Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 Thats stil a setup for very cold weather going into early february, think of this cold period that’s coming as a play , this is Act 1. We then have an intermission period ( brief thaw) before Act 2 comes with more cold, and thats the peak of our winter in early february

[Harp.1]

Harp.1 Thats stil a setup for very cold weather going into early february, think of this cold period that’s coming as a play , this is Act 1. We then have an intermission period ( brief thaw) before Act 2 comes with more cold, and thats the peak of our winter in early february

Gotcha. Thanks!

[Ntxw]

Harp.1 Thats stil a setup for very cold weather going into early february, think of this cold period that’s coming as a play , this is Act 1. We then have an intermission period ( brief thaw) before Act 2 comes with more cold, and thats the peak of our winter in early february

Hoping our northern gulf coast friends get snow/wintry precip out of this coming pattern. It's more likely that's their heart of winter, Feb isn't as active for them historically speaking. January is their part of winter.

[Brent]

Tulsa AFD... We don't even know what's going to happen Sunday up here yet so who knows beyond that

The cold front will usher in a much
colder polar airmass in its wake and wintry precipitation will be
possible as the system departs. Model profiles mostly show a quick
transition to snow with some freezing rain for a time Sunday
night. Again, there is still a lot of uncertainty in track and
timing with some solutions possibly having much more winter
impacts. Continue to check back for updates as we monitor the
trends and guidance come into better agreement.

[orangeblood]

Canadian Ensembles have now gone all in on the cold starting this weekend from Texas to the Southeast US thru end of week 2…10-20 F below normal for a ten day stretch is brutally cold. This model does have a cold bias but usually handle shallow arctic outbreaks much better than the other globals

[Ntxw]

I don't know what the model is on but 18z ICON has Brent's storm west of the baja .


18z


12z

[Ralph's Weather]

That's a wild shift by the ICON haha. For now I say toss out the outlier but who knows, ICON can be a good model at sniffing out things.

[Ntxw]

Yeah outlier for sure.

18z GFS not much change for the weekend system. 2nd system initially is looking more progressive.

[Stratton23]

Absolute dog crap GFS run

[Brent]

Good grief

I'm gonna be mad if this verifies and doesn't shift over us

[Ntxw]

Here comes huge TPV with another system beyond the 9th. I'm not sure the models have any clue how to piece this stuff together beyond 200 hours.

[Ntxw]

And this makes it even tougher. The AO nosedive. Think of it like a traffic jam, going along then all of a sudden the way is blocked...no idea how fast or slow or what lanes you need to take to get out. That's what the models are dealing with.

[Iceresistance]

Oh my


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXp0B.png


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXpCb.png

[Cpv17]

Oh my

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXp0B.png
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXp0B.png

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXpCb.png
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXpCb.png

Gonna be a long duration cold event, for sure.

[Iceresistance]

Well, the East Coast just got absolutely dumped and chilled on that 18z GFS

[orangeblood]

Well, the East Coast just got absolutely dumped and chilled on that 18z GFS

GFS and Euro keep going to the extremes every few runs, it’s usually a good indication a big weather event is coming. This run is showing the entire state of Tennessee below zero F, 45-55 F below normal

[Stratton23]

Even on the edge of the TPV, we still have highs below freezing across most of the state on that run, yes as much as id love that, id sure as heck wouldnt want to be directly under the TPV, thats some real day after tommorow like cold lol

[orangeblood]

Even on the edge of the TPV, we still have highs below freezing across most of the state on that run, yes as much as id love that, id sure as heck wouldnt want to be directly under the TPV, thats some real day after tommorow like cold lol

Unfortunately it looks like the Euro and GFS are picking up on the extreme solution…you can start to see the TPV organizing NW of Hudson Bay on both models now day 5-6.

[Stratton23]

orangeblood whats the furthest the vortex can shift back to the west west before shifting south and east eventually? It does seem like the TPV has been trending a little more west on some guidances today

[Harp.1]

Even on the edge of the TPV, we still have highs below freezing across most of the state on that run, yes as much as id love that, id sure as heck wouldnt want to be directly under the TPV, thats some real day after tommorow like cold lol

Unfortunately it looks like the Euro and GFS are picking up on the extreme solution…you can start to see the TPV organizing NW of Hudson Bay on both models now day 5-6.
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/namer/z500_anom/1735668000/1736186400-SjzSKDNAw4Q.png

What does this mean?