Texas Winter 2024-2025

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2741 Postby Gotwood » Sun Jan 05, 2025 4:52 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:

This is…interesting. If I remember correctly the icon does not depict mixed precip and only shows it as rain. If it so, this run makes me nervous about impacts to the southern half of the metro.

Yeah based on that one the line between boom and bust is very small.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2742 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 05, 2025 5:02 pm

Gotwood wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:

This is…interesting. If I remember correctly the icon does not depict mixed precip and only shows it as rain. If it so, this run makes me nervous about impacts to the southern half of the metro.

Yeah based on that one the line between boom and bust is very small.


Yeah ICON is cutting it close, Oklahoma loves this run though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2743 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 05, 2025 5:06 pm

Not seeing anything drastic at 5h from the 18z GFS. What can be seen is that there are waves of precip that we won't get a handle on until nearly real time.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2744 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Jan 05, 2025 5:08 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Gotwood wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:This is…interesting. If I remember correctly the icon does not depict mixed precip and only shows it as rain. If it so, this run makes me nervous about impacts to the southern half of the metro.

Yeah based on that one the line between boom and bust is very small.


Yeah ICON is cutting it close, Oklahoma loves this run though.

Oh yes we do! :D

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https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXndO.png
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2745 Postby Brent » Sun Jan 05, 2025 5:12 pm

:double:

Jim Cantore is reporting 9 inches in Kansas City

Time to get one in Tulsa :spam:

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https://streamable.com/pcllft
Last edited by Brent on Sun Jan 05, 2025 5:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2746 Postby wxman22 » Sun Jan 05, 2025 5:12 pm

The 18Z GFS seems to be going towards the Euro and some of its prior runs. Big uptake in precip coverage from the previous couple of runs.

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2747 Postby foulbeast » Sun Jan 05, 2025 5:16 pm

New long-term discussion from FWD NWS.

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday Night Onward/

Cold, well-below normal temperatures will persist through midweek
in the wake of our strong Arctic cold front. During the overnight
periods, low temperatures will bottom out in the low-mid 20s with
isolated spots near the Red River dipping into the upper teens.
On top of the cold air temperatures, wind chills will drop into
the teens both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Make sure to
continue to protect vulnerable plants and pipes as well as
bundling up for the morning commutes. The afternoon highs will
peak into the 30s and 40s on Tuesday, and the 30s region-wide on
Wednesday ahead of our next storm system. While we continue to
advertise everyone will get above freezing on Wednesday afternoon,
there continues to be a 30-40% chance that some areas north of
I-20 and west of US-281 remains below freezing all day. We`ll
continue to monitor for any increasing probabilities as we get
mid-range model data in the coming days.

Over Tuesday and Wednesday, a digging upper level trough will
move into the Desert Southwest. The southern extent of the trough
will eventually split from the main flow and amplify into a closed
cut- off low over the Mexican States of Baja California and
Sonora. While increased forcing for ascent from the low
overspreads West Texas, low-level moisture will be urged northward
on the eastern periphery of the low. This will allow for rain and
wintry precip to our west Wednesday afternoon. While there is a
low (< 15%) chance that this precipitation reaches our Big Country
and southwestern counties in the form of light sprinkles or
flurries, a very dry layer under 700mb will keep most, if not all,
precipitation from reaching the ground.

The aforementioned low will eventually weaken into an open
shortwave as it moves into the Southern Plans late this upcoming
week. Increased upper-level lift will work with the present
moisture overtop the region to promote increasing chances for rain
and wintry precipitation Wednesday night through Friday morning.
Forecast soundings continue to show at or below freezing
temperatures throughout the atmospheric column, leading to the
belief that the majority of precipitation will be in the form of
snow. However, the potential for any freezing rain across portions
of Central Texas is still uncertain at this time.. This will need
to be carefully watched as any ice accumulations could cause
greater impacts.

While we have been advertising the potential for wintry
precipitation over the last several days, the probability
continues to skyrocket. Previous ensemble and cluster analysis
featured two distinct scenarios, one of which was wetter with
winter precipitation and the second was a warmer and drier
solution with minimal winter precipitation. Yesterday, 70% of
ensemble members favored the wetter solution. Today, that
percentage is 80%, with approximately 20% of ensemble members now
outputting the drier solution. Additionally, there is now (70-80%)
high confidence of at least measurable snowfall (> 0.10") across
the majority of the region. All of this put together boosts our
confidence in the overall forecast trend, though fine-scale
details regarding exact type of precipitation, accumulation
amounts, and locations of highest snowfall still remain somewhat
up in the air as of this forecast issuance. The current most
likely snow scenario is a widespread 1-3" of total snowfall
accumulations with isolated higher amounts Wednesday night through
Friday morning. Since we are still 5 days out and just out of the
mid- range model window, these amounts will become more refined
and will likely change as we get closer. Continue to monitor the
forecast in the coming days and start planning for winter weather
preparations.

By Friday afternoon, the rain and winter precipitation will have
ended. Over next weekend, returning southerly winds will help to
bring afternoon highs into the 40s and 50s ahead of another
potential cold front.

