Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Ntxw]

Man that ICON run is way colder than the other globals

Yeah, just one run closer to the end of it but still kind of lays out the idea when cold regimes settle it's often not one singular blast. We're in for an extended block that analogs say is a long term cold pattern across the eastern US.

By this coming Thurs/Friday deep, dense cold air mass will sit along the US-Canadian border.

[HockeyTx82]

Man that ICON run is way colder than the other globals

Throw it out with the bathwater.

Preferably before the front gets here so you don't freeze your front porch and make an ice rink.

[Brent]

That icon run doesn't look like its going east.... How odd

[Ntxw]

That icon run doesn't look like its going east.... How odd

The way is blocked. We've been seeing this in real time with these systems, hence the tornado outbreak yesterday further south.

[Throckmorton]

https://i.ibb.co/qp0TM3p/sfct-imp-us-sc-11.png

Upstream in western Nebraska where the high pressure will be centered, temperatures will be around –22° F. The animation shows the 1045 mb high center moving due south into the Texas panhandle, where the pressure already will be 1040 mb.

Some forecast temps on Jan. 6 at midnight CST:
..6...Enid
..7...Amarillo
..9...Oklahoma City
..9...Tulsa
13...Lubbock
14...Wichita Falls
15...Abilene
18...Midland
18...San Angelo
19...Dallas
21...Waco
24...Austin
26...San Antonio
32...Houston
34...El Paso
35...Corpus Christi
46...Brownsville

According to ICON, even more Arctic high pressure systems (each at least 1041 mb) will be lined up all the way across the Arctic to northwestern Siberia. Major cross polar flow sets up, ready to move into Canada and then the U. S.

We ignore ICON at our peril. I think this will be the real deal.

[Gotwood]

Icon did well with last winters arctic air as well if I recall correctly.

[Ntxw]

Icon did well with last winters arctic air as well if I recall correctly.

With some of the recent arctic outbreaks it has done a decent job portraying cold air damming, downhill spill of cold in the plains where other models at times have struggled due to upper flow.

[Brent]

Yes if I recall right the icon was the only one that was right about the January cold this year

Ignore at your own peril indeed

[Ntxw]

GFS has Tulsa 50F while ICON was 34 for Sunday morning. Good test numbers to measure. But really GFS is just slower with the front.

[Stratton23]

CMC is way colder at day 5

[Brent]

Highs in the 20s on TV just now

[TheAustinMan]

It's worth noting that the initial surge of cold air can often be too warm and too slow compared to reality because it is difficult to accurately depict what happens near the surface where the shallow cold air lies. This is especially true of synoptic-scale global guidance, whose terrain resolution and number of vertical levels available at low levels can be more limited due to computing constraints.

[Gotwood]

CMC is way colder at day 5

When CMC and ICON align I get excited. Looks like CMC still likes the more eastern solution.

[Ntxw]

0z GFS has a potent system/vorticity coming out Jan 7th. Just a little too dry at the surface.

[wxman22]

The CMC came in further south with the storm on the 6th.

[Ntxw]

Late GFS run is chaotic. Gets cold, warms up, gets cold, warms up...it's struggling with that 591+ ridge off the west coast and cold air mass trough, along with which piece of vorticity goes where.

[Cpv17]

Late GFS run is chaotic. Gets cold, warms up, gets cold, warms up...it's struggling with that 591+ ridge off the west coast and cold air mass trough, along with which piece of vorticity goes where.

So in other words, long ways to go lol

[Gotwood]

Late GFS run is chaotic. Gets cold, warms up, gets cold, warms up...it's struggling with that 591+ ridge off the west coast and cold air mass trough, along with which piece of vorticity goes where.

So in other words, long ways to go lol

Long ways to go for the GFS.

[Brent]

Last 3 days of the forecast near or below freezing here on TV

Could be a lot colder for sure

[Ralph's Weather]

Globals will struggle with resolving the PNA ridge out west vs the Arctic trough to our NE. The cold will come in faster initially than modeled and the cold not moderate near as quickly as models indicate between waves. Can't ride the roller coaster of individual model runs. Follow trends and trust your knowledge of past events.