Texas Winter 2024-2025

[gpsnowman]

Should we be concerned about snow cover to our north or lack there of? Hopefully this upcoming week will drop some snow in the northern states and southern Canada.

[Sambucol2024]

GEFS 18z a touch colder, but like seeing a little bit of a se ridge to make that trough dig more SW

Does the SE ridge making the trough dig more SW affect the track to Texas? Colder for us?

[Throckmorton]

Should we be concerned about snow cover to our north or lack there of? Hopefully this upcoming week will drop some snow in the northern states and southern Canada.

Quite a bit of snow will fall in Kansas, western Nebrasks, and eastern Colorado on Jan. 4–5 according to the GFS model.

[Stratton23]

Sambucol2024 its better for a winter storm in the deep south as se ridging can help troughs to dig more SW due to the orientation of the se ridge, so many of our winter storms have had at least some degree of se ridge present

[Throckmorton]

GEFS 18z a touch colder, but like seeing a little bit of a se ridge to make that trough dig more SW

Does the SE ridge making the trough dig more SW affect the track to Texas? Colder for us?

Honestly, everything affects everything else. Sort of like wondering whether the chicken or the egg came first. The best one can say is that pattern X is positively (or negatively) correlated with pattern Y.

[Throckmorton]

Some GEFS–mean temperature forecasts for Austin, College Station, and a few areas of Oklahoma and north Texas (along with the 90th and 10th forecast percentiles) for Jan. 9th (12/29, 18Z run):

41 (56)–19 (08)...Amarillo
47 (65)–28 (19)...Austin Camp Mabry
46 (63)–30 (21)...College Station
40 (59)–26 (16)...Dallas
34 (54)–19 (09)...Oklahoma City
31 (52)–15 (05)...Tulsa

[snowballzzz]

Looks like the southeast is going to get the brunt of this cold next week. At least we might get a glancing blow here in Texas. We still have a solid two months of some colder weather chances, so let’s hope the PNA can go more negative by the end of February.

[Stratton23]

snowballzzz not a glancing blow this time, we definitely are going to get a good chunk of that arctic air, PNA is positive but but not strong positive , that arctic air is coming to texas, while the most severe of it lay be to our east, texas will be entrenched in this airmass as well, not missing out this time around

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Bamwx posted a new video on upcoming pattern on YouTube a few hours ago.

[gboudx]

DFW NWS:

The next system is expected sometime over the weekend, and we should
have enough moisture return ahead of this system for at least some
rain production. The weekend system also looks to send relatively
colder air down the Plains. We know there is some information
floating around about abnormally cold air arriving next weekend
into the following week, but only about 25% of ensemble guidance
is indicating temperatures colder that our first cold spell in
early December, and those ensemble forecasts are only a few
degrees colder than what we recorded in early December.

Will those 25% of ensembles be correct? Guess we’ll see.

[Cpv17]

DFW NWS:

The next system is expected sometime over the weekend, and we should
have enough moisture return ahead of this system for at least some
rain production. The weekend system also looks to send relatively
colder air down the Plains. We know there is some information
floating around about abnormally cold air arriving next weekend
into the following week, but only about 25% of ensemble guidance
is indicating temperatures colder that our first cold spell in
early December, and those ensemble forecasts are only a few
degrees colder than what we recorded in early December.

Will those 25% of ensembles be correct? Guess we’ll see.

Lol damn… that’s pretty sad.

[HockeyTx82]

DFW NWS:

The next system is expected sometime over the weekend, and we should
have enough moisture return ahead of this system for at least some
rain production. The weekend system also looks to send relatively
colder air down the Plains. We know there is some information
floating around about abnormally cold air arriving next weekend
into the following week, but only about 25% of ensemble guidance
is indicating temperatures colder that our first cold spell in
early December, and those ensemble forecasts are only a few
degrees colder than what we recorded in early December.

Will those 25% of ensembles be correct? Guess we’ll see.

Lol damn… that’s pretty sad.

IIRC they played the same for 2021 so as not to get burned. We might not be talking extremes but they also have to play with sides.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

DFW NWS:

The next system is expected sometime over the weekend, and we should
have enough moisture return ahead of this system for at least some
rain production. The weekend system also looks to send relatively
colder air down the Plains. We know there is some information
floating around about abnormally cold air arriving next weekend
into the following week, but only about 25% of ensemble guidance
is indicating temperatures colder that our first cold spell in
early December, and those ensemble forecasts are only a few
degrees colder than what we recorded in early December.

Will those 25% of ensembles be correct? Guess we’ll see.

Lol damn… that’s pretty sad.

IIRC they played the same for 2021 so as not to get burned. We might not be talking extremes but they also have to play with sides.

We can pretty much eliminate Feb 2021 type scenario imo. Different type setup this time. Perhaps later in january it will be more directed towards texas.

[Stratton23]

Golfisnteasy7575 we can absolutely not rule off extreme cold yet, remember this is cold air that is getting dislodged straight from the arctic circle, we also had a stretch or SSW 2 weeks ago, extreme cold is still in the cards depending on where the tropohseric polar vortex ends up, nothings off the table yet, also its not going to be a glancing blow for texas, we are going to get a good piece of that arctic air

[Wthrfan]

Are we getting out over our skies a bit? Still a long ways out and some prominent models and some knowledgeable posters are saying the brunt will either be to the east or not near as bad as some of models are showing. I think I may just be cynical considering the uneventful and mainly warm last 3 or 4 winters.

[Throckmorton]

There's no conspiracy among National Weather Service forecast offices to downplay the upcoming cooler / colder air. Nor did that happen in Feb. 2021. That year, FWD said in its forecast discussions that it was ignoring the ECMWF and GFS guidance because they were unrealistically warm. FWD was on top of that historic outbreak. Here's an example of its messaging:

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDFWD&e=202102060104

[Brent]

Are we getting out over our skies a bit? Still a long ways out and some prominent models and some knowledgeable posters are saying the brunt will either be to the east or not near as bad as some of models are showing. I think I may just be cynical considering the uneventful and mainly warm last 3 or 4 winters.

Oh I'm very curious to see how things trend here with next week... I mean I moved to Tulsa a month after February 2021 and yet I've not seen one storm actually trend better as we get closer in so long...

The other thing is that every year I've been here we've had flakes by now so that's definitely got me wondering and the last two winters have been worse than I ever imagined they could be here. Like honestly my goal next week is just to see some accumulation kind of like January this year and hope we get a better storm eventually

Because I think this winter is going to tell the tale here... Time is gonna be up on we should have better storms this year with our climo. I don't really think next week is probably it but yes at some point before April... We gotta do better

[Ntxw]

0z ICON gives Tulsa snow late this weekend. The initial cold shot is colder than any other model, this is before the real stuff. As noted we are viable to possibly beat the models as time gets closer and might be waves of cold. Should be frigid in Canada.

And there is still time to yet trend this south to cover much of Oklahoma.

[wxman22]

[Stratton23]

Man that ICON run is way colder than the other globals