Prater

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2748 Postby Wthrfan » Sun Jan 05, 2025 5:17 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2749 Postby gpsnowman » Sun Jan 05, 2025 5:20 pm

All these models are close calls with the rain/snow line a little too close for comfort. I'm with Bubba, a bit nervous.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2750 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 05, 2025 5:21 pm

Really impressed with the Euro's performance so far at 500mb in this medium range. That the other guidance shifted for about one or two run cycles, they've all followed suit to the ECM. It's pretty good at upper levels. Its wheelbarrow is 3-7 days.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2751 Postby orangeblood » Sun Jan 05, 2025 5:26 pm

wxman22 wrote:The 18Z GFS seems to be going towards the Euro and some of its prior runs. Big uptake in precip coverage from the previous couple of runs.

https://i.ibb.co/Rz9gf8z/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-16.png

https://i.ibb.co/Y3Z10WX/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-17.png


Our GFS friend is a little slower to get it but eventually he comes around, it’s heavy snow axis now aligning with the Euro. That axis looks like it will run from Abilene to DFW to Paris, confidence increasing for greater than 6” amounts along that axis

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2752 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Jan 05, 2025 5:29 pm

Anytime you have a system coming out of Mexico there is always a surprise. Doesn't mean any one particular model at this range is right or wrong in my opinion but this seems like a broken record at this point I know, but being that this is largely a upper-level driven event I'm not surprised that we're still seeing some wild fluctuations with the global models several days out. Until models can sample over the next day or two, we may be in for a few more fluctuations before we begin to really lock in on amounts and specific impact regions despite what we have now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2753 Postby wxman22 » Sun Jan 05, 2025 5:31 pm

gpsnowman wrote:All these models are close calls with the rain/snow line a little too close for comfort. I'm with Bubba, a bit nervous.


I guess its kind of a trade off, you don't wont to be too close to the transition line as you risk changing over to sleet or rain. But at the same time somewhere in the transition zone (deformation zone) will have the highest snowfall potential. It's a Goldilocks situation.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2754 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Jan 05, 2025 5:32 pm

JayDT wrote:I don’t know if it’s just me not paying attention to that, but I had never heard of a Cold Weather Advisory.


I just got the alert for one too and I’ve never heard of it either.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2755 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 05, 2025 5:34 pm

Brent wrote::double:

Jim Cantore is reporting 9 inches in Kansas City

Time to get one in Tulsa :spam:

https://i.ibb.co/ThwsWgn/IMG-20250105-155007540.jpg
https://streamable.com/pcllft


Very nice! So glad you made that trip, it looks worthwhile.

Topeka NWS looks like Alaska.

 https://x.com/NWSTopeka/status/1876004407512564059

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2756 Postby orangeblood » Sun Jan 05, 2025 5:37 pm

txtwister78 wrote:Anytime you have a system coming out of Mexico there is always a surprise. Doesn't mean any one particular model at this range is right or wrong in my opinion but this seems like a broken record at this point I know, but being that this is largely a upper-level driven event I'm not surprised that we're still seeing some wild fluctuations with the global models several days out. Until models can sample over the next day or two, we may be in for a few more fluctuations before we begin to really lock in on amounts and specific impact regions despite what we have now.


Wild fluctuations?? The best model we have for these setups (King Euro) hasn’t wavered much at all over the last several days, the other globals have been a pretty big distraction in hindsight
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2757 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sun Jan 05, 2025 5:39 pm

wxman22 wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:All these models are close calls with the rain/snow line a little too close for comfort. I'm with Bubba, a bit nervous.


I guess its kind of a trade off, you don't wont to be too close to the transition line as you risk changing over to sleet or rain. But at the same time somewhere in the transition zone (deformation zone) will have the highest snowfall potential. It's a Goldilocks situation.

I am in Lindale north of Tyler. Per all models we are right on the edge between multi inch snow and mostly rain. EPS is best for us here with 40% for >4" and 75% for >1".
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2758 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Jan 05, 2025 5:43 pm

orangeblood wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:Anytime you have a system coming out of Mexico there is always a surprise. Doesn't mean any one particular model at this range is right or wrong in my opinion but this seems like a broken record at this point I know, but being that this is largely a upper-level driven event I'm not surprised that we're still seeing some wild fluctuations with the global models several days out. Until models can sample over the next day or two, we may be in for a few more fluctuations before we begin to really lock in on amounts and specific impact regions despite what we have now.


Wild fluctuations?? The best model we have for these setups (King Euro) hasn’t wavered much at all over the last several days, the other globals have been a pretty big distraction in hindsight


The point I was making, (and I get you like the Euro lol) is the ICON had the axis of snow less than 24 hours ago several hundred miles south. So yeah that's called a wild fluctuation. The GFS hasn't been nearly as bullish with snowfall including the GEFS. The CMC is putting down ice glaciers all over. So, while yes one model has been fairly consistent, we have several that have been anything but.

I don't know if I would call it "King Euro" after 2021...just saying but carry on my friend. Lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2759 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sun Jan 05, 2025 5:44 pm

So that climate Prediction Center map that showed a slight risk of heavy snowfall around the time coming up, what made them call that because they actually seem to potentially nailed it if everything actually happens the way it looks like it will.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2760 Postby Brandon8181 » Sun Jan 05, 2025 5:45 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
wxman22 wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:All these models are close calls with the rain/snow line a little too close for comfort. I'm with Bubba, a bit nervous.


I guess its kind of a trade off, you don't wont to be too close to the transition line as you risk changing over to sleet or rain. But at the same time somewhere in the transition zone (deformation zone) will have the highest snowfall potential. It's a Goldilocks situation.

I am in Lindale north of Tyler. Per all models we are right on the edge between multi inch snow and mostly rain. EPS is best for us here with 40% for >4" and 75% for >1".


Been watching what your saying the last few days and it really concerns me for us winter weather lovers here. We are so close to getting just rain, or having a very nice snow with a tiny bit of freezing rain or sleet perhaps, but mainly snow.......but oh so so close....
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