Texas Winter 2024-2025

[DW5522]

Steve McCauley finally chimes in on Fb. It’s long and vague, nothing we don’t already know.

[Ntxw]

Harp.1 several days ago yep, but the Euro is absolutely worthless at seeing cold air, anything else its decent with, cold air it sucks

It has plenty of moisture for everyone, but also everyone is chasing cold. Looks similar to 12z Euro. 850s are cold enough roughly from a Del Rio-Waco-Shreveport and north line but surface is about 10F+ warmer than the other models.

[Stratton23]

GEPS mean snowfall is crazy, you rarely see that aggressive of a snowfall signal in central-se texas

[Quixotic]

Harp.1 several days ago yep, but the Euro is absolutely worthless at seeing cold air, anything else its decent with, cold air it sucks

It has plenty of moisture for everyone, but also everyone is chasing cold. Looks similar to 12z Euro. 850s are cold enough roughly from a Del Rio-Waco-Shreveport and north line but surface is about 10F+ warmer than the other models.

Underestimating shallow cold, perhaps? The change of timing sped up so it might be getting a handle on the edge of the cold front.

[txtwister78]

Harp.1 several days ago yep, but the Euro is absolutely worthless at seeing cold air, anything else its decent with, cold air it sucks

I also think it's important to acknowledge that all models have definitely trended a little "warmer" next wk than what they were showing just a few days ago.

I personally think this arctic outbreak is looking less impressive with every run for the plains down into Texas next week of which I mentioned earlier today.

Doesn't mean this will turn into a nothing burger but the core of the cold continues to be shunted east via most ensembles and now some operationals like Euro are beginning to align with that and so again while we're certainly going to be below normal relative to averages next wk, this continues to look borderline. But we wait

[Ntxw]

Harp.1 several days ago yep, but the Euro is absolutely worthless at seeing cold air, anything else its decent with, cold air it sucks

It has plenty of moisture for everyone, but also everyone is chasing cold. Looks similar to 12z Euro. 850s are cold enough roughly from a Del Rio-Waco-Shreveport and north line but surface is about 10F+ warmer than the other models.

Underestimating shallow cold, perhaps? The change of timing sped up so it might be getting a handle on the edge of the cold front.

Could be. There are two different reasons from an upper level standpoint why we have two camps. The ICON and CMC are painting a weaker disturbance, alongside much colder western Great Lakes trough coming down. GFS and Euro are much stronger storm in the southwest that pumps up SW flow, copious moisture which is pumping warm air. GFS is the goldilocks (depending on your location preference, obviously you want the much colder solution if you're southern half of the state), Euro really cranks up the SW flow and erodes with little CAA.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Canadian is like ICON, plenty of snow for central, south central, and SE Texas.

HUGE difference between ICON/Canadian and GFS for the DFW area, what feature are they differing on that's got such a discrepancy?

[Ivanhater]

06Z is bad for everyone

[HockeyTx82]

06Z is bad for everyone

Oh my, well that's a Winter Cancel run.

How can it go from 12in to almost 24in to, nah just playing no winter weather for anyone in Texas.

To add, temperature wise, those fronts never even show up anymore....

I sure hope it's just something it drank and it will get itself straightened out by next run.

[Gotwood]

06Z is bad for everyone

Oh my, well that's a Winter Cancel run.

How can it go from 12in to almost 24in to, nah just playing no winter weather for anyone in Texas.

To add, temperature wise, those fronts never even show up anymore....

I sure hope it's just something it drank and it will get itself straightened out by next run.

Snow actually increased on the GEFS. Wouldn’t put much stock in the Op run. ICON looked better with more snow snowing up north before the run ended.

[HockeyTx82]

From the FWD NWS this moring.......

Full is here https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

In regards to wintry precipitation next week, the forecast becomes
quite a bit more challenging. However, there is high confidence
that our region will remain dry through at least Tuesday night.
Looking ahead, long-range ensemble and deterministic guidance
continue to suggest an impressive upper-level low will dip south
toward Baja California early Wednesday. There is considerable
variability amongst the most recent suite of guidance in the
timing, strength, and position of this system beyond Wednesday (we
are still at least 6-7 days away from this potential event, so
expect changes to the forecast!)

