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Expert Forecasts for the 2024 NATL Hurricane Season
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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cycloneye
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 NATL Hurricane Season
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 NATL Hurricane Season
Looking back at the past 4 seasons, UA April forecasts have been a very good predictor of activity, in fact their forecast skill was better in those 4 Aprils than their June forecasts, wonder why is this?
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Category5Kaiju
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Re: Expert Forecasts for the 2024 NATL Hurricane Season
Ernestt wrote:Looking back at the past 4 seasons, UA April forecasts have been a very good predictor of activity, in fact their forecast skill was better in those 4 Aprils than their June forecasts, wonder why is this?
It's because they look at sst anomalies in the Atlantic and how those anomalies are positioned. I know earlier this year people were talking about how sst anomalies are not everything (which is true), especially during the lull, but in the grand scheme of things, sst anomalies are a very good indicator of how generally active the Atlantic would be.
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Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.
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