Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Brandon8181]

Portastorm weather center should be fully online by now.

[wxman22]

If the 18Z GFS verified that would be a record breaker winter storm.

[orangeblood]

LOL!!! Massive Winter Storm all the way to the East Coast

[HockeyTx82]

LOL!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_kuchera/1735840800/1736564400-WCkY51WU4Y0.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/sleet_total/1735840800/1736564400-nuNIvNitVdc.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/frzr_total/1735840800/1736564400-BfE2Uj0JCRk.png

I mean technically we're in the slight risk for heavy snow according to the climate Prediction Center.

So is it really that crazy?

[Brent]

I know this GFS run isn't correct.. it snows in Tulsa. I wasn't aware that was allowed this year

[JayDT]

I will more than gladly take this GFS run!

[cajungal]

And we just get a miserable cold rain in SE Louisiana

[Brandon8181]

LOL!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_kuchera/1735840800/1736564400-WCkY51WU4Y0.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/sleet_total/1735840800/1736564400-nuNIvNitVdc.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/frzr_total/1735840800/1736564400-BfE2Uj0JCRk.png

I mean technically we're in the slight risk for heavy snow according to the climate Prediction Center.

So is it really that crazy?

The crazy thing is that we have some additional model support, some run to run consistency, and that we are not necessarily in fantasy time anymore. All good news.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

GFS does the SA area dirty this time. Will gladly take snow over sleet & freezing rain. Hopefully the cold air comes a bit further south.

[Ralph's Weather]

That run would rival 2010 and 2021 for snow around here.

[Gotwood]

That run would rival 2010 and 2021 for snow around here.

I’ve been praying for it haven’t been able to take the family to Colorado the last two years so I’m itching for it lol.

[Ntxw]

This pattern is loaded though, as long as troughs continue to dig into the west, we will continue to have threats.

[cheezyWXguy]

That 18z GFS 500mb pattern is a thing of beauty and probably marks a best case scenario for winter storm in the northern half of the state. Slightly further south trajectory or slightly colder airmass would get more of the southern half involved. This is a good benchmark for comparing future runs to what you ideally want to see.

[HockeyTx82]

LOL!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_kuchera/1735840800/1736564400-WCkY51WU4Y0.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/sleet_total/1735840800/1736564400-nuNIvNitVdc.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/frzr_total/1735840800/1736564400-BfE2Uj0JCRk.png

I mean technically we're in the slight risk for heavy snow according to the climate Prediction Center.

So is it really that crazy?

The crazy thing is that we have some additional model support, some run to run consistency, and that we are not necessarily in fantasy time anymore. All good news.

Hey Admins, can we just lock the thread and then keep that model run as the last one so it actually happens?

[Iceresistance]

This pattern is loaded though, as long as troughs continue to dig into the west, we will continue to have threats.

And the cold keeps coming!


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXTTo.gif

[DW5522]

The Trend is your Friend!!

[snownado]

Even I'd be good with a Feburary 2011 redux (f*ck Feb. 2021!).

I know that's a long shot at best though.

[mmmmsnouts]

Yep, my take is fine you know what, embrace the fact that people have access to do your job and then maybe use your platform as a TV meteorologist to educate folks and turn it in more to a science type lesson. Maybe cut back on the rest of the other crap the news spouts out that's meaningless to our local town.

Live local weather is the only thing that still drives local news viewership - that’s why stations go absolutely over the top covering it. If people stop tuning in for that, there’s no reason for the broadcast to exist.

[HockeyTx82]

Yep, my take is fine you know what, embrace the fact that people have access to do your job and then maybe use your platform as a TV meteorologist to educate folks and turn it in more to a science type lesson. Maybe cut back on the rest of the other crap the news spouts out that's meaningless to our local town.

Live local weather is the only thing that still drives local news viewership - that’s why stations go absolutely over the top covering it. If people stop tuning in for that, there’s no reason for the broadcast to exist.

From what I've also read today they're the only ones who actually don't read a prompter the whole time so they're truly live and giving their actual opinion and words to everything they say.

But to my point make it more educational and informational as well as sensational.

[orangeblood]

That 18z GFS 500mb pattern is a thing of beauty and probably marks a best case scenario for winter storm in the northern half of the state. Slightly further south trajectory or slightly colder airmass would get more of the southern half involved. This is a good benchmark for comparing future runs to what you ideally want to see.

The ULL gets far enough south to tap into the STJ south of Baja (Pacific Moisture), you can see the PWAT value streams (grayish purple) on this map coming in from Baja across Mexico into Texas....too far north, it can't tap into it, too far south it'll get cut off from the Main Jet/slow down and erode the Arctic Air away. Thread the needle situation, is why these events are so rare around here