Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Stratton23]

Trends today look good, that Euro can go kick rocks, heck hellen keller can see arctic air better than that model can!

[Ntxw]

Remember, we’re in the medium range where the models lose the cold. Happens every time.

With all due respect it doesn’t happen every time, if seen many occasions in situations like this where the models slowly warm up run by run, as it gets in better range.

Yeah I'm really hoping Sunday can happen here. People said it would shift south so come on. We haven't had a good trend in 3 years

Because I have no confidence in that storm next week being their fwr north and I'm not gonna sit here and watch it go around us again

There is no guaranty it will shift south. Just in the past there are some big instances where it has, and there are instances where it hasn't. The moral of the story is, nothing is set in stone until under 3 days, and as you've said even less than that! Even with the miracle shift south storms those are still rare compared to the normal. I feel you though, set low expectations.

[Cpv17]

Also new PNA guidance has it never getting above 1 on the index. It actually has it curving back towards neutral mid month. I have a hard time believing a barely positive PNA is going to be able to drive Arctic air away from Texas. Feel like we go through this with every Arctic front these days.

Remember, we’re in the medium range where the models lose the cold. Happens every time.

With all due respect it doesn’t happen every time, if seen many occasions in situations like this where the models slowly warm up run by run, as it gets in better range.

Yeah, they warm up each run in the medium range, and slowly bring it back as we get in the short range, but usually never to the degree that they originally had it in the longer range.

[wxman22]

The 12Z Euro is dry like the Icon due to the shortwave being cutoff underneath the west coast ridge.

[Stratton23]

I dont buy the Euro run for several reasons . 1. It completely misses the cold air, 2. The shortwave retrograding west under the ridge is starting to look more unlikely. 3. Majority of guidance has at least a wide swath of precipitation across the state. Euro is on an island lol

[bubba hotep]

The Euro used to be biased toward digging energy into the SW, and the GFS was too progressive. You could blend the two. However, there have been so many upgrades over the past several years that it's hard to know where the models stand regarding bias.

[Ntxw]

I dont buy the Euro run for several reasons . 1. It completely misses the cold air, 2. The shortwave retrograding west under the ridge is starting to look more unlikely. 3. Majority of guidance has at least a wide swath of precipitation across the state. Euro is on an island lol

It has the ICON though and the other guidance to varying degrees have shown that to be a possibility here and there with their slop runs. We can't discount it, though I wouldn't favor it.

[Stratton23]

Ntwx oh no i agree its a possibility, but I think its on the lower end of possibilities, I just have trouble believing the Euro ( about cold not the shortwave ) mainly because of its history with doing extremely poor with handeling cold air masses, but also its ensemble is completely different from the operational run

[rwfromkansas]

Well, I am rather mystified about what to do with my Kansas family Christmas Saturday. We were heading up Friday, coming back Sunday before I go back to school for a teacher day Monday.

My hometown in KS is borderline between heavy snow and ice. If just snow, can deal with that as long as it's not as heavy as it was one Christmas going back. We had to literally stop and remove snow from the windshield it was so heavy. Never again. We came up for nothing since it was canceled after my brother almost died sliding on ice in KC on the bridge over the Missouri River (no injuries, just a close one).

It's not looking good since it may start as early as Saturday evening, but regardless, icy/snowy Sunday.

So frustrating. I want to see snow, why can't it come before? Or just be a quick overnight thing with only snow. What I'm worried about is the ice.

[bubba hotep]

It will be interesting to see what the 12z EPS shows, but the 00z did have a "Dry Texas" cluster. So, this run isn't totally out of left field.

[rwfromkansas]

Remember, we’re in the medium range where the models lose the cold. Happens every time.

With all due respect it doesn’t happen every time, if seen many occasions in situations like this where the models slowly warm up run by run, as it gets in better range.

Yeah I'm really hoping Sunday can happen here. People said it would shift south so come on. We haven't had a good trend in 3 years

Because I have no confidence in that storm next week being this far north and I'm not gonna sit here and watch it go around us again

I get it. It's shifting north at 12z from 0z even up in KS, which is making my travel decision-making harder. Now looks more icy than snowy. No way am I going up if we have to drive back in heavy ice on the road.

On another note, I am on another forum trying to read their MO/KS forum. Needless to say, this site is so much more thrilling to read.

Many more posts. Boring over there.

[txtwister78]

12z GEFS & and in particular EPS continue to place a good chunk of Texas on the western fringe the cold. Operationals look promising and perhaps there exist a window between the 7th -9th for some winter precip but after that I think the brunt of the cold shifts east. We shall see.

[Iceresistance]

The GFS caved to the Euro

[Brent]

I mean there has always been some dry ensembles everywhere I've looked even south and east of here so no snow isn't a completely insane idea but this is crazy

As if the winters haven't been bad enough already here. Yes I know it can snow in March and even April here but the idea of it happening again is just cruel

[Stratton23]

Iceresistance for the first system for sure, for the 2nd wave, definitely not though

[Sambucol2024]

Iceresistance for the first system for sure, for the 2nd wave, definitely not though

Isn’t the second wave that was showing snow for SETX?

[orangeblood]

It will be interesting to see what the 12z EPS shows, but the 00z did have a "Dry Texas" cluster. So, this run isn't totally out of left field.

Really dry on GEFS

[Wthrfan]

NWS and some other mets have been forecasting the brunt of the cold air to go east. We have all been hoping for something different.

[Stratton23]

We dont need the core of the cold air to come here, that would be a bad thing ( suppression) the air will still be cold enough that any shortwave that interacts with the cold air should be able to produce wintry precipitation, my thinking of the zone to watch for wintry precipitation would be from west texas- western side of houston, down to deep south texas, kind of lines up with noaas 8-14 day precipitation outlook if you think about it

[wxman22]

Yeah cold air doesn't seem to be an issue with this setup. It seems likely that the temps will be cold enough to support frozen precip for a large part of the state even if the brunt of the air goes east. The bigger question is how the shortwave behaves...