Texas Winter 2024-2025

[HockeyTx82]

Whether or not some areas of Texas get wintry precipitation, there will be rolling blackouts throughout the state most likely. So, prepare for that.

I honestly don't see a huge risk for that with temps being as warm as they will be and this looking more like a snow event as opposed to an ice storm situation but never hurts to prepare

Edit: I get the 2021 event still has people on edge and rightfully so, but thankfully not every event is going to end up being anywhere near what that was. Temps most of next week won't even be in the same ballpark to what that period brought in terms of frigid/historic cold across the entire state leading up to the widespread snow and ice that we experienced then.

Better to be prepared and not need it than to be unprepared and in need. Hopefully, ERCOT has beefed up its amount of power, and all will be well. But, we aren’t taking chances and are ready until winter has passed.

If you do lose power and your refrigerator and or freezer is about thaw and lose food, if there's enough snow and it's cold enough just bury stuff in the snow until the power comes back on.

That's what I did in 2021 and lost nothing.

As a former Boy Scout and current cub scout leader I used my training!

[Throckmorton]

GEM's catastrophic ice storm forecast for Austin (Jan. 4, 12Z run):

33–26...Thursday (freezing rain; 0.55 inches of ice)
37–24...Friday (freezing rain changing to rain around 3 pm; 0.91 inches of new ice)
40–23...Satuday (morning light snow showers)

This isn't a threat to the ERCOT managed state grid like in February 2021. But that amount of ice would bring down power lines all over the place in Austin. Worse than February 2023, when some were without power 7-9 days.

[txtwister78]

AUS/SA NWS Afternoon Discussion

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 236 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2025

Key Messages...


- A cold week ahead with below normal climate temperatures.

- There is low to moderate potential for wintry precipitation
sometime Wednesday afternoon to Friday.


A cold start of the work week with Monday's highs in the 40s and 50s
with few locations getting into the lower 60s along the Rio Grande
Plains. Expect sunny skies with breezy north winds and gusty
conditions. A few high clouds are forecast to push from the west
Monday night into Tuesday morning with overnight lows in the lower
20s across the Hill Country to mid 20s along the I-35 corridor to
mid and upper 20s across the coastal plains and lower 30s along the
Rio Grande Plains. Light winds are anticipated for this period,
however, wind chills likely to feel in the teens over the Hill
Country and portions of the southern Edwards Plateau.

As the day progresses, Tuesday's highs are forecast to make it only
to the upper 40s to lower and mid 50s with mostly sunny to sunny
skies. By Tuesday night, an upper level low pressure system over
southern California is forecast to push to the southeast into Baja
California and northwest Mexico. At the surface, overnight lows drop
to the lower 20s across the Hill Country to mid and upper 20s and
even lower 30s along the I-35 corridor.

Dry and cold weather continues on Wednesday with highs in the 40s.
By this time frame, the upper level low pressure system mentioned
above is likely moving over the northwest part of Mexico and then
opens into a wave early Thursday morning while approaching central
Mexico. This translates to slight chances for precipitation in a
wintry mix potential for parts of the Rio Grande, southern Edwards
Plateau and Hill Country including the Austin metro area while
southerly winds return and overnight lows range from the upper 20s
to lower 30s. Areas along and south of Highway 90 should see rain.

Increased moisture continues to be pulled on Thursday as the upper
short wave approaches South Central Texas and moves over on Thursday
evening through Friday. During the day on Thursday, expect rain to
be the main precipitation type. As temperatures drop to the freezing
mark and below, the precipitation type likely to take many shapes
including freezing rain, sleet and even snow.

Model guidance and ensemble outputs are providing a large spread of
solutions as of this forecast package. We will continue to adjust
and offer more details on this week's cold weather event on each
forecast weather package.

[txtwister78]

GEM's catastrophic ice storm forecast for Austin (Jan. 4, 12Z run):

33–26...Thursday (freezing rain; 0.55 inches of ice)
37–24...Friday (freezing rain changing to rain around 3 pm; 0.91 inches of new ice)
40–23...Satuday (morning light snow showers)

This isn't a threat to the ERCOT managed state grid like in February 2021. But that amount of ice would bring down power lines all over the place in Austin. Worse than February 2023, when some were without power 7-9 days.

Yeah CMC is worst case scenario for Austin no doubt and important to distinguish between localized power outages (local utility responsibility) which still could occur in spots as you point out and ERCOT which of course manages the state grid.

[Iceresistance]

What did I miss?

[gpsnowman]

When is the next ICON?

[txtwister78]

When is the next ICON?

Incoming now

[txtwister78]

ICON generating a little light snow across SA and southern HC Wednesday early evening with temps around freezing

[txtwister78]

[Ralph's Weather]

ICON and GFS spitting out some snow Wed across C TX.

