Texas Winter 2024-2025

[orangeblood]

18Z Euro ENS also trending towards GFS, away from the cutoff solution/much more connected to the Main Jet. Expecting tonight’s Ops to follow the same trend.

[rwfromkansas]

Well, we are postponing my family Christmas to later in January unless the KS storm fizzles or moves to NE by noon tomorrow.

I am excited about the runs showing snow for DFW by next Thursday, but it's a week. MANY, if not most, of the time, runs change dramatically at this point north or south. DFW could just get rain and OK gets the snow, or it could go south.

[TropicalTundra]

If Brent doesn’t get snow next week, at least he’ll get some from the Kansas storm on Sunday

[rwfromkansas]

need to see the Ensembles begin trending towards the this 500 mb look and confidence will sky rocket

Latest SPIRE model trending towards GFS Op. It's been stuck with the cutoff solution and now going with the GFS look

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/spire-forecast-basic/namer/z500_anom/1735819200/1736424000-xSnpQWGSd5A.png

Does SPIRE model have precip and snowfall or is that not an option?

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/spire-forecast-basic/conus/instant_ptype/1735819200/1736467200-k2EnwWifP5E.png

Never heard of SPIRE. It reliable?

[Brent]

If Brent doesn’t get snow next week, at least he’ll get some from the Kansas storm on Sunday

Lol I kind of want to drive to Missouri tbh talking about near blizzard conditions north of Kansas City

I doubt Tulsa gets anything more than a few flakes

But hopefully that storm is a setup for the one further south

[Ntxw]

If Brent doesn’t get snow next week, at least he’ll get some from the Kansas storm on Sunday

Lol I kind of want to drive to Missouri tbh talking about near blizzard conditions north of Kansas City

I doubt Tulsa gets anything more than a few flakes

But hopefully that storm is a setup for the one further south

Honestly I would make the drive if it's not a hassle. Could be some pretty heavy totals up there.

[rwfromkansas]

If Brent doesn’t get snow next week, at least he’ll get some from the Kansas storm on Sunday

Lol I kind of want to drive to Missouri tbh talking about near blizzard conditions north of Kansas City

I doubt Tulsa gets anything more than a few flakes

But hopefully that storm is a setup for the one further south

If it were me, and it was that close, I would drive after two years. Lol. The only reason I am not going to Kansas for the Christmas we had for this weekend was we have to get back Sunday, and that's the core of the storm. Too much ice possibly pre-snow.

[gpsnowman]

If Brent doesn’t get snow next week, at least he’ll get some from the Kansas storm on Sunday

Lol I kind of want to drive to Missouri tbh talking about near blizzard conditions north of Kansas City

I doubt Tulsa gets anything more than a few flakes

But hopefully that storm is a setup for the one further south

Patience my friend. KC might have good snow or it may not. Nothing wrong with Oklahoma snow. Sometimes waiting for snow in your own town is the best way to go.

[snowballzzz]

If Brent doesn’t get snow next week, at least he’ll get some from the Kansas storm on Sunday

Lol I kind of want to drive to Missouri tbh talking about near blizzard conditions north of Kansas City

I doubt Tulsa gets anything more than a few flakes

But hopefully that storm is a setup for the one further south

Patience my friend. KC might have good snow or it may not. Nothing wrong with Oklahoma snow. Sometimes waiting for snow in your own town is the best way to go. Long distance snow relationships have drawbacks. Distance, fatigue, weariness, gas money, and overall low s. How about a local church snow, bar snow, or even a snow escort at home. Tulsa snow is just as good as anyone else's. You just gotta be patient and wait for the right moment to strike.

Very true! I lived in South Dakota for a year back in 2019 and the snow there and in Wyoming (I was in the black hills right on the SD/WY border) just wasn’t the same as getting it back home in Texas. These next few weeks look interesting and we still have a lot of winter to go.

[rwfromkansas]

If Brent doesn’t get snow next week, at least he’ll get some from the Kansas storm on Sunday

Lol I kind of want to drive to Missouri tbh talking about near blizzard conditions north of Kansas City

I doubt Tulsa gets anything more than a few flakes

But hopefully that storm is a setup for the one further south

Patience my friend. KC might have good snow or it may not. Nothing wrong with Oklahoma snow. Sometimes waiting for snow in your own town is the best way to go. Long distance snow relationships have drawbacks. Distance, fatigue, weariness, gas money, and overall low s. How about a local church snow, bar snow, or even a snow escort at home. Tulsa snow is just as good as anyone else's. You just gotta be patient and wait for the right moment to strike.

Or get your own home snowmachine. They aren't too expensive, and plenty of options out there. Lol. I would if I wouldn't tick off my neighbors in our DFW suburban tiny lots.

[rwfromkansas]

With the ensemble support...my interest in Thursday is increasing. Time to start model obsession.

[Brandon8181]

Please help me to understand....

