Texas Winter 2024-2025

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2641 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:45 am

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2642 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:46 am

snownado wrote:
Ntxw wrote:12z ICON is heavy snow for much of North Texas and parts of Central Texas.


With a bullseye near/just SW of DFW.

It's pretty similar-looking to the 06z GFS from Saturday morning.


Ensembles have been zoning in on the region between DFW and Abilene and slightly southwest. It will be convective in nature and streaking some high totals, will be hard to pinpoint still a bit far out for the better hi res. At the same time the best QPF will be along I-30.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2643 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:50 am

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:
Brent wrote:Already near blizzard conditions in Kansas City :double:

This is gonna be one of the worst snowstorms on record here


My hometown on HRRR, RAP, even Euro etc. is near/over 20 inches. Just jaw-dropping.

The biggest storm I ever had as a kid was 12. They had 14 after I moved, but nowhere near this.

This is stunning.

On another forum one of the posters is in my hometown, McPherson. Lol.



Go Bullpups!


Dang, folks usually never heard of it. Lol. I kind of regret not going up to see it. My dad would be like a kid with this.

But, I couldn’t risk missing the first few days of the semester. Ugh.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2644 Postby wxman22 » Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:51 am

Wow! And we're now within 120 hours that's just crazy.


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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2645 Postby snownado » Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:51 am

Ntxw wrote:
snownado wrote:
Ntxw wrote:12z ICON is heavy snow for much of North Texas and parts of Central Texas.


With a bullseye near/just SW of DFW.

It's pretty similar-looking to the 06z GFS from Saturday morning.


Ensembles have been zoning in on the region between DFW and Abilene and slightly southwest. It will be convective in nature and streaking some high totals, will be hard to pinpoint still a bit far out for the better hi res. At the same time the best QPF will be along I-30.


Would love nothing more than a February 2011 redux (although again, still think it's a long shot).

It's going be wild this week (in terms of people panicking) if headliens start going out. H-E-B was already jam packed and completely wiped out yesterday ahead of this cold blast.
Last edited by snownado on Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:54 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2646 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:51 am

This is really going to come down to the evolution of the system (timing and location) in determining who gets what and how much but as forecast offices are outlining, the temp profiles coupled with other dynamic factors are going to really make this a short range watch type event as just a few degrees warmer/colder upstairs could make all the difference for a good chunk of the state.

I think West Texas primarily can be about as confident as all right now just due to the elevation factor alone. Ensembles are certainly becoming more locked in across N TX and so that lends weight to more confidence however I've also seen ensemble guidance miss horribly with these marginal events so it's going to be an adventure as it typically is down here with winter weather forecasting.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2647 Postby Texas Snow » Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:54 am

Flight from Florida back to DFW delayed due to high winds. :roll:

I guess I’ll be able to see the 12z GFS
Last edited by Texas Snow on Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2648 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:55 am

Texas Snow wrote:Flight from Florida back to DFW delayed due to high winds. :roll:


I can confirm!
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2649 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:03 am

snownado wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
snownado wrote:
With a bullseye near/just SW of DFW.

It's pretty similar-looking to the 06z GFS from Saturday morning.


Ensembles have been zoning in on the region between DFW and Abilene and slightly southwest. It will be convective in nature and streaking some high totals, will be hard to pinpoint still a bit far out for the better hi res. At the same time the best QPF will be along I-30.


Would love nothing more than a February 2011 redux (although again, still think it's a long shot).

It's going be wild this week (in terms of people panicking) if headliens start going out. H-E-B was already jam packed and completely wiped out yesterday ahead of this cold blast.


Should be the heavier type cotton ball snow with higher water content. Very much similar to Feb 2010.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2650 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:05 am

txtwister78 wrote:This is really going to come down to the evolution of the system (timing and location) in determining who gets what and how much but as forecast offices are outlining, the temp profiles coupled with other dynamic factors are going to really make this a short range watch type event as just a few degrees warmer/colder upstairs could make all the difference for a good chunk of the state.

I think West Texas primarily can be about as confident as all right now just due to the elevation factor alone. Ensembles are certainly becoming more locked in across N TX and so that lends weight to more confidence however I've also seen ensemble guidance miss horribly with these marginal events so it's going to be an adventure as it typically is down here with winter weather forecasting.


