Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Ntxw]

If you're in Texas this is probably your best GFS run yet. Snows down south of Brownsville on the 11th. For majority of the run the trough is open further west and the high is able to spill it out more.

The more expansive solution makes much more sense than these consolidated PV solutions. Going back to its 18Z run yesterday and more in line with the Euro again. GEFS was hinting at this during 06Z,

— AO —EPO just overwhelming NA will continued Arctic HPs thru the period

I know wxman57 said the euro is outlier but it's the most consistent regarding 500mb pieces. Though I do think there will be waves of cold prior to the big one.

[Ntxw]

Also there isn't going to be much of a warm pattern beyond this. Nearly all the long range suites as mentioned overnight are retrograding the longwave trough. From Jan 15-20 it will center the anomalies in south-central and w-can. We are liable for another big cold snap during this time frame where the ridge/trough placement will be much more conducive for the Great Plains. I think you can hedge on 1985 kind of back half of the season in terms of ENSO and how the teleconnections played out. MJO is very favorable.

[wxman22]

The CMC also trended colder and has a winter storm setup on the 6th.

[orangeblood]

The CMC also trended colder and has a winter storm setup on the 6th.

https://i.ibb.co/28b1jq8/gem-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-32.png

GEFS mean now trending further southwest towards four corners region with the first storm system Jan 6-7th, confidence increasing on a major winter storm across the southern US. Notice the southeast ridge showing up, should help with coastal low formation

[Stratton23]

I love the 12z Euro, hangs back energy over the desert SW and produces snow from west texas to houston

[orangeblood]

I love the 12z Euro, hangs back energy over the desert SW and produces snow from west texas to houston

Cuts off a ULL over northern Mexico, big outlier looking over ensembles. 12Z Euro likely one we may need to toss out

[Brent]

Rain snow mix starting to appear Saturday night on the TWC app here

We haven't even had anything get into forecast range yet this winter

[Ntxw]

Rain snow mix starting to appear Saturday night on the TWC app here

We haven't even had anything get into forecast range yet this winter

-20s and -30s will be in southern Alberta and Saskatchewan late this coming week. You should expect the cold to outrun some of the guidance and/or be colder than forecast. Maybe Saturday you'll go below freezing and it's all frozen anything that falls beyond that this month.

[Ntxw]

I love the 12z Euro, hangs back energy over the desert SW and produces snow from west texas to houston

Cuts off a ULL over northern Mexico, big outlier looking over ensembles. 12Z Euro likely one we may need to toss out

While it's hard to buy stuff at the surface 200 hours out, this is kind of what I was hoping for. It's the best way to get a big snow storm out of a pattern like this for us. Westward trough trends is what we are after.

[orangeblood]

I love the 12z Euro, hangs back energy over the desert SW and produces snow from west texas to houston

Cuts off a ULL over northern Mexico, big outlier looking over ensembles. 12Z Euro likely one we may need to toss out

While it's hard to buy stuff at the surface 200 hours out, this is kind of what I was hoping for. It's the best way to get a big snow storm out of a pattern like this for us. Westward trough trends is what we are after.

Trend is definitely south and west across all ensembles, now a cut off is getting greedy

[Ntxw]

Cuts off a ULL over northern Mexico, big outlier looking over ensembles. 12Z Euro likely one we may need to toss out

While it's hard to buy stuff at the surface 200 hours out, this is kind of what I was hoping for. It's the best way to get a big snow storm out of a pattern like this for us. Westward trough trends is what we are after.

Trend is definitely south and west across all ensembles, now a cut off is getting greedy

Not quite to the Baja , but slowing it down some in AZ/NM would definitely provide ample overrunning. No one to the east gets much of anything on this Euro run, as you said outlier. I'd just look for the trends and see what the next run does.

[Cpv17]

Someone should provide a gif of the trends. Sure would like to see that.

[wxman57]

12Z EC is MUCH warmer for Houston next week. Only a light freeze (32F) on Thursday, Jan. 9th. However, it has 1.5" of snow in SW Houston with temps in the mid to upper 30s the day before on Wednesday, Jan 8th. It's about 25-30 deg warmer than the GFS for the 8th-11th. MAYBE, the models will begin to get a handle on the situation in 5-6 days (by next Saturday). Until then, I wouldn't hold my breath and trust any model run that has snow for your area.

[Ntxw]

Wxman57 will love this. In 24 hours one set of 12z Euro to another. 300+ hours.

[wxman57]

Wxman57 will love this. In 24 hours one set of 12z Euro to another. 300+ hours.

https://i.imgur.com/GB9liyP.png

https://i.imgur.com/v7uLGW7.png

Yeah, that's why I say trust any model run this far out with a grain of salt. Lucy is holding the football for Charlie Brown. Don't be Charlie Brown.

[Ntxw]

Wxman57 will love this. In 24 hours one set of 12z Euro to another. 300+ hours.

https://i.imgur.com/GB9liyP.png

https://i.imgur.com/v7uLGW7.png

Yeah, that's why I say trust any model run this far out with a grain of salt. Lucy is holding the football for Charlie Brown. Don't be Charlie Brown.

To be fair, I still think the coldest air of the season for us will come later in January. Until then we want a snow storm!

[Stratton23]

Very good agreement on an extended very cold period in texas on the GEFS/ GEPS, pretty strong signal for a winter storm across the state, 17/50 EPS members have snow in houston lol

[Brent]

Not nearly as cold on the Euro here

GFS is now the much colder op run. A week below freezing and that's with next Sunday near 50 which I highly doubt happens

[Tammie]

Not nearly as cold on the Euro here

GFS is now the much colder op run. A week below freezing and that's with next Sunday near 50 which I highly doubt happens

Time frame please?

[Brent]

Not nearly as cold on the Euro here

GFS is now the much colder op run. A week below freezing and that's with next Sunday near 50 which I highly doubt happens

Time frame please?

Initial storm is next Sunday Monday and then possibly extremely cold and more after that towards mid late week that week

Gonna be plenty of windows it appears