Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Ntxw]

Tonight's 0z NAM runs will show up through Thursday 12z which is when the Euro starts the more expansive precip shield. Could be some wild convective showings from it.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looks like a Dream storm coming for you guys in the DFW area. No more crying about missing the events up there!

Any word on jets sampling the data in the pacific? I think once they gather data from that region, it should help the models even more.

Something to note, JB always says if you have thunderstorms roll through, one week later you can expect snow. Interesting that this wise tale is playing out for many.

[Brandon8181]

Looks like a Dream storm coming for you guys in the DFW area. No more crying about missing the events up there!

Any word on jets sampling the data in the pacific? I think once they gather data from that region, it should help the models even more.

Something to note, JB always says if you have thunderstorms roll through, one week later you can expect snow. Interesting that this wise tale is playing out for many.

Is there any kind of science at all behind this (at all?) Or only a wise tale?

[Wthrfan]

It's snowing! With tiny flakes!

23°F with a WC of 7°F

It's really picked up here in Edmond. Had a 1% chance per TWC and have a little sticking to the roofs and the grass!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Looks like a Dream storm coming for you guys in the DFW area. No more crying about missing the events up there!

Any word on jets sampling the data in the pacific? I think once they gather data from that region, it should help the models even more.

Something to note, JB always says if you have thunderstorms roll through, one week later you can expect snow. Interesting that this wise tale is playing out for many.

Is there any kind of science at all behind this (at all?) Or only a wise tale?

It’s folklore, but there is some legitimacy to it. Usually thunderstorms in Winter is a precursor to a major pattern shakeup.

[Iceresistance]

Snowflakes getting larger and more visible, also coming down heavier too!

23°F with a WC of 7°F

[WacoWx]

TWC app has 3-5” in Dallas Thursday night.

[Ntxw]

Late Jan 1966 and 1978 analogs joining the group in the week 2 period (late Jan.) Though I would weigh them a bit lighter than 1985 due to El Nino. Nonetheless they are very snowy.

[bubba hotep]

The Euro EPS seems locked in, but we still have a long way to go. We are still about 12 hrs from 1 & 2 moving onshore and getting sampled better (I wish they would have flown an upper-level mission over the North Pacific). Then 3 is still way out in the North Pacific. That makes me nervous as a lot can change as we wait for it to crash down the Rockies and into our system. Too many moving parts to make me feel good

[foulbeast]

[bubba hotep]

http://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/graphicast/image2.jpg

IMHO, if the rain/snow line is that far south, then DFW is cashing in!

[wxman22]

[Portastorm]

The Euro EPS seems locked in, but we still have a long way to go. We are still about 12 hrs from 1 & 2 moving onshore and getting sampled better (I wish they would have flown an upper-level mission over the North Pacific). Then 3 is still way out in the North Pacific. That makes me nervous as a lot can change as we wait for it to crash down the Rockies and into our system. Too many moving parts to make me feel good

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GgjoHhTWkAAtu2m?format=jpg&name=small

Very good and informative post here! This is why folks shouldn't get too up or down about any specific model run. A lot to still determine and small, subtle changes in the real-time weather can have larger impacts down the road.

[wxman57]

12Z EC has about 12" of snow up there in DFW. Hope you get your fill so we can move on to summer. Here in Houston, upper 30s and rain.

[txtwister78]

Austin/San Antonio forecast office seems to be more bullish on at least mixed precip types next week across the region including the possibility of getting into the major metros. Still some things to iron out obviously but interesting discussion given some of the global model uncertainty.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM CST Sun Jan 5 2025

Key Messages...

- High confidence on a cold week with below normal climate
temperatures.

- There is moderate to high confidence on precipitation
from Wednesday afternoon/evening through Friday.

- Confidence increasing for all precipitation types

Cold weather conditions continue across South Central Texas through
the extended forecast period. Dry conditions are in place for
Tuesday and part of Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon into the
evening continuing through Thursday morning, the weather pattern
changes as an upper level low pressure system over northwest Mexico
moves to the southeast. At low to mid levels, increased moisture
arrives across South Central Texas with 850 mb and 700 mb levels
coming in saturated per forecast soundings. There is a slight to low
end chances for precipitation during the Wednesday afternoon/evening
period into Thursday morning with temperatures reaching the freezing
mark and as low as 25/26 degrees over the southern Edwards Plateau,
upper 20s to lower 30s over portions of the Hill Country including
the Austin and San Antonio metro areas and 31 to 33 degrees along I-
35 corridor and coastal plains. All precipitation types are
possible, however, amounts and impacts are still hard to determine
with a large spread of solutions this far out.

A second round of increased moisture arrives during the day on
Thursday as the upper level low opens while moving across central
Mexico and then pulls to the northeast to push across the local area.
During this period, chances for precipitation has increased (40-70)
with temperatures above freezing during the day on Thursday but
dropping to 32 degrees and below Thursday evening into Friday
morning. For this second round of precipitation, our confidence is
increasing as far as seeing all precipitation types with wintry mix
over parts of the Rio Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, and Hill
Country. Once again, amounts and impacts are hard to pinpoint at
this time, however, we are looking forward to be entering into the
hires time frame to offer more details as this cold weather week
evolves.

[Yukon Cornelius]

https://i.ibb.co/Rht79Kc/image-full8.png

Voting for track 2

[SnowintheFalls]

https://i.ibb.co/Rht79Kc/image-full8.png

Voting for track 2

Same!

[wxman22]

18Z ICON

[Gotwood]

https://i.ibb.co/Rht79Kc/image-full8.png

Voting for track 2

Seems like that’s what the latest ICON did

[cheezyWXguy]

18Z ICON

https://i.ibb.co/Kq1qGYf/icon-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-32.png

https://i.ibb.co/vhgYMLc/sn10-acc-imp-us-sc-10.png

This is…interesting. If I remember correctly the icon does not depict mixed precip and only shows it as rain. If so, this run makes me nervous about impacts to the southern half of the metro.