Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Brent]

Winter/fall weather has been depressing in WF so far, so I haven't really been on the site. What did I miss?!?!

Yeah it's pretty crazy how we haven't even had a flake yet(latest since I've been here to not see any)... I dunno about Sunday that far south(even here it's probably borderline) barring some crazy trends but hopefully next week will do something better. The +PNA is still hurting us a lot but it's still so far out and there will be 50 different model solutions im sure

[HockeyTx82]

Operationals continue to look interesting but ensembles (in particular latest 12z EPS) leave the door wide open for a swing and a miss in terms of impactful cold/winter weather.

Just feel like the positive PNA signal is going to be the fly in the ointment again and therfore keep the coldest weather east. Ensembles seem to align with that compared to their operationals

And there's the out. Winter Cancel!

[Brent]

Even with that GFS run the EPS snow mean is like an inch here

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 wont really matter if the coldest anomalies our to our east, should still have enoufh cold air to work with in texas, ensembles also agree on the shortwave digging to our sw, the setup for winter weather potential is about as good as it gets down here

[Iceresistance]

Operationals continue to look interesting but ensembles (in particular latest 12z EPS) leave the door wide open for a swing and a miss in terms of impactful cold/winter weather.

Just feel like the positive PNA signal is going to be the fly in the ointment again and therfore keep the coldest weather east. Ensembles seem to align with that compared to their operationals

Yeah, I have no idea what is going on, this +PNA is the most stubborn in a while.

[Edwards Limestone]

We still have yet to have a freeze at my house since March 2024. My yellow roses are blooming like crazy. It was 85 down here yesterday.

I'll take anything we can get.

[losf1981]

Winter/fall weather has been depressing in WF so far, so I haven't really been on the site. What did I miss?!?!

Yeah it's pretty crazy how we haven't even had a flake yet(latest since I've been here to not see any)... I dunno about Sunday that far south(even here it's probably borderline) barring some crazy trends but hopefully next week will do something better. The +PNA is still hurting us a lot but it's still so far out and there will be 50 different model solutions im sure

Thanks for the feedback and info. I wasn't even really talking about snow, I'm talking cold weather at all. Some consistent cold below freezing temps for lows would be great to kill off some pollen.

[3090]

If I an understanding things currently it appears SETX and all along the northern gulf coast seam to be the prime targets for a major winter precip/storm event upcoming. Be it sleet, ice, snow or rain…etc., are all of the mentioned rolled up into one big giant mess, no?

[Tireman4]

Operationals continue to look interesting but ensembles (in particular latest 12z EPS) leave the door wide open for a swing and a miss in terms of impactful cold/winter weather.

Just feel like the positive PNA signal is going to be the fly in the ointment again and therfore keep the coldest weather east. Ensembles seem to align with that compared to their operationals

And there's the out. Winter Cancel!

Cat 5 in the Gulf!!!

[Brent]

Winter/fall weather has been depressing in WF so far, so I haven't really been on the site. What did I miss?!?!

Yeah it's pretty crazy how we haven't even had a flake yet(latest since I've been here to not see any)... I dunno about Sunday that far south(even here it's probably borderline) barring some crazy trends but hopefully next week will do something better. The +PNA is still hurting us a lot but it's still so far out and there will be 50 different model solutions im sure

Thanks for the feedback and info. I wasn't even really talking about snow, I'm talking cold weather at all. Some consistent cold below freezing temps for lows would be great to kill off some pollen.

Yeah I don't think we have to worry much there I see several days next week pretty cold. I doubt it'll be like 2021 but still

[wxman57]

I like how the ECMWF went from low to mid-40s here next Thu-Sat to upper 20s and 1-2 inches of freezing rain next Thu-Sat. Add on a 2-4 inches of snow in SE TX. Every run is different. It's best not to focus on any particular model run until MAYBE next Tuesday. Models won't handle this situation well until it's about 24 hours out. It does appear that a Canadian front will move through Texas by Sunday afternoon/evening. It also looks like there may be a low forming off the lower Texas coast next Wednesday. That would lead to widespread precip across central to south TX and south LA. What we don't know is what the air temperature will be at that time. Have to wait until early next week to be more confident in that.

