Texas Winter 2024-2025

[WinterMax]

https://youtu.be/umDDzdA6V2g?feature=shared
I love that video. Posted it a few times over the years. Weather starts at 10 minutes. Bring it.

I’m getting a sore throat just thinking about it!

[Harp.1]

Gfs gives you Texans some hope!

[Brent]

Ensembles look better here

Please all I want for January is a good trend for once

[wxman22]

Stay weather aware tomorrow, especially in east Texas, an upgrade to an enhance risk may be warranted for tornadoes.

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday across central/east
Texas into western Louisiana and possibly southeast Oklahoma and the
ArkLaTex region.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low, initially over the Texas Panhandle at the beginning
of the period Thursday will slowly move east and become negatively
tilted and more compact as it translates across the southern Plains
and ends the period in the mid-Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, a
surface low will strengthen across central Texas and move into
Arkansas Thursday evening. As this cyclone intensifies,
strengthening surface winds will draw mid 60s dewpoints northward
across much of East Texas and Louisiana with low 60s dewpoints
possibly into southern Arkansas.

...Central/East Texas to the Arklatex and much of Louisiana...
Some showers and a few thunderstorms are possible within the warm
air advection regime across East Texas and southern Louisiana
Thursday morning. Relatively weak lapse rates and weak forcing
should keep the severe weather threat somewhat subdued during the
morning to early afternoon, but near-surface based parcels and
clockwise curving hodographs could support some mini-supercells and
an isolated tornado threat.

Expect a gradual increase in convective coverage through the day as
the low-level jet intensifies ahead of the approaching wave and
greater surface based instability develops across southeast Texas.
Moderate instability and strong shear will support the potential for
supercells with an initial threat for large hail and a greater
tornado threat during the late afternoon and evening as the
low-level jet intensifies. The HRRR suggests much greater
instability and low-level shear across the warm sector Thursday
afternoon than the rest of the hi-res guidance. If this solution
were to materialize, greater tornado probabilities would likely be
warranted, but this appears to be more of an outlier solution at
this time.

Nonetheless, a favorable supercell environment will exist across
east Texas with an increasing tornado threat later in the afternoon
and evening. Any mature supercells which can develop during the
afternoon amid greater instability and remain discrete into the
evening as the low-level jet intensifies could pose a threat for a
strong (EF2+ tornado).

In addition, expect a squall line to intensify during the evening.
Instability will be relatively weak farther north, but could remain
sufficient to convectively transport the 50 to 70 knot low-level jet
to the surface across parts of southeast Oklahoma, southern
Arkansas, and northern Louisiana Thursday evening and into the
overnight hours.

[Stratton23]

Starting to see a + PNA showing up on all the ensembles, thankfully its still in the long range, but thats not what you want to see

[Brent]

Starting to see a + PNA showing up on all the ensembles, thankfully its still in the long range, but thats not what you want to see

Yeah if that ruins our winter after the last two years I'm gonna be livid

[Stratton23]

Brent yeah the EPS sends almost all the cold air to our east, GEFS/ GEPS starting to trend that way as well, if that happens, im officially throwing the towel on this winter

[Gotwood]

Brent yeah the EPS sends almost all the cold air to our east, GEFS/ GEPS starting to trend that way as well, if that happens, im officially throwing the towel on this winter

It will be neutral or negative first half of Jan don’t lose hope.

[Ntxw]

Merry Christmas!

Hoping we are seeing something like 2020-2021 where the first half the winter was more +PNA and then the Nina factor took over the second half and pulled the trough back. Just hoping we aren't seeing one of those multi-year trough/ridge placement cycles where it starts east and ends up west the next year and so on.

Believe it or not the big cities in the east coast is running -2F to -3F below normal for December.

[Cpv17]

Starting to see a + PNA showing up on all the ensembles, thankfully its still in the long range, but thats not what you want to see

Yeah if that ruins our winter after the last two years I'm gonna be livid

Same here.

[Stratton23]

Ensembles no longer support a - PNA, looking at the teleconnections chart, the GEFS/ GEPS/ EPS all go back to a + Positive PNA in January , what a utter joke

[Ntxw]

Ensembles no longer support a - PNA, looking at the teleconnections chart, the GEFS/ GEPS/ EPS all go back to a + Positive PNA in January , what a utter joke

There is still plenty of time to write it off. +PNA can work too as long as it's not too extreme and if there is a ULL/cutoff trough to the southwest sometimes can bring the fun. We just haven't seen many of those lately.

Meanwhile it is true the +PNA have verified stronger than forecast since the beginning of this month.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw hopefully it doesnt go that positive, i just hate it when everything looks good initially, and then it just trends the opposite way, something like the operational GFS 12z run would be good for the state

[Harp.1]

I wouldn’t cancel winter just yet. I’m sure there will be more fluctuations. Is the MJO still in 6?

[Ntxw]

I wouldn’t cancel winter just yet. I’m sure there will be more fluctuations. Is the MJO still in 6?

Yeah it's been crawling like molasses through 6.

[Brent]

I wouldn’t cancel winter just yet. I’m sure there will be more fluctuations. Is the MJO still in 6?

Oh I don't disagree but on the other hand if this pattern fails I'm so tired of fantasy land looking good and then we get into real range and it falls apart. Same thing happened around Thanksgiving for this month. It gets old

We shouldn't be going this many years without a good trend just once

[Ntxw]

I wouldn’t cancel winter just yet. I’m sure there will be more fluctuations. Is the MJO still in 6?

Oh I don't disagree but on the other hand if this pattern fails I'm so tired of fantasy land looking good and then we get into real range and it falls apart. Same thing happened around Thanksgiving for this month. It gets old

We shouldn't be going this many years without a good trend just once

Think most of us highlighted after the first week is when the troughing *was* supposed to retrograde, and we got a little excited with the period just after the New Year. If the 2nd week (post 10th) fails with another +PNA then I'd get a little more concerned that the background state favors the east.

[gpsnowman]

At least we get closer to normal after our string of 70s this weekend and Monday. Yuck.

[Stratton23]

Noaa favors a + PNA in their 8-14 day outlook

[HockeyTx82]

I wouldn’t cancel winter just yet. I’m sure there will be more fluctuations. Is the MJO still in 6?

Oh I don't disagree but on the other hand if this pattern fails I'm so tired of fantasy land looking good and then we get into real range and it falls apart. Same thing happened around Thanksgiving for this month. It gets old

We shouldn't be going this many years without a good trend just once

Makes me wonder before we all had access to models to disect long range and all the factors how many times have models shown full blown cold only to slide it east or it never happen.

We all know why TV and Professional Mets don't forecast beyond a few days. Can you imagine the masses constantly seeing mind blowing cold or end of times severe weather supercell potential and it never verify.