[Iceresistance]

12z EPS bullseyes DFW


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXISt.png

[gpsnowman]

https://m3o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/icon/2025010418/102/prateptype_cat_icon-imp.us_sc.png

https://m3o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/icon/2025010418/120/prateptype_cat_icon-imp.us_sc.png

Is this the first indication for the Wednesday snow?

[JDawg512]

GEM's catastrophic ice storm forecast for Austin (Jan. 4, 12Z run):

33–26...Thursday (freezing rain; 0.55 inches of ice)
37–24...Friday (freezing rain changing to rain around 3 pm; 0.91 inches of new ice)
40–23...Satuday (morning light snow showers)

This isn't a threat to the ERCOT managed state grid like in February 2021. But that amount of ice would bring down power lines all over the place in Austin. Worse than February 2023, when some were without power 7-9 days.

Yeah CMC is worst case scenario for Austin no doubt and important to distinguish between localized power outages (local utility responsibility) which still could occur in spots as you point out and ERCOT which of course manages the state grid.

The biggest issue that made the situation much worse for Austin 2 years ago was that 400 or something foot radio tower that collapsed under the weight of the ice. That caused a lot of damage to the nearby power lines/station??? can't remember if there's a station there but it caused a mess. No video of it but I can imagine the sound was unreal when that fell.

[txtwister78]

ICON and GFS spitting out some snow Wed across C TX.

Yeah I think NTX mentioned this earlier about having to watch that sneaky piece of energy dropping south and possibly coming out a bit sooner. If that occurs as ICON and GFS seem to now be hinting at, then perhaps we could see wider impacts of winter precipitation for even more areas. Interesting to note that AUS/SA NWS office also had this possibility in their AFD

[txtwister78]

https://m3o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/icon/2025010418/102/prateptype_cat_icon-imp.us_sc.png

https://m3o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/icon/2025010418/120/prateptype_cat_icon-imp.us_sc.png

Is this the first indication for the Wednesday snow?

Appears to be for now. Definitely something else to watch further south

[Stratton23]

ICON 18z brings some light snow accumulations into se texas lol

[gpsnowman]

https://m3o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/icon/2025010418/102/prateptype_cat_icon-imp.us_sc.png

https://m3o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/icon/2025010418/120/prateptype_cat_icon-imp.us_sc.png

Is this the first indication for the Wednesday snow?

Appears to be for now. Definitely something else to watch further south

Interesting. Seems to be expanding as well as days with snow chances. Good for central Texas.

[txtwister78]

Biggest difference with 18z ICON is it really digs the low further south into Mexico and is more compact. Not as broad as the 12z run had and so a little colder upper levels and thus more snow potential for Central and even SC TX perhaps if this were to go out beyond 120.

[Throckmorton]

GEM's catastrophic ice storm forecast for Austin (Jan. 4, 12Z run):

33–26...Thursday (freezing rain; 0.55 inches of ice)
37–24...Friday (freezing rain changing to rain around 3 pm; 0.91 inches of new ice)
40–23...Satuday (morning light snow showers)

This isn't a threat to the ERCOT managed state grid like in February 2021. But that amount of ice would bring down power lines all over the place in Austin. Worse than February 2023, when some were without power 7-9 days.

Yeah CMC is worst case scenario for Austin no doubt and important to distinguish between localized power outages (local utility responsibility) which still could occur in spots as you point out and ERCOT which of course manages the state grid.

For comparison purposes, the ice totaled "just" 0.60 inches in February 2023 at Austin Camp Mabry. Less at the airport.

[Throckmorton]

GEM's catastrophic ice storm forecast for Austin (Jan. 4, 12Z run):

33–26...Thursday (freezing rain; 0.55 inches of ice)
37–24...Friday (freezing rain changing to rain around 3 pm; 0.91 inches of new ice)
40–23...Satuday (morning light snow showers)

This isn't a threat to the ERCOT managed state grid like in February 2021. But that amount of ice would bring down power lines all over the place in Austin. Worse than February 2023, when some were without power 7-9 days.

Yeah CMC is worst case scenario for Austin no doubt and important to distinguish between localized power outages (local utility responsibility) which still could occur in spots as you point out and ERCOT which of course manages the state grid.

The biggest issue that made the situation much worse for Austin 2 years ago was that 400 or something foot radio tower that collapsed under the weight of the ice. That caused a lot of damage to the nearby power lines/station??? can't remember if there's a station there but it caused a mess. No video of it but I can imagine the sound was unreal when that fell.

That was insignificant. Power lines went down all over the city, mostly small neighborhood ones. Plus, there were equipment failures that had nothing to do with trees, which Austin Energy was loathe to admit.