Texas Winter 2024-2025

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2321 Postby snownado » Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:07 am

Brent wrote::eek: I'm in the same city as Jim Cantore :eek: :lol:


You should camera bomb him (just don't charge up to him like some NFL linebacker :ggreen: )...
Last edited by snownado on Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2322 Postby snownado » Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:11 am



The GFS/EURO (and the ICON/GGEM) really show how much of a "Thread the Needle" setup this would be for DFW...
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2323 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:16 am

Ahead of the big storm there could be disturbances, there very well could be snow in the panhandle, and possibly extending east out into the western Red River valley, and parts of western NTX that don't show up well due to being weak. I would watch for this. It would be snowing in lower temperatures so does not take much.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2324 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:18 am

We really need ICON type temps to feel comfortable. We can def get heavy snow with temps in low to mid 30s but with mid levels also borderline it's tricky. Thankfully models didn't show a warm nose they just show near steady temps from surface up though 850mb.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2325 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:19 am

Ralph's Weather wrote:We really need ICON type temps to feel comfortable. We can def get heavy snow with temps in low to mid 30s but with mid levels also borderline it's tricky. Thankfully models didn't show a warm nose they just show near steady temps from surface up though 850mb.


The actual vorticity will help bring the upper levels down colder. It's very near the surface where the Euro is warmest, initially.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2326 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:19 am

Ntxw wrote:Ahead of the big storm there could be disturbances, there very well could be snow in the panhandle, and possibly extending east out into the western Red River valley, and parts of western NTX that don't show up well due to being weak. I would watch for this. It would be snowing in lower temperatures so does not take much.

I am watching for this. They are unlikely to reach my area but part of N TX could def see some flurries mid week.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2327 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:22 am

Ntxw wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:We really need ICON type temps to feel comfortable. We can def get heavy snow with temps in low to mid 30s but with mid levels also borderline it's tricky. Thankfully models didn't show a warm nose they just show near steady temps from surface up though 850mb.


The actual vorticity will help bring the upper levels down colder. It's very near the surface where the Euro is warmest, initially.

Yep, I am discounting Euro surface temps. I think DFW holds between 28 and 31 during the event. Over here around Tyler the concern is if it ends up 31 to 34. By Thu night I20 even my area should cool sufficiently. Hoping for it to be cold enough all day Thu.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2328 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:25 am

12z ICON has a snow storm going for the northwestern 2/3rds-ish of the state, central TX freezing rain changing to snow, and freezing rain in the northern parts of SE Texas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2329 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:26 am

For SE TX, the National Blend of Models has backed off on SN/ZR over SE TX and LA. From a trace yesterday to none now. GFS has winter precip now north of CLL. CMC now going with heavy ZR SE TX - 1/2" over Houston and nearly 2" to our west. Its temps are too cold, though. Definitely a trend toward decreasing winter weather locally. Now, if I could only get those temps up into the 80s...
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2330 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:29 am

12z ICON delivers in a big way across Central Texas down into the southern HC where elevation helps just enough North/NW of SA metro. Probably a mix of sleet and maybe a little snow in SA before precip shuts off.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2331 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:31 am

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2332 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:33 am

The trends were in the right direction overnight, but things still look 50/50. Let's hope the trend is our friend over these next few days!

 https://x.com/whatisthisrds/status/1875559089117462602

Last edited by bubba hotep on Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2333 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:34 am

For the I-20 corridor and west Texas part of the state the ICON's surface temps of upper 20s to near 30 during the event is ideal. 850s are also in the ~ -5C range. You would get pretty decent ratios probably a little better than 10:1.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2334 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:36 am

Ntxw wrote:For the I-20 corridor and west Texas part of the state the ICON's surface temps of upper 20s to near 30 during the event is ideal. 850s are also in the ~ -5C range. You would get pretty decent ratios probably a little better than 10:1.


I think we can fade the global models cooler than what they are currently showing. This could be an epic event for Texas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2335 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:37 am

bubba hotep wrote:
Ntxw wrote:For the I-20 corridor and west Texas part of the state the ICON's surface temps of upper 20s to near 30 during the event is ideal. 850s are also in the ~ -5C range. You would get pretty decent ratios probably a little better than 10:1.


I think we can fade the global models cooler than what they are currently showing. This could be an epic event for Texas.


It's a high impact event for the state, could be memorable for some. Hanging SW low produce some of the biggest events where it is cold enough such as Jan 1985, of course the cold here won't be as intense so things may shift. A phase at that, rare to get both to come together just west enough, usually phasing happens further east or too far northwest.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2336 Postby rwfromkansas » Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:46 am

Already getting heavy freezing drizzle in central Kansas with slick roads, which is why my Christmas got “bumped” to later in the month. This is a strong storm.

I hope we can stay 30 or so and get a good snow here TH.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2337 Postby Wntrwthrguy » Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:48 am

Would like to see more of a SE shift toward Austin in the models. Even the ICON continues to move the snow line NW away from Austin. Hopefully still a chance for those of us in the surrounding Austin area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2338 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:49 am

rwfromkansas wrote:Already getting heavy freezing drizzle in central Kansas with slick roads, which is why my Christmas got “bumped” to later in the month. This is a strong storm.

I hope we can stay 30 or so and get a good snow here TH.


Not that it matters at this point but 2 feet totals may be seen in far northeastern Kansas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2339 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:50 am

Ntxw wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
Ntxw wrote:For the I-20 corridor and west Texas part of the state the ICON's surface temps of upper 20s to near 30 during the event is ideal. 850s are also in the ~ -5C range. You would get pretty decent ratios probably a little better than 10:1.


I think we can fade the global models cooler than what they are currently showing. This could be an epic event for Texas.


It's a high impact event for the state, could be memorable for some. Hanging SW low produce some of the biggest events where it is cold enough such as Jan 1985, of course the cold here won't be as intense so things may shift. A phase at that, rare to get both to come together just west enough, usually phasing happens further east or too far northwest.


Yup. 85 if I recall had two shots of arctic air with an almost similar setup as it relates to the position of the low, although in that event there were some pretty big snowfall drop offs in terms of accumulation as you headed north and east as the system never fully came out, but instead sent out impulses for a few days that shattered snowfall records across SA.

Really missing that 2nd shot of arctic air otherwise this could be another 85 further south.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2340 Postby cajungal » Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:51 am

Have your fun Tx. While I :cry: here in SE Louisiana
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