So in viewing the NWS forecast for Dallas on Thursday it has bright and sunny with a high of 50 degrees. I read the last Area forecast discussion, but I still just don't understand this forecast.

Not to even mention a slight chance of Snow/Sleet at this point?

[HockeyTx82]

Please help me to understand....

So in viewing the NWS forecast for Dallas on Thursday it has bright and sunny with a high of 50 degrees. I read the last Area forecast discussion, but I still just don't understand this forecast.

Not to even mention a slight chance of Snow/Sleet at this point?

I'm not the expert and somebody else will probably add, but they manually do all those forecasts versus a computer outputting it, so it takes time for them to update everything. Right now that's just the safe forecast because that's the typical day that we would most likely have this far out.

[Brandon8181]

Please help me to understand....

So in viewing the NWS forecast for Dallas on Thursday it has bright and sunny with a high of 50 degrees. I read the last Area forecast discussion, but I still just don't understand this forecast.

Not to even mention a slight chance of Snow/Sleet at this point?

I'm not the expert and somebody else will probably add, but they manually do all those forecasts versus a computer outputting it, so it takes time for them to update everything. Right now that's just the safe forecast because that's the typical day that we would most likely have this far out.

I get that. I really do. Obviously, them sounded the alarm vs our chatter here is completely different. I just, feel like at this time atleast a Rain/Snow mix picture with highs in the 40's is appropriate for Thursday. 10%

It just seems like the confidence would be enough for a mention.

[Gotwood]

Please help me to understand....

So in viewing the NWS forecast for Dallas on Thursday it has bright and sunny with a high of 50 degrees. I read the last Area forecast discussion, but I still just don't understand this forecast.

Not to even mention a slight chance of Snow/Sleet at this point?

I'm not the expert and somebody else will probably add, but they manually do all those forecasts versus a computer outputting it, so it takes time for them to update everything. Right now that's just the safe forecast because that's the typical day that we would most likely have this far out.

I get that. I really do. Obviously, them sounded the alarm vs our chatter here is completely different. I just, feel like at this time atleast a Rain/Snow mix picture with highs in the 40's is appropriate for Thursday. 10%

It just seems like the confidence would be enough for a mention.

It’s a common theme if I remember correctly they had highs in the 40s less than a week out of the Feb 21 outbreak.

[Iceresistance]

Does SPIRE model have precip and snowfall or is that not an option?

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/spire-forecast-basic/conus/instant_ptype/1735819200/1736467200-k2EnwWifP5E.png

Never heard of SPIRE. It reliable?

I have never heard of it either, might be a new model

[WacoWx]

Snow showing up on my iPhone weather app for next Thursday and Friday in Dallas! 35-45%

[Ntxw]

Please help me to understand....

So in viewing the NWS forecast for Dallas on Thursday it has bright and sunny with a high of 50 degrees. I read the last Area forecast discussion, but I still just don't understand this forecast.

Not to even mention a slight chance of Snow/Sleet at this point?

I'm not the expert and somebody else will probably add, but they manually do all those forecasts versus a computer outputting it, so it takes time for them to update everything. Right now that's just the safe forecast because that's the typical day that we would most likely have this far out.

I get that. I really do. Obviously, them sounded the alarm vs our chatter here is completely different. I just, feel like at this time atleast a Rain/Snow mix picture with highs in the 40's is appropriate for Thursday. 10%

It just seems like the confidence would be enough for a mention.

Not 100% certain but over the years I have noticed they often follow MOS statistical guidance in their forecasts. It's a statistical approach rather than purely dynamical/NWP model forecasts, what you and I are used to seeing. It has climo involved a lot and they adjust subtly. If you ever heard of 'stat' method from Steve McCauley it's a similar approach. From a NWS forecasting perspective it's very much about probability rather than possibility all the time.

[Brandon8181]

I'm not the expert and somebody else will probably add, but they manually do all those forecasts versus a computer outputting it, so it takes time for them to update everything. Right now that's just the safe forecast because that's the typical day that we would most likely have this far out.

I get that. I really do. Obviously, them sounded the alarm vs our chatter here is completely different. I just, feel like at this time atleast a Rain/Snow mix picture with highs in the 40's is appropriate for Thursday. 10%

It just seems like the confidence would be enough for a mention.

Not 100% certain but over the years I have noticed they often follow MOS statistical guidance in their forecasts. It's a statistical approach rather than purely dynamical/NWP model forecasts, what you and I are used to seeing. It has climo involved a lot and they adjust subtly. If you ever heard of 'stat' method from Steve McCauley it's a similar approach.

Interesting. I don't know if I completely agree with that, but there is a reason I'm on this side of the computer too. lol

Of course, also it is easy to be the Monday morning quarterback.

[Brandon8181]

Snow showing up on my iPhone weather app for next Thursday and Friday in Dallas! 35-45%

Interesting. I just looked at mine and it is showing 35% and 50%. That seems encouraging. I'm sure there is alot of computer generation in the weather app though.