Texas Winter 2024-2025

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gpsnowman
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2241 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:04 pm

Regarding the cold front Sunday, we are expected to have almost a 40 degree drop in 24 hours with wind chills in the low teens Monday morning. Shock to the system.
Also Fox 4 mentions wintry mix on Friday
Last edited by gpsnowman on Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2242 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:05 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Many of you are talking of losing the cold air etc. Well, the cut off low or whatever we may call it has alot to do with pulling the cold air down. If it spins off into the Baja, the cold air would shunt east, leaving is with little cold air, if its phased with the main jet stream, then it has the ability to pull much more cold air straight down into the plains.
I've seen scenarios of that here in Denver. When a strong ULL spins down through NV/UT region and settles near Las Vegas, if it is partially phased with the jet stream, it will bring cold air down from Canada and can give us cold air and very heavy snow (northeast wind).

Also, In Feb '21, shortwaves coming down through the Rockies had alot to do with pulling the coldest air away from the PV near Minn down into the plains.


Pretty good description here. A phase is a perfect balance between the two jet streams (polar and subtropical in this case) coming together to make a stronger, more potent event. One or the other alone creates different, often unwanted results. You need cold to come down at the same time some warm air to come up and meet at the right place in harmony.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2243 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:13 pm

Ntxw wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Many of you are talking of losing the cold air etc. Well, the cut off low or whatever we may call it has alot to do with pulling the cold air down. If it spins off into the Baja, the cold air would shunt east, leaving is with little cold air, if its phased with the main jet stream, then it has the ability to pull much more cold air straight down into the plains.
I've seen scenarios of that here in Denver. When a strong ULL spins down through NV/UT region and settles near Las Vegas, if it is partially phased with the jet stream, it will bring cold air down from Canada and can give us cold air and very heavy snow (northeast wind).

Also, In Feb '21, shortwaves coming down through the Rockies had alot to do with pulling the coldest air away from the PV near Minn down into the plains.


Pretty good description here. A phase is a perfect balance between the two jet streams (polar and subtropical in this case) coming together to make a stronger, more potent event. One or the other alone creates different, often unwanted results. You need cold to come down at the same time some warm air to come up and meet at the right place in harmony.


Exactly. One of the GFS runs i remember had a very strong ULL that was phasing with the jet stream and it was showing huge totals. Perfect for cold air, cold air in the upper levels, moisture, lift, etc.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2244 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:15 pm

In the GFS run, I'm noticing the ridge in NW Canada is getting stronger. If that were to connect with the Greenland block, we would have a completely different level of winter weather in the lower 48.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2245 Postby orangeblood » Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:15 pm

GFS looking much better at 5h, here is the run to run change. Can see the Lower heights across the southern plains with the polar jet S/W coming thru Wyoming to phase the two
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2246 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:17 pm

GFS phases, very close but does.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2247 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:19 pm

It's a big run for the HC to North Texas and Northeast Texas in marginal temps.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2248 Postby JDawg512 » Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:20 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
Given the developing drought conditions here and Nina ... and watching system after system this past autumn underperform in the QPF department, I'm very skeptical of these amounts.


Yeah I agree although we really haven't had a system out of the SW like this (at least modeled) for quite some time. Most of our misses have been systems that miss us well to the north (cutters) or too flat. At least that's a different signal for the time being.


This. Can I just say, frozen precipitation or not, how nice it is to see a cut off low over Mexico modeled in the not too distant future. I honestly don't remember the last time we saw one...it's been way too long! We could really use a widespread heavy rain event in central Texas.


I agree 100%. Rain and lots of it is what I want to see.. Not too much all at once mind you, but we need a good long deep soaking rain.
Last edited by JDawg512 on Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2249 Postby wxman22 » Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:20 pm

The 0z GFS
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2250 Postby wxman22 » Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:23 pm

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2251 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:24 pm

Ntxw wrote:It's a big run for the HC to North Texas and Northeast Texas in marginal temps.


HC?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2252 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:25 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:
Ntxw wrote:It's a big run for the HC to North Texas and Northeast Texas in marginal temps.


HC?


Hill country
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2253 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:26 pm

Canadian is going to phase. It's also stupid cold Thursday morning which I don't believe.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2254 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:27 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:HRRR has 20 inches here Sunday :double: :eek: this could be the worst snowstorm on record in Kansas City


Enjoy it Brent!


Ira gonna be interesting because the news is like 12 tops and around the metro it's like no worse than 8-10... Somebody gonna be wrong :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2255 Postby wxman22 » Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:27 pm

Looks like the Canadian finally got onboard. It's about time LOL. Good trends so far tonight.

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Last edited by wxman22 on Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2256 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:28 pm

Ntxw wrote:Canadian is going to phase. It's also stupid cold Thursday morning which I don't believe.

The Euro later needs to just go ahead and bring home the bacon.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2257 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:28 pm

Ugly ice storm for se texas on the CMC
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2258 Postby JayDT » Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:29 pm

Definitely liking the model runs and trend so far tonight.. :wink: Just trying my best to stay sane through this whole rollercoaster ride :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2259 Postby orangeblood » Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:29 pm

Ntxw wrote:Canadian is going to phase. It's also stupid cold Thursday morning which I don't believe.


Overall looks much better and similar to other globals now. However, it’s QPF depiction is really flawed…

TV Mets and the NWS offices should start to become a little more vocal about the potential of this one
Last edited by orangeblood on Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2260 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Jan 03, 2025 11:30 pm

Brent wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:HRRR has 20 inches here Sunday :double: :eek: this could be the worst snowstorm on record in Kansas City


Enjoy it Brent!


Ira gonna be interesting because the news is like 12 tops and around the metro it's like no worse than 8-10... Somebody gonna be wrong :lol:


Wichita stations show up to 16 in spots along I-70. Would be the biggest storm in a decade easily.
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