Texas Winter 2024-2025
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Euro 00z has yet another system in the 10 day range that brings more snow to texas lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Stratton23 wrote:Euro 00z has yet another system in the 10 day range that brings more snow to texas lol
And plenty of cold.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Ntxw wrote:Stratton23 wrote:Euro 00z has yet another system in the 10 day range that brings more snow to texas lol
And plenty of cold.
Did the 0z Euro show convective-like precipitation for OK and TX?

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXubw.png
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Ntxw wrote:This amped euro run is getting DFW (into some mixing) with still snow in there. Oklahoma would definitely favor this run, gets more qpf up there as well.
No mixing please
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Iceresistance wrote:Ntxw wrote:Stratton23 wrote:Euro 00z has yet another system in the 10 day range that brings more snow to texas lol
And plenty of cold.
Did the 0z Euro show convective-like precipitation for OK and TX?
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXubw.png
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXubw.png
Yes, the highest qpf band is still in the main axis in TX, but it's a little better than prior runs for OK.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Iceresistance wrote:Trough trending larger on Euro?
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXubf.gif
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXubf.gif
This would signal more favorable moisture to work with.
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I am not a meteorologist. Any post from me should be taken as hobby or fun educational information, but not an accurate source for weather information. Please, refer to your local weather station or National Weather Service for the most up to date information. 

Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
The storm about a week later is basically a repeat. Long way out though.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- TropicalTundra
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Iceresistance wrote:What is with this downtrend?
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXuzY.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXuzY.gif
Same thing I’m asking. Went from CTX gets a blizzard to “better luck next time”

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Snow in Texas, 8th wonder of the World
Don't use my posts as forecast; I'm not a licensed meteorologist! I just endorse cold weather, alright?
All observations I note are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
TropicalTundra wrote:Iceresistance wrote:What is with this downtrend?
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXuzY.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXuzY.gif
Same thing I’m asking. Went from CTX gets a blizzard to “better luck next time”
I knew the Euro would trend north, but not this
I blame 57 for sabotage!


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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
TropicalTundra wrote:Iceresistance wrote:What is with this downtrend?
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXuzY.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXuzY.gif
Same thing I’m asking. Went from CTX gets a blizzard to “better luck next time”
Hi-Res models should begin to help tomorrow but as I mentioned earlier today folks this was far from certain in terms of snowfall accumulations and with these messy precip types, what you see on a model output doesn't always equate to reality. Some complex dynamic atmospheric factors at play here with these particular setups and so it's easy to go from "Oh my goodness we're getting a foot of snow" to "what only a few inches maybe" in the blink of an eye.
Having said that, despite the "King Euro" coming down a bit from its nuclear snowfall totals, there has been better model consensus tonight overall on at least the regions in play for some winter precip (sleet and snow). Still skeptical about the freezing rain aspect of this as surface temps are going to be borderline. More waiting and watching ahead tomorrow. See everyone back here tomorrow (later today).

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
For this initial front today, I feel like it overperformed. Seemed to come in a few hours earlier than originally forecast about 48-72 hours ago, and also, I could have sworn the forecast lows were upper 20's, IMBY near DFW airport it's gone between 22 and 23. OFCL at DFW Is 23 right now.
Feels like 6.
Feels like 6.
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I'm a Princess, not a forecaster.
- TropicalTundra
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:For this initial front today, I feel like it overperformed. Seemed to come in a few hours earlier than originally forecast about 48-72 hours ago, and also, I could have sworn the forecast lows were upper 20's, IMBY near DFW airport it's gone between 22 and 23. OFCL at DFW Is 23 right now.
Feels like 6.
Still about 3 hours until sunrise and I’m at 26F/7WC. Our lowest temp by morning according to models and NWS was 27F/14WC. The front did arrive about an hour early and there’s no clouds present, so it’s optimally cooling.
I have no idea if this front will affect what temp we’ll be at when the system arrives though.
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Snow in Texas, 8th wonder of the World
Don't use my posts as forecast; I'm not a licensed meteorologist! I just endorse cold weather, alright?
All observations I note are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.
Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
As implied earlier, it's not so much that the EURO decreases precipitation amounts, but rather it trended warmer (thus considerably less snow where there's higher QPF) due to the quicker phase.
Hopefully, for DFW's sake, this will be the end of that and things start correcring back SE a bit and colder.
EDIT: Same thing with the 06z GFS to a lesser extent.
Hopefully, for DFW's sake, this will be the end of that and things start correcring back SE a bit and colder.
EDIT: Same thing with the 06z GFS to a lesser extent.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
For Texas folks, you generally don't want a closed 500mb low showing up that far N of your area for an ideal heavy snow setup...




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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
David Reimer's (Texas Storm Chasers) initial expecttions, FWIW...
https://texasstormchasers.com/weather/t ... -thursday/
[/url]
https://texasstormchasers.com/weather/t ... -thursday/

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Interesting (from FWD)...
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/
VFR will prevail through the period with gusty northwest winds
continuing through midday before diminishing a bit tonight. Mid
and high clouds will likely overspread the area tonight with north
winds around 10 kt.
Otherwise, some lake effect clouds bands have developed downwind
of some of the bigger area lakes. This has resulted in
intermittent MVFR BKN025 cigs particularly at DAL and ADS. We`ll
carry a TEMPO BKN025 at DAL for a few hours this morning as
additional bands of clouds are likely. There is also a very low
chance of some light lake effect snow showers/flurries this
morning immediately downwind of these lakes. We`ll continue to
monitor this potential.
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/
VFR will prevail through the period with gusty northwest winds
continuing through midday before diminishing a bit tonight. Mid
and high clouds will likely overspread the area tonight with north
winds around 10 kt.
Otherwise, some lake effect clouds bands have developed downwind
of some of the bigger area lakes. This has resulted in
intermittent MVFR BKN025 cigs particularly at DAL and ADS. We`ll
carry a TEMPO BKN025 at DAL for a few hours this morning as
additional bands of clouds are likely. There is also a very low
chance of some light lake effect snow showers/flurries this
morning immediately downwind of these lakes. We`ll continue to
monitor this potential.
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- CaptinCrunch
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025
Tuesday's models is what you want, from that point it's just fine tuning for your local area. Everyone should see winter precipitation of some type, and I'm still on board with a 3”-5” accumulations across DFW. At least whatever falls will last into the weekend.
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