Texas Winter 2024-2025

[wxman22]

There’s a non zero chance the shortwave that moves in on New Years Day may produce some light snow. It will depend on how organized or sheared the system is wether there’s precip with it or not.

[Brent]

The lack of snow pack north of here is concerning me. Hopefully next week drops some. Cause we're gonna need it if we're gonna get really cold

Also I still wonder if it's gonna be better east of here

[Cpv17]

Idk.. this doesn’t look too bad to me and this is the EPS.

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/187260057 ... _m1NXPw4Cg

I think in Texas you’ll take this.

[Cpv17]

The overnight EPS came in much colder and much further west. It now has a larger chunk of the country getting in on the cold air. It also looks like the Polar Vortex is going to be on our side of the globe as well. I think January still has potential. I wouldn’t give up hope yet.

[Cpv17]

There’s now potential for the PV to split instead of stretching and guidance is showing a huge piece of it breaking off on our side of the globe. It’s too early to get excited, but if that comes to fruition it would probably be pretty fun around here.

[Harp.1]

There’s now potential for the PV to split instead of stretching and guidance is showing a huge piece of it breaking off on our side of the globe. It’s too early to get excited, but if that comes to fruition it would probably be pretty fun around here.

What is the timeline for this?

[orangeblood]

About a week ago, the GFS and EC were forecasting cross-Polar flow to develop next week. This would drive some very cold air into Canada. Now, models have given up on the cross-Polar flow. Thus, no big Arctic air push south.

This is a really cold 5h signature for NA, the coldest air on the globe is coming to our part of the world for January. Now is it directed directly into the southern plains like Feb 2021? no but there’s plenty of cold to tap into now with any S/W moving across

[Cpv17]

There’s now potential for the PV to split instead of stretching and guidance is showing a huge piece of it breaking off on our side of the globe. It’s too early to get excited, but if that comes to fruition it would probably be pretty fun around here.

What is the timeline for this?

Second to third week of January is when it could split on our side of the globe.

[Texoz]

I wasn't expecting so much of east of I-35 to be in moderate drought, but imagine last few days have helped improve that level. The continued lack of rain west of I-35 is pushing large areas into severe, extreme or even exceptional drought.

[Cpv17]

About a week ago, the GFS and EC were forecasting cross-Polar flow to develop next week. This would drive some very cold air into Canada. Now, models have given up on the cross-Polar flow. Thus, no big Arctic air push south.

This is a really cold 5h signature for NA, the coldest air on the globe is coming to our part of the world for January. Now is it directed directly into the southern plains like Feb 2021? no but there’s plenty of cold to tap into now with any S/W moving across

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1735257600/1736402400-rRm17OMG0HI.png

That has time to improve for Texas.

[orangeblood]

About a week ago, the GFS and EC were forecasting cross-Polar flow to develop next week. This would drive some very cold air into Canada. Now, models have given up on the cross-Polar flow. Thus, no big Arctic air push south.

This is a really cold 5h signature for NA, the coldest air on the globe is coming to our part of the world for January. Now is it directed directly into the southern plains like Feb 2021? no but there’s plenty of cold to tap into now with any S/W moving across

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1735257600/1736402400-rRm17OMG0HI.png

That has time to improve for Texas.

Somewhat but without the southeast ridge resistance like 2021, core of cold will likely stay east

[Cpv17]

This is a really cold 5h signature for NA, the coldest air on the globe is coming to our part of the world for January. Now is it directed directly into the southern plains like Feb 2021? no but there’s plenty of cold to tap into now with any S/W moving across

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1735257600/1736402400-rRm17OMG0HI.png

That has time to improve for Texas.

Somewhat but without the southeast ridge resistance like 2021, core of cold will likely stay east

If the jet can retract some I think we’ll be alright here.