Note that the EC ensembles are MUCH warmer than the operational. Lowest temp of 38 in Houston next week.

[Texas Snow]

Living in North Texas all my life, I hate coastal lows in this setup. Would be good for you south Texas folks if the cold air is deep enough.

[Brent]

The Weather Channel has me hitting 51 on Sunday ahead of the "storm"... Let's see how much they miss that by

[txwxwatcher]

I like how the ECMWF went from low to mid-40s here next Thu-Sat to upper 20s and 1-2 inches of freezing rain next Thu-Sat. Add on a 2-4 inches of snow in SE TX. Every run is different. It's best not to focus on any particular model run until MAYBE next Tuesday. Models won't handle this situation well until it's about 24 hours out. It does appear that a Canadian front will move through Texas by Sunday afternoon/evening. It also looks like there may be a low forming off the lower Texas coast next Wednesday. That would lead to widespread precip across central to south TX and south LA. What we don't know is what the air temperature will be at that time. Have to wait until early next week to be more confident in that.

Note that the EC ensembles are MUCH warmer than the operational. Lowest temp of 38 in Houston next week.

If those higher temps of 38 verified in Houston, could we still get some snow out of a cold core upper level low with this system, like we did in December 2008 when it was snowing and above freezing?

[txtwister78]

I like how the ECMWF went from low to mid-40s here next Thu-Sat to upper 20s and 1-2 inches of freezing rain next Thu-Sat. Add on a 2-4 inches of snow in SE TX. Every run is different. It's best not to focus on any particular model run until MAYBE next Tuesday. Models won't handle this situation well until it's about 24 hours out. It does appear that a Canadian front will move through Texas by Sunday afternoon/evening. It also looks like there may be a low forming off the lower Texas coast next Wednesday. That would lead to widespread precip across central to south TX and south LA. What we don't know is what the air temperature will be at that time. Have to wait until early next week to be more confident in that.

Note that the EC ensembles are MUCH warmer than the operational. Lowest temp of 38 in Houston next week.

Solid post. As others have mentioned, potential in the pattern exist for cold & winter weather however as I mentioned above the euro ensembles leave some doubt about how cold and what if any precip types could be in play.

Doesn't mean winter cancel by any stretch but it does stress the importance of not going all in on operationals this far out.

[Ralph's Weather]

we are just now getting into range of the meso models seeing the weekend storm hitting the NW. NAM is strongest with this Friday night. Not sure yet what impacts a tighter/stronger initial storm may have on future development as it moves inland.

[Ntxw]

Latest from the CPC (probability standpoint).

[Cpv17]

Latest from the CPC (probability standpoint).

https://i.imgur.com/84uvTu3.png

https://i.ibb.co/KNXCJpL/snow.png

They also have a good part of the state with above average precip.

[Ntxw]

While we wait for the next suite of snow roulette, second half January is starting to show up on the long range. Aleutian-Alaskan ridge and eastern US ridge (SE ridge?) is rearing it's head. The west and intermountain west will be cold once the PNA flips, once you get into MJO 1-2 and eventually 3 on the lower charts you flip things around. North Pacific will go from Nino look to Nina.



That will likely be peak winter for us in terms of cold into the Plains.

[Harp.1]

While we wait for the next suite of snow roulette, second half January is starting to show up on the long range. Aleutian-Alaskan ridge and eastern US ridge (SE ridge?) is rearing it's head. The west and intermountain west will be cold once the PNA flips, once you get into MJO 1-2 and eventually 3 on the lower charts you flip things around. North Pacific will go from Nino look to Nina. But we still have all of February to go…

https://i.imgur.com/ttBQTww.png

That will likely be peak winter for us in terms of cold into the Plains.

But we still have all of February to go….