Texas Winter 2024-2025

[txtwister78]

GEFS at hour 180 and low still stuck over Baja...lol

[orangeblood]

the GEFS will correct back

Problem with that is the closer you get the less variability you're going to get from an ensemble. Trends with that output either way telegraph what the operational is going to eventually arrive at. GEFS continues to signal a cutoff low and it meanders/stalls over the baja region. No phasing.

That’s not necessarily true, the Operationals are the Operationals for a reason….they are the most accurate over time. IMO this is the time frame, around 120 hours, to begin putting more weight into the Ops over the Ens

But yes, I agree that the large discrepancy b/w the Op and GEFS mean is concerning

[txtwister78]

the GEFS will correct back

Problem with that is the closer you get the less variability you're going to get from an ensemble. Trends with that output either way telegraph what the operational is going to eventually arrive at. GEFS continues to signal a cutoff low and it meanders/stalls over the baja region. No phasing.

That’s not necessarily true, the Operationals are the Operationals for a reason….they are the most accurate over time. IMO this is the time frame, around 120 hours, to begin putting more weight into the Ops over the Ens

But yes, I agree that the large discrepancy b/w the Op and GEFS mean is concerning

Yeah pretty large discrepancy right now. And my point was the closer you get to the target period we're all looking at, the more consensus you would like to see coming from an ensemble in terms of the mean output. Yes, ensembles are always going to have some variability out of a bunch of members. That's obviously the point, but as you point out, the degree of separation isn't what you want to see at this stage.

[orangeblood]

0Z Euro phasing, going back to the big storm it showed a few runs ago. A little warmer but it has the big QPF event we are looking for.

[txtwister78]

Interesting:

https://x.com/ryanmaue/status/187535747 ... _m1NXPw4Cg

This probably should be highlighted even more. This explains the disconnect between what some on here have been pointing to regarding arctic cold (yes, it's there), but it never really unloads into the United States. Explains why ensembles and operationals have shifted much warmer over the past few days.

[Stratton23]

GEPS still a very aggressive snowfall signal, its not backing off

[orangeblood]

0Z Canadian Ens mean snowfall increasing across a large part of the state. GFS Ensembles now the outlier at this point

[wxman22]

0z Euro still onboard.

[txtwister78]

0Z Canadian Ens mean snowfall increasing across a large part of the state. GFS Ensembles now the outlier at this point

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1735948800/1736618400-bgTTdA5MhpI.png

Now even I'll admit that's pretty damn bullish for the CMC ensemble. Usually, it's more reserved with precip and yes, a bit colder but it does have a decent track record of signaling winter weather events within 5 days. Interesting run no question.

[Throckmorton]

The ICON deterministic model (Jan. 4, 00Z) forecasts a two–day snow and sleet storm for Austin beginning on Wednesday, with total accummulations (assuming a 10:1 ratio) of 12.7 inches.

[orangeblood]

Woah if you account for the warm bias of the Euro, this could be a pretty extreme event for a wide are of the state a few degrees colder

[wxman22]

[Brandon8181]

Woah if you account for the warm bias of the Euro, this could be a pretty extreme event for a wide are of the state a few degrees colder
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/total_precip_inch/1735948800/1736575200-8ZnRoVGYaXQ.png

I think you may be right.

[Stratton23]

One thing i noticed in the 84 hour period in the models is the 00z GFS has a 1044 mb canadian high dropping into montana, the 00z NAM has a 1051-1052mb high dropping into montana at hour 84 , that could have significant implications

[txtwister78]

I think you've got two camps. GFS and Euro continue to be the warmer models while yes deliver some snow but folks it's still razor thin in terms of temp profiles as Euro continues to be a bit warmer with each run it would appear. The only difference is do we get a system that comes out a little faster that provides a brief window for some snowfall across mostly northern areas of the state before warm air advection takes over.

ICON and CMC clearly are obviously the colder solutions with better odds of more snow across a greater portion of the state. Need to root for those two at this point in my opinion despite marginal improvement regarding the GFS/Euro operationals.

[Brandon8181]

I think the Euro is a little too far north. The Icon solution makes most sense to me.

[txtwister78]

One thing i noticed in the 84 hour period in the models is the 00z GFS has a 1044 mb canadian high dropping into montana, the 00z NAM has a 1051-1052mb high dropping into montana at hour 84 , that could have significant implications

I don't think that ever makes it south to impact us in any meaningful way. That's pretty much what Maue was saying in that tweet. Arctic air gets bottled up but never really unloads into the US courtesy of warm pacific air flooding into the west. You can see signs of it on models mid-week and especially late next week.

[Gotwood]

Some -36 degree readings in Saskatchewan Canada.

[Stratton23]

EPS no longer hangs the cut off low over baja, it eventually ejects over the state , like seeing that

[orangeblood]

EPS no longer hangs the cut off low over baja, it eventually ejects over the state , like seeing that

Massive uptick in mean snowfall, similar to its Op. Again, GEFS is the clear outlier here