Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Brent]

I still don't see anything colder than we've been on the GEFS(like our coldest day has been like 20/39 I think) but like I said too it's still so far out. I guess we'll see if it trends colder or not. Tbh I'm more curious about precip than extreme cold

But if we're gonna get really cold we'll have sub freezing highs easily. January this year and December 2022 was more like teens for highs

[Stratton23]

Brent ive noticed typically when an operational run of any model ( in this case the GFS) when it shows an extreme cold solution, it typically takes a few model cycles for the ensembles to catch on if at all ( and assuming the operational run doesnt drop it) so we will see if the GEFS starts coming in colder the next few runs

[Cpv17]

Brent ive noticed typically when an operational run of any model ( in this case the GFS) when it shows an extreme cold solution, it typically takes a few model cycles for the ensembles to catch on if at all ( and assuming the operational run doesnt drop it) so we will see if the GEFS starts coming in colder the next few runs

Ensembles usually don’t go full on Barney colors till it gets within close range. Like inside 5 days.

[Sambucol]

Stratton, is the GFS showing a several day period of highs in the 20s? And does it resemble Feb 2021?

[Brent]

Stratton, is the GFS showing a several day period of highs in the 20s? And does it resemble Feb 2021?

It kind of did last run(okay it was only one or two really cold days) but it's been all over the place. No consistency yet but it also is pretty much 2 weeks out still

[Ntxw]

0z GFS is a decent run. Need to string together good runs, just to show nothing is set in stone.

[Brandon8181]

Stratton, is the GFS showing a several day period of highs in the 20s? And does it resemble Feb 2021?

For DFW the 18z GFS showed about roughly 43 hours of 21-32 degrees the end of the week of January 5th. In my opinion the GFS has appeared to be sniffing out something winter related that week for a few runs now. Not always exactly here in Texas per say, but it is definitely trying to figure out what the system is going to do.

Whatever happens remains to be seen and is to early to tell. Maybe we will see some run-to-run consistency without it jumping all over the place and then a few other models jump on board over the next week. We will see.

[Stratton23]

Obviously run to run is going to greatly vary on cold, but one important think to note on the GFS run overnight is how its moving the big cold up in time, was in the 340-384 hour range last couple of runs, now its moving up into the 276-300 hour range, still far out, but the GFS did shift up a couple of days in time with the cold, that is important

[Harp.1]

It ain’t gonna be there this time

[Brandon8181]

It ain’t gonna be there this time

There, then takes it away, then pushes it up north, then completely goes away. Who knows

[Stratton23]

Definitely not a warm run on the GFS, notice the first intial front just after new years day gives us a good cool down, but then waves of cold shots just keep coming beyond that, i like seeing that

[Throckmorton]

Brent ive noticed typically when an operational run of any model ( in this case the GFS) when it shows an extreme cold solution, it typically takes a few model cycles for the ensembles to catch on if at all ( and assuming the operational run doesnt drop it) so we will see if the GEFS starts coming in colder the next few runs

Ensembles usually don’t go full on Barney colors till it gets within close range. Like inside 5 days.

The ensemble maps we see typically are means. The extremes average out. Not so with deterministic models.

Only the ensembles should be trusted more than 5 days out.

[Brandon8181]

Does anyone have thoughts on more specific reason why one model run can be so vastly different than the next?

[Throckmorton]

For those wishing for an historic Arctic air outbreak, watch the German and Canadian deterministic models. They alone correctly forecast February 2021.

[Throckmorton]

Does anyone have thoughts on more specific reason why one model run can be so vastly different than the next?

Changing initial conditions.

[Stratton23]

Another slight shift west with the longwave trough noted on the 00z GEFS, down the road, any little shifts can make a huge difference on where the cold air spills to

[Harp.1]

Another slight shift west with the longwave trough noted on the 00z GEFS, down the road, any little shifts can make a huge difference on where the cold air spills to

I’m concerned about the precip

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 Dont worry about that this far out, their definitely is a decent signal on the GEPS/ GEFS for some storm systems ( maybe some frozen precipitation down the road)

[wxman57]

About a week ago, the GFS and EC were forecasting cross-Polar flow to develop next week. This would drive some very cold air into Canada. Now, models have given up on the cross-Polar flow. Thus, no big Arctic air push south.

[HockeyTx82]

About a week ago, the GFS and EC were forecasting cross-Polar flow to develop next week. This would drive some very cold air into Canada. Now, models have given up on the cross-Polar flow. Thus, no big Arctic air push south.

So I guess your wall got fortified?

Been busy I see.