There are guidance such as the GFS that keep West Texas dry with little qpf, I'm not sure they can be all that confident either, temps alone is not enough.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2651 Postby gpsnowman » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:06 am

Ntxw wrote:
snownado wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Ensembles have been zoning in on the region between DFW and Abilene and slightly southwest. It will be convective in nature and streaking some high totals, will be hard to pinpoint still a bit far out for the better hi res. At the same time the best QPF will be along I-30.


Would love nothing more than a February 2011 redux (although again, still think it's a long shot).

It's going be wild this week (in terms of people panicking) if headliens start going out. H-E-B was already jam packed and completely wiped out yesterday ahead of this cold blast.


Should be the heavier type cotton ball snow with higher water content. Very much similar to Feb 2010.

A much prettier snow. Like the lake effect snows we've been seeing this winter up north.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2652 Postby iorange55 » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:07 am

Yeah, the GFS last couple of runs hugs the coast with the storm and dumps a lot of rain in southeast Texas.

With central and north Texas kinda getting the backend of it all.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2653 Postby Texas Snow » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:08 am

bubba hotep wrote:I'm getting nervous about temp profiles even as far north as DFW. Whoever can avoid flipping to freezing rain or sleet will jackpot big time with this one.


The SkewTs on both the GFS and Euro are nerve wracking. Need the column just a couple degrees colder to be safe. Hopefully NAM comes through on that.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2654 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:10 am

Ntxw wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:This is really going to come down to the evolution of the system (timing and location) in determining who gets what and how much but as forecast offices are outlining, the temp profiles coupled with other dynamic factors are going to really make this a short range watch type event as just a few degrees warmer/colder upstairs could make all the difference for a good chunk of the state.

I think West Texas primarily can be about as confident as all right now just due to the elevation factor alone. Ensembles are certainly becoming more locked in across N TX and so that lends weight to more confidence however I've also seen ensemble guidance miss horribly with these marginal events so it's going to be an adventure as it typically is down here with winter weather forecasting.


There are guidance such as the GFS that keep West Texas dry with little qpf, I'm not sure they can be all that confident either, temps alone is not enough.


Sure, but I was talking about elevation helping in that whatever does fall would likely be all snow. Elevation (as I'm sure you know) with these type of events can make all the difference with precip types. We're obviously still trying to get a handle on where precip is most likely based on evolution of the low
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2655 Postby opticsguy » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:11 am

30 kt crosswinds will test the limits of the pilot and aircraft

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Last edited by opticsguy on Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:14 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2656 Postby Gotwood » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:12 am

Ntxw wrote:
snownado wrote:
Ntxw wrote:12z ICON is heavy snow for much of North Texas and parts of Central Texas.


With a bullseye near/just SW of DFW.

It's pretty similar-looking to the 06z GFS from Saturday morning.


Ensembles have been zoning in on the region between DFW and Abilene and slightly southwest. It will be convective in nature and streaking some high totals, will be hard to pinpoint still a bit far out for the better hi res. At the same time the best QPF will be along I-30.

That’s my back yard lol. Im willing it haha
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2657 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:15 am

It looks like the OP runs this morning are converging on a good timing phase painted by the last few Euro runs at 5h. Nuances will dictate qpf as well as development of coastal low pressure. There are convective streaks coming out of Mexico (with limited field of view naturally out there.) but definitely increasing confidence a major winter storm is coming out to Texas. As noted prior jet streak from SW to NE is unusually strong for our region.

Now watch the Euro flip :lol:. Probably not but seen worse.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2658 Postby snownado » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:17 am

12z GFS is improved from its 06z run, with a extremely marginal but nice hit for DFW and northeastward.

Still not as good as the runs from yesterday morning though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2659 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:23 am

Well you always have the Canadian still trying to hold it back. But a huge ice storm for many.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2660 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:23 am

rwfromkansas wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:
My hometown on HRRR, RAP, even Euro etc. is near/over 20 inches. Just jaw-dropping.

The biggest storm I ever had as a kid was 12. They had 14 after I moved, but nowhere near this.

This is stunning.

On another forum one of the posters is in my hometown, McPherson. Lol.



Go Bullpups!


Dang, folks usually never heard of it. Lol. I kind of regret not going up to see it. My dad would be like a kid with this.

But, I couldn’t risk missing the first few days of the semester. Ugh.



Our best family friends from Longview went there. The couple, Ramsdale’s, grew up there.
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