Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Throckmorton]

I was sitting here bemoaning the lack of winter weather and wondering if it really was that abnormal. Three of the top 10 warmest Decembers have occurred since 2021 in OKC.
https://www.weather.gov/oun/climate-records

The top 10 warmest winters on record in Oklahoma City:
(1).....1991/92
(2).....1931/32
(3).....2015/16 & 1999/2000
(5).....1975/76
(6).....1998/99
(7).....2016/17 & 1930/31
(9).....2004/05
(10)...2011/12

Since 1890/91, winters there have warmed by 2.8° F (or 1.8° C).

[Throckmorton]

I was sitting here bemoaning the lack of winter weather and wondering if it really was that abnormal. Three of the top 10 warmest Decembers have occurred since 2021 in OKC.
https://www.weather.gov/oun/climate-records

Speaking of, DFW may be on track for a top 10 warmest December this year, lol...

Ninth right now.

[Stratton23]

So far through hour 276 looking at the 500 mb height 24 hour change feature on weatherbell, the GEFS has trended towards a weaker/flatter + PNA ridge out west, troughing at hour 276 is a little more west compared to 12z run, seeing some good trends at the 500 mb level on the GEFS

[Brent]

So far through hour 276 looking at the 500 mb height 24 hour change feature on weatherbell, the GEFS has trended towards a weaker/flatter + PNA ridge out west, troughing at hour 276 is a little more west compared to 12z run, seeing some good trends at the 500 mb level on the GEFS

Yes someone on the east coast told me earlier this probably isn't our pattern and now I want to prove them wrong

[Stratton23]

Brent haha i do too, GEFS rub completed, and it definitely looks better on that run, still a long ways to go, but definitely encouraged

[Cpv17]

People on the EC are going nuts now on X after that 18z GEFS run.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

So far through hour 276 looking at the 500 mb height 24 hour change feature on weatherbell, the GEFS has trended towards a weaker/flatter + PNA ridge out west, troughing at hour 276 is a little more west compared to 12z run, seeing some good trends at the 500 mb level on the GEFS

Yes someone on the east coast told me earlier this probably isn't our pattern and now I want to prove them wrong

It goes to show you how difficult it is to get winter weather in the south. If it's true the pv split or will soon split and it's on our side, it will get cold. Just hope we can keep cold going for us past mid january maybe with better trough orientation

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 guess those folks never learned the dont celebrate too soon phrase, still far out, lets see if their tune changes a few days from now lol

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 guess those folks never learned the dont celebrate too soon phrase, still far out, lets see if their tune changes a few days from now lol

Eric Webb and all those big Mets over there are loving it lol

[wxman57]

About a week ago, the GFS and EC were forecasting cross-Polar flow to develop next week. This would drive some very cold air into Canada. Now, models have given up on the cross-Polar flow. Thus, no big Arctic air push south.

So I guess your wall got fortified?

Been busy I see.

Yeah, I've been taking a lot of comp days for working weekends over the hurricane season. Had some very large granite blocks shipped over to the Canadian border over the past week. I'll be reinforcing the secondary wall along the Red River next week.

[snownado]

I was sitting here bemoaning the lack of winter weather and wondering if it really was that abnormal. Three of the top 10 warmest Decembers have occurred since 2021 in OKC.
https://www.weather.gov/oun/climate-records

Speaking of, DFW may be on track for a top 10 warmest December this year, lol...

Ninth right now.

In addition, to-date, 2024 is currently tied with 2023 for the 2nd warmest year on record (69.7*F). For perspective, the warmest year on record is currently 2017 at 69.8*F.

Once 2024 officially concludes and knocks 1933 off the list, the oldest year in the top 10 ranking will be 1998 (and 8 of the 10 years will have all been in the 21st century)

[gpsnowman]

About a week ago, the GFS and EC were forecasting cross-Polar flow to develop next week. This would drive some very cold air into Canada. Now, models have given up on the cross-Polar flow. Thus, no big Arctic air push south.

So I guess your wall got fortified?

Been busy I see.

Yeah, I've been taking a lot of comp days for working weekends over the hurricane season. Had some very large granite blocks shipped over to the Canadian border over the past week. I'll be reinforcing the secondary wall along the Red River next week.

Both of the walls will come crashing down into little granite pebbles come January. They will not stop the Arctic from planting itself over the US.

[Brent]

Cpv17 guess those folks never learned the dont celebrate too soon phrase, still far out, lets see if their tune changes a few days from now lol

Yeah I'm not saying it will happen again but I know for a fact some of the long range cold has shifted west in recent years at this range cause I know people over there who haven't seen a flake in 2 years

It's way too far out still

There is a couple big EPS members here

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Cpv17 guess those folks never learned the dont celebrate too soon phrase, still far out, lets see if their tune changes a few days from now lol

Yeah I'm not saying it will happen again but I know for a fact some of the long range cold has shifted west in recent years at this range cause I know people over there who haven't seen a flake in 2 years

It's way too far out still

There is a couple big EPS members here

This is going to be there best chance in a while on the east coast. I'm hopeful we all will have our chances this winter at some point

[Brent]

Cpv17 guess those folks never learned the dont celebrate too soon phrase, still far out, lets see if their tune changes a few days from now lol

Yeah I'm not saying it will happen again but I know for a fact some of the long range cold has shifted west in recent years at this range cause I know people over there who haven't seen a flake in 2 years

It's way too far out still

There is a couple big EPS members here

This is going to be there best chance in a while on the east coast. I'm hopeful we all will have our chances this winter at some point

I mean if it follows 2021/2022 it was February for us

Personally I don't want to wait til then but I highly doubt this will be it. I'm hoping mid late January for a bigger storm

[orangeblood]

Speaking of, DFW may be on track for a top 10 warmest December this year, lol...

Ninth right now.

In addition, to-date, 2024 is currently tied with 2023 for the 2nd warmest year on record (69.7*F). For perspective, the warmest year on record is currently 2017 at 69.8*F.

Once 2024 officially concludes and knocks 1933 off the list, the oldest year in the top 10 ranking will be 1998 (and 8 of the 10 years will have all been in the 21st century)

Very skewed rankings now considering the concrete jungle that DFW has turned into

[Brent]

Our met posted a January snow map and it has more snow here than back east...

Looks more like climo than the current setup

The very southern edge is near DFW

[Gotwood]

I don’t typically look at the CFS (long range) but wow that is a very cold NA on the 12z.

[Ntxw]

East or no east the 0z GFS is looking like a chilly medium range. 1049hp is nothing to snooze at in January.

[Throckmorton]

The GEFS mean is still showing no Arctic air outbreaks in Texas. Nor does the GFS or AIFS.