txtwister78 wrote:GFS has highs in the plains Wednesday afternoon folks in the 30's. Where's the true arctic air? It's hung up in Ontario but that's not going to get it done here. Not enough cold this go around. Highs in the 40's in the panhandle and into Oklahoma Thursday as the system ejects out with mid to low 30's across the Hill Country. Borderline is an understatement.
It's there and headed south. Temps are 35-45 F below normal in our source region with 1048 Arctic HP in southern Canada with another one right on its heels in the Yukon. How many times have we seen Models overestimate modifying temps too quickly ? It happens almost every single arctic outbreak without fail. It's the coldest time of year climatologically with a fresh snowpack underneath the Arctic HP - I believe it's more logical to lean towards the colder side of guidance and not verbatim model output

