Texas Winter 2024-2025

[txtwister78]

Agree. It's not that we want an arctic blast direct because typically that does exactly what you describe in terms of suppression but also lowers your moisture levels significantly, however down here as we all know you need enough cold with the moisture all at the right time and so all those boxes have to be checked.

No question models are at least opening the door for the opportunity for a winter weather event but I still think temps are going to be borderline to where the disturbance (type/strength/timing) will matter the most in the end. Does that create enough of an upper level cold to give us snow or is it a cold rain, which by the way those are the best events anyway in terms of snowfall. Big burst of heavy wet snow.

And this may be a case where you in SC TX moderate to above freezing but us in N and NE TX stay in the mid to upper 20s. Up here I just don't see a moderation to the mid 30s until maybe Friday, Thu at earliest if system ejects earlier than expected.

We shall see.

[Stratton23]

Another stout - EPO ridge showing up in the long range on every ensemble , i cant remember the last time ivr seen ensembles keep a persistent- EPO ridge around this long, crazy times ahead folks!

[rwfromkansas]

So for KS, the NAM shows a lot less freezing rain. Is that more reliable than the Euro for that being more high-res?

[Ntxw]

Another stout - EPO ridge showing up in the long range on every ensemble , i cant remember the last time ivr seen ensembles keep a persistent- EPO ridge around this long, crazy times ahead folks!

Really strong signal PNA shift is going to occur later this month. It's the period between + and - that we may see a severe cold dump.

[Harp.1]

Another stout - EPO ridge showing up in the long range on every ensemble , i cant remember the last time ivr seen ensembles keep a persistent- EPO ridge around this long, crazy times ahead folks!

Are the ensembles still promising precip wise?

[wxman57]

I notice that the 12Z Euro is no longer keeping that cutoff low offshore Baja next week. It starts moving the low eastward and phases it with the trof across the central U.S. next week. It's slower than the other models, though. This would allow for more moisture and lift over Texas next Wed-Fri, and it's why the new EC predicts 3-4" of snow from near Abilene to south of the DFW area.

Reminder, the models may not come into good agreement on the upper air pattern until maybe Sunday. At that time, they will likely still not be in agreement on surface temps. It's just too far out.

[Ralph's Weather]

I notice that the 12Z Euro is no longer keeping that cutoff low offshore Baja next week. It starts moving the low eastward and phases it with the trof across the central U.S. next week. It's slower than the other models, though. This would allow for more moisture and lift over Texas next Wed-Fri, and it's why the new EC predicts 3-4" of snow from near Abilene to south of the DFW area.

Reminder, the models may not come into good agreement on the upper air pattern until maybe Sunday. At that time, they will likely still not be in agreement on surface temps. It's just too far out.

This, for now its all fun to watch but between now and the weekend its still just watching it. By Sunday we can start to see details. Its not until Monday that the system comes ashore the PNW. Does it dig off the coast of SoCal and risk not phasing well or does it dig into the Desert SW and phase earlier/stronger?

[Ntxw]

I notice that the 12Z Euro is no longer keeping that cutoff low offshore Baja next week. It starts moving the low eastward and phases it with the trof across the central U.S. next week. It's slower than the other models, though. This would allow for more moisture and lift over Texas next Wed-Fri, and it's why the new EC predicts 3-4" of snow from near Abilene to south of the DFW area.

Reminder, the models may not come into good agreement on the upper air pattern until maybe Sunday. At that time, they will likely still not be in agreement on surface temps. It's just too far out.

For the northern half of the state, generally, the operational guidance support a cold column. Surface as you mentioned varies per guidance. The southern half of the state the column is more variable depending on run and model. So the northern part of the state wants moisture, the southern part wants cold.

[iorange55]

https://i.ibb.co/TH0Mmkv/IMG-0084.png

https://i.ibb.co/W3ZYWNC/IMG-0085.png

Hope there is something to this. Not one local channel is advertising anything close to this. Perhaps they are being coy.
At work watching live reports from snowy upstate NY on the Weather Channel. Gorgeous snow falling

Fox 4 this morning said yeah it's winter. It's going to be seasonal this week. And I'm not seeing any moisture. Ask folks in Minnesota of 15F is cold.

So he is not impressed.

I hate this trend where local mets on TV feel the need to downplay every event because of a few hobbyists who go to extremes on the internet.

It results in two extremes, as opposed to an intelligent examination of all possibilities.

[rwfromkansas]

Hope there is something to this. Not one local channel is advertising anything close to this. Perhaps they are being coy.
At work watching live reports from snowy upstate NY on the Weather Channel. Gorgeous snow falling

Fox 4 this morning said yeah it's winter. It's going to be seasonal this week. And I'm not seeing any moisture. Ask folks in Minnesota of 15F is cold.

So he is not impressed.

I hate this trend where local mets on TV feel the need to downplay every event because of a few hobbyists who go to extremes on the internet.

It results in two extremes, as opposed to an intelligent examination of all possibilities.

Exactly. I have long been an Evan fan, but his hate on social media is getting ridiculous.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Fox 4 this morning said yeah it's winter. It's going to be seasonal this week. And I'm not seeing any moisture. Ask folks in Minnesota of 15F is cold.

So he is not impressed.

I hate this trend where local mets on TV feel the need to downplay every event because of a few hobbyists who go to extremes on the internet.

It results in two extremes, as opposed to an intelligent examination of all possibilities.

Exactly. I have long been an Evan fan, but his hate on social media is getting ridiculous.