We understand that there are many, many social media posts making
their way around the Internet at the moment showing big snowfall
totals over North and Central Texas next week. REMEMBER, what is
being shared is a single run from one single deterministic model.
That is only a small part of the story, whereas there are nearly a
100 other GEFS, GEPS, and ENS ensemble members to view to make a
full, comprehensive forecast. It is important that you follow
trusted weather sources for winter weather information and not
engagement trolls looking for clicks and likes!

Now, what can we parse out from the current data available to us?

1. Timing: Wednesday morning through Friday morning will contain
the best potential for measurable wintry precipitation in our
region. More specific timing will be hashed out in the coming days
as we get closer to the event.

2. Will it Even Happen?: The potential for measurable snowfall in
Central Texas has trended a bit higher since the previous forecast
with 40-50% of GEFS, EPS, GEPS highlighting at least measurable
snowfall (>0.1") mid- to late next week. North Texas has
maintained around 20-30% of members. Central Texas is slightly
favored for wintry weather due to the track of the low laid out by
current long-range guidance. The potential for more impactful
wintry weather has increased slightly across Central Texas as well
with roughly 30% of ensemble members highlighting the potential
for greater than an inch of snowfall. Chances for impacts due to
winter weather still remain quite low over North Texas at ~10%.

So yes, winter weather is possible next week. But, it is even more
possible that we see nothing. The best thing to do at this moment
is to prepare for the cold and keep up to date with the forecast
as you can expect us to get more specific and detailed over the
coming days.

Langfeld

[Harp.1]

One bad op run and it’s winter cancel? C’mon guys…

[gpsnowman]

Wow woke up to 5 new pages. Things still look cold with potential. This seems different in that a large portion of the state has had some model fun the last couple days no matter where the compass points. Somewhere will cash in. We wait for an arctic blast later in winter, the next 10 days or so look increasingly moist and slightly colder. Hopefully the jigsaw puzzle all locks in place for snow.

[cajungal]

Everyone was very excited after the ICON last night. Then GFS and Euro ran and it was like game over

[HockeyTx82]

One bad op run and it’s winter cancel? C’mon guys…

I'm just an internet troll looking for clicks and likes.

[WinterMax]

I guess we could just become transfixed on the Canadian models cold bias for a couple of months.

[wxman57]

I like the last two GFS runs. Somewhere between a foot of snow near DFW and zero snow next week. Ha! Meanwhile, the Canadian model (blue lines) not only sucks at hurricane forecasting, it's terrible for low temps in winter. It has Houston down to 5F next Saturday (LCH 4F). Also, 7-8 inches of snow in SW Houston. It does this with every strong cold front. Did it in 2021, did it last January. Always forecasts single digits, which turns out to be about 20-25 degrees too cold.

Each model handles the 500mb pattern next week differently. Therefore, we really don't know what will happen yet. I like that Fort Worth NWS discussion concerning the uncertainty. Maybe the models will come into at least some agreement by Sunday or Monday. Maybe...

P.S. I changed the links on my avatar and images to start with "https//" vs. "http". That will make them show up. Your browser may ask if you want to accept the risk of viewing my images. There's no risk. Really! Trust me!

http://www.wxman57.com/images/00Z03JanHOU.jpg

[Ralph's Weather]

This morning's show the SW trough mostly missing the phase with the PV. That would mean no snow. It is something to watch as it is how this storm can bust.

[starsfan65]

This morning's show the SW trough mostly missing the phase with the PV. That would mean no snow. It is something to watch as it is how this storm can bust.

Is it true?

[wxman22]

For those in Northwest Texas some models have been trending with more snow when the secondary surge of arctic air arrives on Tuesday/Wednesday. And it’s now showing up within 120 hours.