[Brent]

Im hoping since it's delayed til mid January that will help us but we'll see

That was probably always the issue with early January it would definitely be east

The one issue though we gotta stop pushing it back and get a timeframe going. That was my whole issue yesterday it feels like it's never gonna get closer in time

[Cpv17]

Im hoping since it's delayed til mid January that will help us but we'll see

That was probably always the issue with early January it would definitely be east

The one issue though we gotta stop pushing it back and get a timeframe going. That was my whole issue yesterday it feels like it's never gonna get closer in time

If the PV splits we won’t even really need a SE ridge for big time cold to come this way because much of the country would be encompassing it.

[Ntxw]

Im hoping since it's delayed til mid January that will help us but we'll see

That was probably always the issue with early January it would definitely be east

The one issue though we gotta stop pushing it back and get a timeframe going. That was my whole issue yesterday it feels like it's never gonna get closer in time

Original timing was Jan ~10th to 12th and after for possible sustained cold. Expectations grew for new years week because some cold appeared however then trended east. I'm with you though, constant 300 hours out feels forever. I'd just set your mind middle January is make or break, anything before set expectations low.

[Ntxw]

To add to the difficulty, the impulses or PVa energy is highly chaotic in this NW type flow for us. Slight alterations in orientation yields different outcomes. At the same time models are not consistent with disturbances, strengthening one run, weak the next etc. Won't know that piece until under 7 days if that.

[Cpv17]

To add to the difficulty, the impulses or PVa energy is highly chaotic in this NW type flow for us. Slight alterations in orientation yields different outcomes. At the same time models are not consistent with disturbances, strengthening one run, weak the next etc. Won't know that piece until under 7 days if that.

What do you make of this? It’s in the stratosphere, but what would that mean for us?

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/187264286 ... _m1NXPw4Cg

[Ntxw]

To add to the difficulty, the impulses or PVa energy is highly chaotic in this NW type flow for us. Slight alterations in orientation yields different outcomes. At the same time models are not consistent with disturbances, strengthening one run, weak the next etc. Won't know that piece until under 7 days if that.

What do you make of this? It’s in the stratosphere, but what would that mean for us?

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/187264286 ... _m1NXPw4Cg

Response will be pretty quick since the AO is forecasted to nosedive. It's one of those things the troposphere-stratosphere in sync deals. It would only reinforce the cold that will settle over North America well into February.

There is a really big dome of high pressure that will sit over the Beaufort soon. That is a strong correlation to cold outbreaks for us. Feb 21, Dec 22, and last Jan all had it.

[Cpv17]

To add to the difficulty, the impulses or PVa energy is highly chaotic in this NW type flow for us. Slight alterations in orientation yields different outcomes. At the same time models are not consistent with disturbances, strengthening one run, weak the next etc. Won't know that piece until under 7 days if that.

What do you make of this? It’s in the stratosphere, but what would that mean for us?

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/187264286 ... _m1NXPw4Cg

Response will be pretty quick since the AO is forecasted to nosedive. It's one of those things the troposphere-stratosphere in sync deals. It would only reinforce the cold that will settle over North America well into February.

There is a really big dome of high pressure that will sit over the Beaufort soon. That is a strong correlation to cold outbreaks for us. Feb 21, Dec 22, and last Jan all had it.

That’s what I was thinking as well. I love those big HP’s in the Beaufort Sea. That seems to be a sweet spot.

[Ntxw]

About a week ago, the GFS and EC were forecasting cross-Polar flow to develop next week. This would drive some very cold air into Canada. Now, models have given up on the cross-Polar flow. Thus, no big Arctic air push south.

This is a really cold 5h signature for NA, the coldest air on the globe is coming to our part of the world for January. Now is it directed directly into the southern plains like Feb 2021? no but there’s plenty of cold to tap into now with any S/W moving across

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1735257600/1736402400-rRm17OMG0HI.png

Looks more like January 1985, calmer version. If you minus the snow that occurred, the cold that came initially we were only on the fringes. It was way colder east of the MS (Reagan inauguration.) It was towards the end of the month and early February that the single digits came in a more western blast.

-8F in Atlanta and 10F in Dallas.



Late Jan/early Feb blast. 7F in Dallas with snow, while Atlanta got to 19F.