappointment , but id says thats not a likely chance, things look good, the hardest part now is waiting

Yeah, I hear ya. I’m to your east in Louisiana. I pay close attention to what you folks get in central and south Texas. Many times that moves in our direction. I appreciate all the input on this forum and the responses to my questions. Thank you guys.

[Cpv17]

The 12z GFS gives Brent his snow. The rest of us will have to live vicariously….

I just hope this +PNA goes away.

It’s looking pretty neutral.

I forgot where I saw it, but yesterday someone had a pic of the AIFS model and it had to heart of the cold pouring into Texas. It looked really good.

[Gotwood]

I just hope this +PNA goes away.

It’s looking pretty neutral.

I forgot where I saw it, but yesterday someone had a pic of the AIFS model and it had to heart of the cold pouring into Texas. It looked really good.

It’s looking like that will be the case we just went through a long period of + so it’s trending back -.

[Brent]

The EPS snow mean still looks better east of here....hopefully that's wrong I mean it's ok here but it's better to the east

[bubba hotep]

Awesome over performer today. It has been storming for hours.

[Throckmorton]

I just hope this +PNA goes away.

It’s looking pretty neutral.

I forgot where I saw it, but yesterday someone had a pic of the AIFS model and it had to heart of the cold pouring into Texas. It looked really good.

Not so much anymore. Definitely colder but not record–breaking in Texas. Maybe a light freeze in Austin on the 2nd and 8th. The coldest for Dallas will be mid– to upper 20s. The AIFS extends until 6 am CST on Jan. 8th.

[Cpv17]

Just saw someone post last nights 0z run of the EPS and it very much has a +PNA look to it. Nothing but glancing blows for us in Texas. Hope that changes.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 i wouldnt worry about it, the run before the 12z EPS had the trough further west over the central US, and it shifted east the next run, even the ensembles keep on shifting the trough around to a big degree on every run so i really dont see a clear trend yet, im not terribly concerned about a + PNA occuring though

[Brent]

Just saw someone post last nights 0z run of the EPS and it very much has a +PNA look to it. Nothing but glancing blows for us in Texas. Hope that changes.

Yeah the snow mean on the EPS looks like a +PNA there's actually some very big snowstorms east of here showing up whereas we just have light snow members

We need that to change for sure the good news is it's over a week out

[gpsnowman]

Just saw someone post last nights 0z run of the EPS and it very much has a +PNA look to it. Nothing but glancing blows for us in Texas. Hope that changes.

Yeah the snow mean on the EPS looks like a +PNA there's actually some very big snowstorms east of here showing up whereas we just have light snow members

We need that to change for sure the good news is it's over a week out

That PNA better not kill our January.

[Cpv17]

Just saw someone post last nights 0z run of the EPS and it very much has a +PNA look to it. Nothing but glancing blows for us in Texas. Hope that changes.

Yeah the snow mean on the EPS looks like a +PNA there's actually some very big snowstorms east of here showing up whereas we just have light snow members

We need that to change for sure the good news is it's over a week out

That PNA better not kill our January.

No kidding. I’m nervous about it, not gonna lie.

[Brent]

Yeah the snow mean on the EPS looks like a +PNA there's actually some very big snowstorms east of here showing up whereas we just have light snow members

We need that to change for sure the good news is it's over a week out

That PNA better not kill our January.

No kidding. I’m nervous about it, not gonna lie.

I mean I guess in January 1985 it started east of here(the cold inauguration in DC was before Texas had anything) and then shifted but yeah it's definitely a concern

[Iceresistance]

Yeah the snow mean on the EPS looks like a +PNA there's actually some very big snowstorms east of here showing up whereas we just have light snow members

We need that to change for sure the good news is it's over a week out

That PNA better not kill our January.

No kidding. I’m nervous about it, not gonna lie.

I've checked the CPC, and for the beginning of January, it looks like to be -NAO, -AO, and Neutral PNA

[Brent]

That PNA better not kill our January.

No kidding. I’m nervous about it, not gonna lie.

I've checked the CPC, and for the beginning of January, it looks like to be -NAO, -AO, and Neutral PNA

I mean I hope it's right and most of it is still in fantasy land but it's something to watch. The snow mean is better east of us though

[Stratton23]

Looking on the 18z GEFS, I dont see evidence of a + PNA, if anything its neutral