Texas Winter 2024-2025

Winter Weather Discussion

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Ralph's Weather
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1401 Postby Ralph's Weather » Mon Dec 30, 2024 10:56 am

HockeyTx82 wrote:
Brent wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:It's not about being excited about a particular event. It's the overall pattern that is incredible. The cold and storminess will be prolonged so everyone will have multiple chances. And the first storm comes this weekend so getting within range to begin to look at some specifics on that one.


Right we all know a week out the models aren't gonna be right about the snow it's more the larger picture and why I keep saying look at the ensembles. It's gonna be vague for awhile still but the pattern is definitely loaded

I mean when do we see ensembles with snow into the Gulf. Not even every winter


Yes we do, but it's always two weeks out along with the Cat 5.

There is a chance that some of us drop below freezing at some point Sunday and don't recover above that for days. Along with it there will be storms every day or two crossing our region. This is not fantasy range but it is beyond range for details of precip still.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1402 Postby Brent » Mon Dec 30, 2024 10:57 am

Portastorm wrote:Hey guys, what's up? Anything going on? :wink:


Oh now it's getting serious :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1403 Postby TexasF6 » Mon Dec 30, 2024 11:05 am

Brent wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Hey guys, what's up? Anything going on? :wink:


Oh now it's getting serious :double:


Grey Goose and Champ The Charger enter the chat!!! :D :D :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1404 Postby Brandon8181 » Mon Dec 30, 2024 11:06 am

Portastorm wrote:Hey guys, what's up? Anything going on? :wink:


You want snow; you've got snow!
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1405 Postby Portastorm » Mon Dec 30, 2024 11:10 am

gpsnowman wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Hey guys, what's up? Anything going on? :wink:

Welcome back to the forum Porta ,we missed you around here. Hope you enjoy your upper 80s today down in Austin. Could be a while before we get that high again. Hopefully.


Thanks! Yeah, we're looking at 86° here today. Crazy! I'm enjoying the dialogue here as always and am watching closely now. Everyone here is offering some great insights. So proud of this forum and all of you who participate here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1406 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Dec 30, 2024 11:17 am

Portastorm wrote:Hey guys, what's up? Anything going on? :wink:



Hey Porta. What a game yesterday. My goodness the Browns...Tee Hee
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1407 Postby wxman57 » Mon Dec 30, 2024 11:21 am

Well, the Euro clearly hates Houston (and Texas), sending all that cold air and snow down here. I've always said, though, that the only good use for cold is snow. Well, we'll see what actually pans out. Here is my 00Z model plot for Houston. I see the EC-AIFS dropped about 20-25 degrees from yesterday's 12Z run, which was quite warm compared to other models. The one positive factor as far as temps below 20 here in Houston is the lack of snow cover all the way to Montana. Looks like a busy week coming up. Clients are already calling about the cold next week.

http://www.wxman57.com/images/00Z30Models.jpg

http://www.wxman57.com/images/00Z30ECSnow.jpg
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1408 Postby Portastorm » Mon Dec 30, 2024 11:22 am

Tireman4 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Hey guys, what's up? Anything going on? :wink:



Hey Porta. What a game yesterday. My goodness the Browns...Tee Hee


You had the ruin a perfectly good vibe! :lol:

Let's focus our efforts on giving Wxman57 a Bahamas vacation.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1409 Postby Stratton23 » Mon Dec 30, 2024 11:32 am

12z runs show that the GFS is not seeing this pattern well at all , CMC looks good
Last edited by Stratton23 on Mon Dec 30, 2024 11:37 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1410 Postby Gotwood » Mon Dec 30, 2024 11:34 am

Stratton23 wrote:12z runs are hot garbage

Yeah feels like this happens all the time.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1411 Postby wxman22 » Mon Dec 30, 2024 11:36 am

The CMC shows an ice storm for the red river counties and north into the panhandle and Oklahoma. The ICON and CMC may be hinting that the storm next weekend may be further south and west.

Image

Image
Last edited by wxman22 on Mon Dec 30, 2024 11:46 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1412 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Dec 30, 2024 11:40 am

Portastorm wrote:
Tireman4 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Hey guys, what's up? Anything going on? :wink:



Hey Porta. What a game yesterday. My goodness the Browns...Tee Hee


You had the ruin a perfectly good vibe! :lol:

Let's focus our efforts on giving Wxman57 a Bahamas vacation.


Well, I have rented, on standby, the Super Duper Radiant Deluxe 50000 BTW Propane Heater. It is rated as super deluxe and can heat up a small village in 6 hours. Shall I send that to him for next week?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1413 Postby Brent » Mon Dec 30, 2024 11:48 am

Stratton23 wrote:12z runs show that the GFS is not seeing this pattern well at all , CMC looks good


What else is new. The GFS is always lost :lol:

That CMC run up here though :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1414 Postby dhweather » Mon Dec 30, 2024 12:18 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
Brent wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:

Yes we do, but it's always two weeks out along with the Cat 5.


Did someone say CAT 5 IN THE GULF !!!!!!!!! :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1415 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Dec 30, 2024 12:19 pm

dhweather wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:
Brent wrote:


Did someone say CAT 5 IN THE GULF !!!!!!!!! :lol:



Finally, there is some semblance of sanity to all of this.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1416 Postby wxman57 » Mon Dec 30, 2024 12:24 pm

I think the 12Z GFS may still be a little too cool, with highs only into the upper 60s next week. My wall will hold better than that!

Of note is the 500mb flow comparison between GFS, EC, and CMC. GFS is the only model that has no short wave rotating into west Texas next Wednesday. Once such a wave would reach El Paso, a west Gulf low will develop if there is already a front offshore. That's how we CAN get snow along the Gulf coast. Issue may be lack of snow to the north allowing too much modification of the airmass before it gets Texas. Also, the DFW area is almost always left high and dry in such a pattern.

Reminder, it's WAY too early to be confident in any model. We won't have much confidence until maybe next Sunday or Monday. Long way off.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1417 Postby JDawg512 » Mon Dec 30, 2024 12:31 pm

Well looks like I'm hooked into all this cold talk madness now too. :cold: I plan to start getting my fireplace prepared with some wood stock and get the faucets covered at least for freezing temps which are looking more likely.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1418 Postby aggiecutter » Mon Dec 30, 2024 1:05 pm

12Z GFS shunts most of the cold to the East.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1419 Postby Stratton23 » Mon Dec 30, 2024 1:13 pm

aggiecutter i wouldnt worry about it, the GFS is having big issues handeling the - EPO ridge off the west coast, it will correct back in due time
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1420 Postby Stratton23 » Mon Dec 30, 2024 1:28 pm

12z Euro coming in even more aggressive with winter weather in south central and se texas lol
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