Well I get his hate for social media. Outside of a couple of forums like this one, I do not participate on any of the big social media platforms (FB, X, Insta, etc). I don’t like being exposed to the village idiots who have a voice. It makes one lose faith in humanity, when you realize how stupid the average human is…

[HockeyTx82]

Fox 4 this morning said yeah it's winter. It's going to be seasonal this week. And I'm not seeing any moisture. Ask folks in Minnesota of 15F is cold.

So he is not impressed.

I hate this trend where local mets on TV feel the need to downplay every event because of a few hobbyists who go to extremes on the internet.

It results in two extremes, as opposed to an intelligent examination of all possibilities.

Exactly. I have long been an Evan fan, but his hate on social media is getting ridiculous.

Yep, my take is fine you know what, embrace the fact that people have access to do your job and then maybe use your platform as a TV meteorologist to educate folks and turn it in more to a science type lesson. Maybe cut back on the rest of the other crap the news spouts out that's meaningless to our local town.

What's the harm in showing models and explaining outcomes and how they work on the TV?

I mean if they feel threatened by a few enthusiasts who take away thier thunder then they need to move on.

I mean at this point Fox 4 has the news on for like half the day 4:30 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. and 4:00 p.m to darn near 10:30 p.m at night

[txtwister78]

I notice that the 12Z Euro is no longer keeping that cutoff low offshore Baja next week. It starts moving the low eastward and phases it with the trof across the central U.S. next week. It's slower than the other models, though. This would allow for more moisture and lift over Texas next Wed-Fri, and it's why the new EC predicts 3-4" of snow from near Abilene to south of the DFW area.

Reminder, the models may not come into good agreement on the upper air pattern until maybe Sunday. At that time, they will likely still not be in agreement on surface temps. It's just too far out.

For the northern half of the state, generally, the operational guidance support a cold column. Surface as you mentioned varies per guidance. The southern half of the state the column is more variable depending on run and model. So the northern part of the state wants moisture, the southern part wants cold.

100 right here. You can see where this goes down a few pathways with each having some risk/reward depending on how one views winter weather.

I think we all know below normal cold is coming relative to averages. That's a given at this point and that's been fairly clear for days. While I continue to believe this won't be historic or even significant cold compared to other events, down here all you need is enough arctic cold and that can still be impactful (wind chills etc) especially when you begin to add precip chances to it.

What we don't know is evolution of the disturbance and as usual across the south, the answer to that won't be decided until we get a system to sample and so that means more waiting. No need to get into all the details of what that could look like as others have done a great job of outlining and models have shown all three scenarios (dry, all liquid, frozen).

[A1A]

Oh good lord, this is within 10 days!

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXNeI.png
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXNeI.png

We could use the snow melt!!!

[bubba hotep]

Some nice changes on the 12z Euro EPS for DFW. Keep pumping those 2"+ members up!

[rwfromkansas]

I hate this trend where local mets on TV feel the need to downplay every event because of a few hobbyists who go to extremes on the internet.

It results in two extremes, as opposed to an intelligent examination of all possibilities.

Exactly. I have long been an Evan fan, but his hate on social media is getting ridiculous.

Yep, my take is fine you know what, embrace the fact that people have access to do your job and then maybe use your platform as a TV meteorologist to educate folks and turn it in more to a science type lesson. Maybe cut back on the rest of the other crap the news spouts out that's meaningless to our local town.

What's the harm in showing models and explaining outcomes and how they work on the TV?

I mean if they feel threatened by a few enthusiasts who take away thier thunder then they need to move on.

I mean at this point Fox 4 has the news on for like half the day 4:30 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. and 4:00 p.m to darn near 10:30 p.m at night

One thing I enjoyed growing up in Kansas is the mets on TV educated people. They would explain terms like radar-observed severe weather, the why behind winter weather etc. Here, they are more performers/entertainers.

[HockeyTx82]

Exactly. I have long been an Evan fan, but his hate on social media is getting ridiculous.

Yep, my take is fine you know what, embrace the fact that people have access to do your job and then maybe use your platform as a TV meteorologist to educate folks and turn it in more to a science type lesson. Maybe cut back on the rest of the other crap the news spouts out that's meaningless to our local town.

What's the harm in showing models and explaining outcomes and how they work on the TV?

I mean if they feel threatened by a few enthusiasts who take away thier thunder then they need to move on.

I mean at this point Fox 4 has the news on for like half the day 4:30 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. and 4:00 p.m to darn near 10:30 p.m at night

One thing I enjoyed growing up in Kansas is the mets on TV educated people. They would explain terms like radar-observed severe weather, the why behind winter weather etc. Here, they are more performers/entertainers.

Like our professional meteorologists who take their personal time to help educate us and add substance to this board.

That is what I really love about this board is the fact that we have access to them and they are willing to give us their time.

To my knowledge we have no TV meteorologist on here that I'm aware of.

[CaptinCrunch]

If you read the NWS FTW weekend forecast they have upped the timing of the frontal passage per say with the showers Saturday evening\ early Sunday morning. They are still holding to that high of 61 Sunday, but have dropped the low for Sunday night to 24, and Monday's high to 39. With that I expect the frontal passage to be early afternoon for DFW to be into the low\mid 20's by midnight.

[Brent]

That Winter Storm Watch for Kansas City mentions 13 inches possible already and we're still over 2 days away

[TropicalTundra]

What we know for certain is that there will absolutely be a storm system with plenty of moisture, whether it be frozen or a cold rain somehow.

What we don’t know is the exact storm track, since I’ve seen model runs with Brownsville getting hammered and others which bury the Metroplex and areas south of there.

Our first Hi-res runs that might be able to show this will come in tomorrow around this time or in the evening, so hopefully then we’ll have something to be excited about.