Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Texas Snow]

More like cabin fever really.

Just made it home from a long weekend at my in-laws. This page discussing the upcoming storm is what pulled me through as I hit refresh probably one thousand times since Thursday. Thank y’all.

Wait a minute. You left your in-laws just to get back on a weather forum?

Since I haven’t been to work in over 3 weeks I kinda needed to get back and finally start taking it seriously again. Well as seriously as I can with a winter storm coming…

[Wthrfan]

EPS still bullseyes DFW and just west, even though I do wonder if it has trended more north since the last map I posted

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXn4e.jpg
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXn4e.jpg

https://maps.api.weatherbell.com/gif/temporary/ecmwf-ensemble-avg-tx-total_snow_10to1-1736100000-1736510400-1736510400-40.gif

Well, that last run was a major uptick

Looking a little better for us. Wouldn't mind a little further deviation north!

[gpsnowman]

I have an off day Thursday. If I am able to witness, without interruption, 6-12 inches of snow fall that would be the weather highlight of my life. Too soon to talk about school closures obviously, but I am sure my daughter would feel the same way.

[Texas Snow]

i have an off day Thursday. If I am able to witness, without interruption, 6-12 inches of snow fall that would be the weather highlight of my life. Too soon to talk about school closures obviously, but I am sure my daughter would feel the same way.

My daughter will be flying home from Atlanta Thursday morning, arriving at Love at 10:30 am. A little worried about the flight getting cancelled but if they make it back I told her I’ll be there to get her 100%. For me it would be a blast to get out in it anyway!

[WacoWx]

TWC app now has 1-3” Thursday and 3-5” Thursday night in Dallas. Chance of snow begins as early as Wednesday night at 50%. Ends Friday midday.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

It definitely looks interesting for most of us. We will always get fluctuations in models. That's how we roll in the south. I just want a few inches accumulation from this system. Can you imagine if this system phased and tracked towards the apps?

[wxman22]

Look at Wednesdays disturbance on the 0z NAM. Interesting...

[txtwister78]

One thing I'm noticing with the NAM around the Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning timeframe and that is much colder 850mb temps all the way down into SC TX and as a result.

[Stratton23]

Woah NAM! Very aggressive with frozen precipitation, way colder and frozen precip breaks out across parts of central, south and even se texas

[bubba hotep]

The bad news in all of this is my in-laws who live in St Louis, can’t get home now and if it doesn’t happen Tuesday or Wednesday, my winter storm buzz will be attenuated by their constant presence.

[Ralph's Weather]

Look at Wednesdays disturbance on the 0z NAM. Interesting...


https://i.ibb.co/fXfx9tK/ref1km-ptype-us-sc-2.png

https://i.ibb.co/P9s5CXb/ref1km-ptype-us-sc-3.png

0Z NAM is def more aggressive with the overnight wave. I think we could get flurries started by Wed evening even. By Thu morning the event should be well underway. Nice to now be within NAM range on this event.

[txtwister78]

SREF members (mean precip) totals showing up as well. Much earlier precip start times means better odds further south for mix precip types including snow potential if these temp profiles continue to cool further south.

[Quixotic]

I’m used to not trusting the NAM. Has there been a reboot that I missed?

[orangeblood]

I’m used to not trusting the NAM. Has there been a reboot that I missed?

Me neither, we’ve been burned by this model more times than I can count over the years. More so for the precip output than temps, its most useful for temp profiles

[txtwister78]

I’m used to not trusting the NAM. Has there been a reboot that I missed?

NAM is usually more conservative down here with winter weather events in terms of precip totals with the exception of the NE (nor'easters and hurricanes) where I've seen it go nuclear with snowfall totals and maxing out tropical systems but those are different setups obviously (lows over water etc). When you start seeing it go on the uptick with precip during a winter weather event, it gives a little more credence to forecast in my opinion/ possible trends

[bubba hotep]

I’m used to not trusting the NAM. Has there been a reboot that I missed?

No reboot. Still don't trust the 84hr NAM. The 3k can be useful, but I think the HRRR has surpassed it.

[Quixotic]

I’m used to not trusting the NAM. Has there been a reboot that I missed?

Me neither, we’ve been burned by this model more times than I can count over the years. More so for the precip output than temps, its most useful for temp profiles

Yeah. I remember the phrase “You got NAMd” whenever someone was expecting a 12” storm that turned into a car topper.

[Brent]

Just from scrolling Facebook Bastardi is hyping DFW while Delkus has the best snow north of DFW

The OKC station has a lot of snow up in Oklahoma

[Ntxw]

0z ICON is a big hit. Heavy snow in NTX and WTX, mixed bag in central TX.

[Quixotic]

I’m used to not trusting the NAM. Has there been a reboot that I missed?

No reboot. Still don't trust the 84hr NAM. The 3k can be useful, but I think the HRRR has surpassed it.

Agreed. On the HRRR. Not sure if the 3k version of the NAM is convection allowing? That might be useful for banding.