Texas Winter 2024-2025

[HockeyTx82]

The GEFS mean is still showing no Arctic air outbreaks for Texas. Nor does the GFS or AIFS.

I see all these positive posts then read this......

Glass half empty or glass half full?

[Harp.1]

East or no east the 0z GFS is looking like a chilly medium range. 1049hp is nothing to snooze at in January.

So far, it’s bone dry

[Cpv17]

East or no east the 0z GFS is looking like a chilly medium range. 1049hp is nothing to snooze at in January.

So far, it’s bone dry

I understand most want snow, but I do get really excited at the opportunity for extreme cold. I think it’s pretty awesome. Not as awesome as snow, but what is? Lol

[Stratton23]

Throckmorton its still long range, but their definitely is arctic air building on the ensembles

[orangeblood]

East or no east the 0z GFS is looking like a chilly medium range. 1049hp is nothing to snooze at in January.

Stout Arctic HP train building on 0Z GFS, trough much further west

[Brent]

The ensembles have gotten colder since yesterday. At this stage that's really all we can watch for

[Stratton23]

orangeblood yup notice how the - EPO ridge is positioned much further west off the western us coast, that can make a huge difference in where the long wave trough sets up

[Brent]

EPS had near 50 for highs in January last night... Now it has 40s and even a couple days in the 30s. If that trend continues it will be arctic air in 7 days again gotta watch for trends

If it loses the trend or goes warmer don't worry I'll mention it

[Stratton23]

through hour 264 on the GFS, that trough is really digging way oit west

[Brent]

That was close to snow here at day 10

Snow at 288. Still so far out

[Stratton23]

Way colder run of the GFS, thats some legit arctic sir

[Brent]

The GFS almost looks like a southeast ridge now. Much more factorable approach for us

[orangeblood]

CMC going towards the GFS, good trend so far tonight

[Throckmorton]

Some GEFS mean temperature forecasts for Austin and some areas of Oklahoma and north Texas (along with the 90th and 10th forecast percentiles) for Jan. 11th (12/27, 18Z run):

47 (74)–29 (16)...Amarillo
53 (69)–37 (22)...Austin Camp Mabry
47 (64)–34 (22)...Dallas
43 (65)–29 (15)...Oklahoma City
37 (57)–27 (15)...Tulsa

[Throckmorton]

Today's high temperature of 82° at Austin Camp Mabry broke the record of 79° set in in 1954 and tied in 1979. The 82° high tied for the 35th–warmest December tenperature on record.

[Stratton23]

Holy moly now thats a potent arctic fromt on the Euro 00z, completely caved to the GFS…

[Cpv17]

Holy moly now thats a potent arctic fromt on the Euro 00z, completely caved to the GFS…

Heck yeah!

[Ntxw]

That's such a large area of -30s to -40s in southern Canada...jeesh.

[Ntxw]

30s in the northeastern part of the state for highs and the Arctic cold isn't even there yet.

[Harp.1]

For my liking, if it’s just gonna be a dry cold, it can stay where it is. But, that’s just me.