Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Gotwood]

Much better consensus on a Major Arctic Outbreak heading to the lower 48. The ensembles are in really good agreement the core of the cold will be centered towards the Ohio Valley so now it’s a matter of how expansive this air gets. Euro Ens and GEPS a little more tightly wound with the cold while the GEFS trending towards a much more expansive look into the southern plains.

Euro Ens
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/t850_anom_5day/1735430400/1736683200-R7YFMB6r3t8.png

Canadian Ens
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t850_anom_5day/1735430400/1736683200-yoJAIl3IX8Y.png

GEFS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t850_anom_5day/1735452000/1736683200-RhoatbLgzUI.png

So would that be considered model agreement? And what kind of temperatures would we be looking at for North Texas

Well just judging by that I would assume you can throw all those super cold runs out the door for Texas. +PNA will win out this go around.

[orangeblood]

Much better consensus on a Major Arctic Outbreak heading to the lower 48. The ensembles are in really good agreement the core of the cold will be centered towards the Ohio Valley so now it’s a matter of how expansive this air gets. Euro Ens and GEPS a little more tightly wound with the cold while the GEFS trending towards a much more expansive look into the southern plains.

Euro Ens
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/t850_anom_5day/1735430400/1736683200-R7YFMB6r3t8.png

Canadian Ens
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t850_anom_5day/1735430400/1736683200-yoJAIl3IX8Y.png

GEFS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t850_anom_5day/1735452000/1736683200-RhoatbLgzUI.png

So would that be considered model agreement? And what kind of temperatures would we be looking at for North Texas

Yes, good agreement the cold is coming. It’s just a matter of severity and expanse. Too early to tell on both but should have a much better idea over the next few days. Storm chances will take longer to figure out, likely later in the week

[orangeblood]

Much better consensus on a Major Arctic Outbreak heading to the lower 48. The ensembles are in really good agreement the core of the cold will be centered towards the Ohio Valley so now it’s a matter of how expansive this air gets. Euro Ens and GEPS a little more tightly wound with the cold while the GEFS trending towards a much more expansive look into the southern plains.

Euro Ens
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/t850_anom_5day/1735430400/1736683200-R7YFMB6r3t8.png

Canadian Ens
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t850_anom_5day/1735430400/1736683200-yoJAIl3IX8Y.png

GEFS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t850_anom_5day/1735452000/1736683200-RhoatbLgzUI.png

So would that be considered model agreement? And what kind of temperatures would we be looking at for North Texas

Well just judging by that I would assume you can throw all those super cold runs out the door for Texas. +PNA will win out this go around.

Not necessarily, still think it’s too early to tell. More GEFS members are starting to go towards the “super cold” solution and if there’s a major storm this could get even colder

[Brent]

If we get the historic storm the Euro is hinting at all bets are off

But that's a huge IF

[HockeyTx82]

So would that be considered model agreement? And what kind of temperatures would we be looking at for North Texas

Well just judging by that I would assume you can throw all those super cold runs out the door for Texas. +PNA will win out this go around.

Not necessarily, still think it’s too early to tell. More GEFS members are starting to go towards the “super cold” solution and if there’s a major storm this could get even colder

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_c_anom_multimember_panel/1735452000/1736532000-HDW5wvsvm4c.png

I'm pulling for p04 and p22!

[wxman22]

As Ntwx mentioned yesterday if you're looking for a winterstorm being on the "edge" of the arctic air can benefit you. As storms ride the battle zone between the ridge and trough. Getting the heart of the cold air can sometimes mean you're too dry for precip.

[wxman57]

Out of curiosity, I plotted all the 00Z model data that goes out to 10 days (or longer). The Euro is quite the outlier as far as the cold across Texas. The plot is for Houston. It's too far out to have any confidence in a model.

http://wxman57.com/images/00Z29Models.jpg

[Ntxw]

There is very little snow cover to our north up through Montana (none) which will change with the storm next weekend with antecedent cold air before the bigger one. In essence it will cool down New Year's week, then get a little colder by week's end. These cold waves seldom are in isolation.

Oklahoma likely gets below freezing next Sunday and be done with anything above that for awhile.

[Brent]

Pete Delkus said winter is coming

[Ntxw]

GFS looking like it wants to do a big winter storm.

[Ntxw]

GFS looking like it wants to do a big winter storm.

Not quite that big but does have snow along the I-20 and I-45 corridor.

[Cpv17]

GFS looking like it wants to do a big winter storm.

Not quite that big but does have snow along the I-20 and I-45 corridor.

I’m sure it’ll blow up east of here.

[Brent]

Reed Timmer made a post about a snow apocalypse mostly east of us but still

[Ntxw]

GFS looking like it wants to do a big winter storm.

Not quite that big but does have snow along the I-20 and I-45 corridor.

I’m sure it’ll blow up east of here.

Some, overall it was weaker than last night's run further east. Now the GFS is breaking up the cold in chunks with another cold shot behind it? . Might be another system on this run. That's not consistency.

I think the focus is still around the 9th-10th but it's possible cold will come in smaller waves before that, it's just too far out to grasp how it will play out.

[Brent]

Yeah if east of here gets buried we better get ours or I will never forgive nature and that's all there is to say about that

[wxman22]

12Z GFS shows a setup that could produce multiple winter storm opportunities.



Storm #1



Storm #2

[Ntxw]

If you're in Texas this is probably your best GFS run yet. Snows down south of Brownsville on the 11th. For majority of the run the trough is open further west and the high is able to spill it out more.

[gpsnowman]

I had the Cowboys Eagles game pegged as a cold weather game all season. High of 62 today in Philadelphia.

[orangeblood]

If you're in Texas this is probably your best GFS run yet. Snows down south of Brownsville on the 11th. For majority of the run the trough is open further west and the high is able to spill it out more.

The more expansive solution makes much more sense than these consolidated PV solutions. Going back to its 18Z run yesterday and more in line with the Euro again. GEFS was hinting at this during 06Z,

— AO —EPO just overwhelming NA will continued Arctic HPs thru the period

[Brent]

Still almost every EPS member has some snow here

The pattern is loaded for sure

And I highly doubt this day 9 storm is etched in stone