Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Ntxw]

The inconsistency of the GFS is mind blowing

GFS does send the PV into the Great Lakes, broad scale pattern is blocked so the lobe comes into the US albeit a bit further east than the Euro. Given the time range, shouldn't be too concerned but what is concerning (if you are wxman57) is that the set up is saying displacement of cold is in the cards.

[Stratton23]

when you’re over 10 days out from a potential arctic blast, models are going to struggle big time with the upper air pattern ( where blocking sets up, specifically where the -EPO ridge sets up, if its like this current GFS, the trough would be centered more over the eastern US ) If ifs like the overnight Euro with blocking more centered offshore of the western us coast, the trough would be centered more over the central plains, making a massive difference, uncertainty is still very high as Ntxw pointed out, dont worry about one operational run

[Tireman4]

As Jason alluded to and Jeff stated earlier on FB, with the storms spinning this early out of the gate, it could be a long day. We have a tornado warned storm in the Houston Metro area. I figured points I45 east into the Piney Woods, I was not expecting the Houston Metro area northward. It will be a long day.

[Ntxw]

when you’re over 10 days out from a potential arctic blast, models are going to struggle big time with the upper air pattern ( where blocking sets up, specifically where the -EPO ridge sets up, if its like this current GFS, the trough would be centered more over the eastern US ) If ifs like the overnight Euro with blocking more centered offshore of the western us coast, the trough would be centered more over the central plains, making a massive difference, uncertainty is still very high as Ntxw pointed out, dont worry about one operational run

The AO will nosedive negative. These model runs have resembled January 1985 middle of the month outbreak looks. Getting sub 500 thickness that far south is rare.

https://www.weather.gov/ilm/january1985cold

[Brandon8181]

when you’re over 10 days out from a potential arctic blast, models are going to struggle big time with the upper air pattern ( where blocking sets up, specifically where the -EPO ridge sets up, if its like this current GFS, the trough would be centered more over the eastern US ) If ifs like the overnight Euro with blocking more centered offshore of the western us coast, the trough would be centered more over the central plains, making a massive difference, uncertainty is still very high as Ntxw pointed out, dont worry about one operational run

Literally looks like it could go either way at this point.

[Ntxw]

when you’re over 10 days out from a potential arctic blast, models are going to struggle big time with the upper air pattern ( where blocking sets up, specifically where the -EPO ridge sets up, if its like this current GFS, the trough would be centered more over the eastern US ) If ifs like the overnight Euro with blocking more centered offshore of the western us coast, the trough would be centered more over the central plains, making a massive difference, uncertainty is still very high as Ntxw pointed out, dont worry about one operational run

Literally looks like it could go either way at this point.

If you want severe cold being in the middle of it is great, but dry, the fringes is where the snow is.

[Tireman4]

Just a heads up, this tornado warned storm has been moving near Jason and I. Fortunately, it is moving fast. It has serious spin to it and a nice hail core. This is just the start of a long day. Be safe

[Stratton23]

12z Euro is again very cold across the central US and Texas, trough digs in out west again

[Brent]

when you’re over 10 days out from a potential arctic blast, models are going to struggle big time with the upper air pattern ( where blocking sets up, specifically where the -EPO ridge sets up, if its like this current GFS, the trough would be centered more over the eastern US ) If ifs like the overnight Euro with blocking more centered offshore of the western us coast, the trough would be centered more over the central plains, making a massive difference, uncertainty is still very high as Ntxw pointed out, dont worry about one operational run

Literally looks like it could go either way at this point.

If you want severe cold being in the middle of it is great, but dry, the fringes is where the snow is.

Yeah last two times we went below zero the snow was not impressive

I would much rather snow at marginal temps tbh

[cheezyWXguy]

Just a heads up, this tornado warned storm has been moving near Jason and I. Fortunately, it is moving fast. It has serious spin to it and a nice hail core. This is just the start of a long day. Be safe

Circulation is still broad but looks to be ramping up a little. Storm north of there could go warned soon as well.

[Stratton23]

12z run of the Euro in addition to be colder for texas again, has several shortwaves interacting with arctic air in place, thats a fun run!

[Tireman4]

Just a heads up, this tornado warned storm has been moving near Jason and I. Fortunately, it is moving fast. It has serious spin to it and a nice hail core. This is just the start of a long day. Be safe

Circulation is still broad but looks to be ramping up a little. Storm north of there could go warned soon as well.

I was not expecting long trackers in our area. I was thinking East Texas and points east. I am not saying this tornado warned storm is, but it has stay warned for at least 30 minutes.

[cheezyWXguy]

Just a heads up, this tornado warned storm has been moving near Jason and I. Fortunately, it is moving fast. It has serious spin to it and a nice hail core. This is just the start of a long day. Be safe

Circulation is still broad but looks to be ramping up a little. Storm north of there could go warned soon as well.

I was not expecting long trackers in our area. I was thinking East Texas and points east. I am not saying this tornado warned storm is, but it has stay warned for at least 30 minutes.

I don’t think the western edge was so supposed to be so far west today. IIRC previous spc outlooks had the slight risk east of Houston. Am a little concerned that the setup will live up to the hype today in Louisiana, given what’s happened so far.

[Tireman4]

Circulation is still broad but looks to be ramping up a little. Storm north of there could go warned soon as well.

I was not expecting long trackers in our area. I was thinking East Texas and points east. I am not saying this tornado warned storm is, but it has stay warned for at least 30 minutes.

I don’t think the western edge was so supposed to be so far west today. IIRC previous spc outlooks had the slight risk east of Houston. Am a little concerned that the setup will live up to the hype today in Louisiana, given what’s happened so far.

Agreed. The readings did not support the stoutness of these storms. Interesting. Also, there is back building to the west.

[cheezyWXguy]

Tornado on the ground for sure now. Cc drop is obvious

[Ntxw]

Circulation is still broad but looks to be ramping up a little. Storm north of there could go warned soon as well.

I was not expecting long trackers in our area. I was thinking East Texas and points east. I am not saying this tornado warned storm is, but it has stay warned for at least 30 minutes.

I don’t think the western edge was so supposed to be so far west today. IIRC previous spc outlooks had the slight risk east of Houston. Am a little concerned that the setup will live up to the hype today in Louisiana, given what’s happened so far.

Made a post yesterday showing even less than 48 hours out how for south (and west) the PVa was coming out. Models whiffed on placement. Much more dig thus allowing neutral-neg tilt and stronger.

[Ntxw]

Euro sends arctic front through (after it's already cold) and PVa lobe is sitting over the Dakotas. May not be as extreme early on as 0z but pretty potent.

[wxman22]

12Z Euro

[Ntxw]

This is definitely much better run for us, it's stretched out further west. Much more aligned to drive it south.

[Tireman4]

Update from Houston Metro area, long track tornado still on the ground. It is just to the west of Splendora and moving fast.

ornado Warning
12/28/2024 12:14 CST through 12/28/2024 12:45 CST

Tornado Warning issued December 28 at 12:14PM CST until December 28 at 12:45PM CST by NWS Houston/Galveston TX
At 1213 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located near Woodbranch, or 12 miles north of Kingwood, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.

The tornado will be near...
Cleveland, Splendora, Patton Village, Roman Forest, Plum Grove,
and North Cleveland around 1220 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include New
Caney.
Instructions
To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.