2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[AJC3]

For the upcoming year....

[Hurricanehink]

Can you believe [insert computer model] predicted [insert crazy weather event] accurately? After all those season cancel posts, we have a once in a generation event like this!

Posting for when this inevitably happens in 2025.

[FireRat]

Will be an interesting one to track! Happy New Year's Eve's Eve, y'all.

[Hurricane2022]

Happy New Year guys!!!

[Travorum]

Happy New Year guys!!!
https://imageshack.com/i/poYQXKE5p

GEFS has a notable but not huge number of members develop this. It's worth noting that the 06z GFS operational run is slower and to the east of most of the ensemble members. Euro ensembles have a much weaker signal but still have a few strong members.



Should something develop out of this and stay east of 115E, the potential ceiling would pretty much be off the charts. The ocean there is the warmest in the world right now, with spots >32C. Development is still a big if, but its definitely worth watching ensembles for any sort of east/west trend on track.

[StormWeather]

Don’t look at 18Z GFS run in the Australian Region…

[Travorum]

Yeah sure why not welcome back Olivia:



FWIW ensembles trended much weaker this run, hopefully that's a trend that continues.

[StormWeather]

Yeah sure why not welcome back Olivia:

https://i.imgur.com/bXKwcYZ.png

FWIW ensembles trended much weaker this run, hopefully that's a trend that continues.

2025 opening with a sub-900 mb storm? No thank you.

[Category5Kaiju]

Yeah sure why not welcome back Olivia:

https://i.imgur.com/bXKwcYZ.png

FWIW ensembles trended much weaker this run, hopefully that's a trend that continues.

2025 opening with a sub-900 mb storm? No thank you.

Australian Milton

[Hurricane2022]

Oh -censored-, here we go again!!


***06z run is more reasonable with a 924 mb peak for this system***

[kevin]

A very powerful European windstorm (extratropical cyclone) will impact Ireland on Friday. Éowyn, as the storm is called, could become one of the strongest storms to impact Ireland since reliable records started. I know it's not a TC, but this felt extraordinary enough to mention here. This morning's Euro run shows gusts up to 231 kmh (145 mph, 125 kt) over water & nearing 200 km/h (125 mph, 100 kt) at the coast and sustained wind speeds along the coast of 150 km/h (95 mph, 80 kt). Central pressure of Éowyn will probably be ~945 mb during landfall. Some Euro members show wind gusts as high as 230 km/h (145 mph, 125 kt) over land. The wind gust record for Ireland is 200 km/h (125 mph, 100 kt) so there's a reasonable chance that record will be broken.

Wind gusts





Mean wind speed

[kevin]

Based on this news article it seems hurricane Hunters from NOAA will fly into Eowyn tomorrow.

https://www.live95fm.ie/news/live95-news/hurricane-hunters-fly-into-shannon-airport-to-track-storm-eowyn/#:~:text='Hurricane%20Hunters'%20fly%20into%20Shannon%20Airport%20to%20track%20Storm%20%C3%89owyn,-All%20Live95%20News&text=A%20group%20of%20very%20skilled,and%20strength%20of%20Storm%20%C3%89owyn.

Eowyn will track slightly further north than previously thought. Ireland will still get hit directly, but the core might stay (partially) offshore which could also result in a much stronger storm once it reached Scotland. Either way, current forecasts (00z) for the different models below. A multiplication factor of 1.11 to go from the 10-minute sustained wind at the coast forecasts shown in the models to the 1-minute sustained wind normally used in the US. For open water the multiplication factor is 1.05. Note that, depending on the model, we're talking about a system with cat 1 to high-end cat 2 sustained winds at the coast. Extreme gusts are relatively common with European windstorms, but such high sustained winds are rare and I fear they will do a lot of damage.

Euro = 940 mb, 227 km/h (141 mph, 123 kt) gusts over water, 213 km/h (132 mph, 115 kt) gusts over land, 185 km/h (115 mph, 100 kt) sustained winds over water, 172 km/h (107 mph, 93 kt) sustained winds over land
GFS = 939 mb, 183 km/h (114 mph, 99 kt) gusts over water, 173 km/h (108 mph, 93 kt) gusts over land, 167 km/h (104 mph, 90 kt) sustained winds over water, 144 km/h (89 mph, 78 kt) sustained winds over land
ICON = 945 mb, 216 km/h (134 mph, 117 kt) gusts over water, 180 km/h (112 mph, 97 kt) gusts over land, 165 km/h (103 mph, 89 kt) sustained winds over water, 133 km/h sustained winds (83 mph, 72 kt) over land

[Hurricane2022]

I Love the GFS so much

[Hurricane2022]

?

[cycloneye]

AIFS becomes officially operational.

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1894416478675320901

[ChrisH-UK]

AIFS becomes officially operational.

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1894416478675320901

The AIFS models are here - AIFS - ECWMF Charts Catalogue

[cycloneye]

Is that low NE of Leewards something to watch for subtropical development or is nothingburger? Below GFS and Euro.

[ChrisH-UK]

Is that low NE of Leewards something to watch for subtropical development or is nothingburger? Below GFS and Euro.

https://i.imgur.com/d3ZQOKX.gif

https://i.imgur.com/j06Wsax.gif

The models are trying to spin something up in the medium term but it look like not much will happen.

[WaveBreaking]

Main models are still showing that subtropical system in <6 days. The CMC, ICON, and AI-Euro have it too.

[Dean_175]

Main models are still showing that subtropical system in <6 days. The CMC, ICON, and AI-Euro have it too.

https://i.imgur.com/gDCCq0L.gif
https://i.imgur.com/mjNOt6k.gif

Models are still showing it. There is a disturbance already visible on satellite. It looks like it will be "warm baroclinic" rather than a classifiable system. Its organization will result from upper level forcing(and some added convergence and easterly flow from the high to the north helping it wrap itself up) and is in a high shear environment near a jet stream. Reminds me a bit of the warm seclusion over the Atlantic a few weeks ago, but very different set of synoptic circumstances and at a lower latitude.

GFS shows a nice demonstration of the Fujiwara effect when it interacts with the system currently leaving the east coast of the US.