Texas Winter 2024-2025

Winter Weather Discussion

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2221 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jan 03, 2025 10:32 pm

Ntxw wrote:0z ICON is going to phase.

And it's dumping snow over Texas
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2222 Postby wxman22 » Fri Jan 03, 2025 10:33 pm

Yep

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Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2223 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 03, 2025 10:35 pm

DFW and much of W-Texas goes below freezing Sunday night and outside of a brief period Tuesday afternoon barely to freezing, it's below freezing through Friday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2224 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Jan 03, 2025 10:37 pm

Ntxw wrote:DFW and much of W-Texas goes below freezing Sunday night and outside of a brief period Tuesday afternoon barely to freezing, it's below freezing through Friday.

Secondary HP surge?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2225 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jan 03, 2025 10:37 pm

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2226 Postby wxman22 » Fri Jan 03, 2025 10:37 pm

:D

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2227 Postby Gotwood » Fri Jan 03, 2025 10:38 pm

Ntxw wrote:DFW and much of W-Texas goes below freezing Sunday night and outside of a brief period Tuesday afternoon barely to freezing, it's below freezing through Friday.

This should be the expectation.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2228 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 03, 2025 10:38 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
Ntxw wrote:DFW and much of W-Texas goes below freezing Sunday night and outside of a brief period Tuesday afternoon barely to freezing, it's below freezing through Friday.

Secondary HP surge?


Yeah, the Great Lakes trough separation on this run allowing the push of cold behind to come in.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2229 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jan 03, 2025 10:43 pm


That 20 inch bullseye over Llano, TX
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

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Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2230 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Jan 03, 2025 10:43 pm


I'll take my 5.6 incher and call it a day
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2231 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 03, 2025 10:45 pm

gpsnowman wrote:

I'll take my 5.6 incher and call it a day


It's the first ICON run to give us meaningful snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2232 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Jan 03, 2025 10:46 pm

I have a gut feeing tonights global runs are going to be alot better
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2233 Postby Gotwood » Fri Jan 03, 2025 10:47 pm

The observed PNA has it barely positive almost neutral today. AO plunging Negative. Don’t see how we don’t get some sustained cold out of this. Add in the coming cloud cover and I just don’t see it warming up all that much next week.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2234 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Jan 03, 2025 10:47 pm

Ntxw wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:

I'll take my 5.6 incher and call it a day


It's the first ICON run to give us meaningful snow.

German engineering
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2235 Postby sphelps8681 » Fri Jan 03, 2025 10:48 pm

Ya'll need to speak English. What the heck is phased? There are novices on her but all I here is blah, blah, blah. Have no clue what you are talking about. LOL. Maybe just me but it is a struggle. One last thing. If you are talking about what you saw on a model can you post the pic so I can kinda see what you are talking about. Love ya'll and thanks. Been here for 18 years and still will always come back and check for the weather. Even if I don't know what you are saying.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2236 Postby orangeblood » Fri Jan 03, 2025 10:48 pm

Ntxw wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:
Ntxw wrote:DFW and much of W-Texas goes below freezing Sunday night and outside of a brief period Tuesday afternoon barely to freezing, it's below freezing through Friday.

Secondary HP surge?


Yeah, the Great Lakes trough separation on this run allowing the push of cold behind to come in.


Very similar to the 18Z Euro, if the GFS begins the same trend let the games begin!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2237 Postby SnowintheFalls » Fri Jan 03, 2025 10:51 pm

ICON hits DFW but slides in just south of Wichita Falls. Intersted to see how vastly different the GFS and Euro will be.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2238 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Jan 03, 2025 10:52 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:Secondary HP surge?


Yeah, the Great Lakes trough separation on this run allowing the push of cold behind to come in.


Very similar to the 18Z Euro, if the GFS begins the same trend let the games begin!!


It just seems like a cutoff in the SW will either kick out or retrograde out over the Pacific. I just don't remember many that stalled in Northern Baja.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2239 Postby orangeblood » Fri Jan 03, 2025 10:56 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Yeah, the Great Lakes trough separation on this run allowing the push of cold behind to come in.


Very similar to the 18Z Euro, if the GFS begins the same trend let the games begin!!


It just seems like a cutoff in the SW will either kick out or retrograde out over the Pacific. I just don't remember many that stalled in Northern Baja.


I remember over a few over the years but they are really rare. More often you’ll see one off the coast of So Cal, pops the eastern pacific ridge and stalls underneath but this orientation being depicted by some of the runs just doesn’t look right. If you do get one over Baja, you usually get a massive Rockies ridge above it
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2240 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:02 pm

Many of you are talking of losing the cold air etc. Well, the cut off low or whatever we may call it has alot to do with pulling the cold air down. If it spins off into the Baja, the cold air would shunt east, leaving us with little cold air, if its phased with the main jet stream, then it has the ability to pull much more cold air straight down into the plains.
I've seen scenarios of that here in Denver. When a strong ULL spins down through NV/UT region and settles near Las Vegas, if it is partially phased with the jet stream, it will bring cold air down from Canada and can give us cold air and very heavy snow (northeast wind).

Also, In Feb '21, shortwaves coming down through the Rockies had alot to do with pulling the coldest air away from the PV near Minn down into the plains.
Last edited by TeamPlayersBlue on Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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