Texas Winter 2024-2025

[txtwister78]

This is what I was referring to when you talk about drastic changes even on an ensemble when an event is upper level driven. 12z GEFS compared to 6z.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736164800/1736510400-au1Eseudg9E.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736143200/1736510400-f2P37oORa1o.png

Can we add a Dislike This button?

Lol. Yeah I don't blame you but this could still turn around and go the other way. Important to note one run and high-res models will be better to handle complexities with dynamics.

[snownado]

12z EURO goes any further NW and I'm going to start checking out again.

And I'm just speaking for myself. I personally have no interest in ice or nuisance snow.

[Ntxw]

This is what I was referring to when you talk about drastic changes even on an ensemble when an event is upper level driven. 12z GEFS compared to 6z.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736164800/1736510400-au1Eseudg9E.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736143200/1736510400-f2P37oORa1o.png

Can we add a Dislike This button?

Hey can't blame the messenger! Keyboard pounding is all one can do out of frustration .

[JayDT]

This is what I was referring to when you talk about drastic changes even on an ensemble when an event is upper level driven. 12z GEFS compared to 6z.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736164800/1736510400-au1Eseudg9E.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736143200/1736510400-f2P37oORa1o.png

Can we add a Dislike This button?

I’ve actually been thinking the exact same thing these last few days…

[Ralph's Weather]

Think the High-Res will sort all of this out but as others have mentioned, it's still a degree here or there difference the further north you go and as long as you have some convective precip involved, sleet could quickly change over to heavy snow somewhere along that corridor. It's just the trends have been a little warmer with the upper levels today so far.

Yep, now's the time to begin comparing the Hi Res output with what you're seeing depicted on the Globals. And sure enough, the GFS is almost 4-5 Deg C warmer than the HRRR model Wednesday morning...I like using the 925 mb level as a good benchmark for these comparison and check this out for 12Z Wednesday:

Will have massive implications for forecasters, particularly local tv mets who hug global print outs

GFS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/t925/1736164800/1736337600-BoNjH4jEkuY.png

HRRR
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/t925/1736164800/1736337600-wwdIDffRy8M.png

Now we are getting into closer range we have a lot more tools at our disposal. Things like this will start to become apparent.

[rwfromkansas]

Geez, this is the part of tracking storms I HATE. The anxiety of watching for the inevitable last-minute change/shift. The CMC would dump on me, but if it moves even 20 miles north, I'm in the screw-zone.

There is a reason I don't like watching sports, soap operas etc. The drama/anxiety.

(yet I love weather and scary movies. What the heck)

[Quixotic]

It’s nice to have something to track. Right now I’m in the sweet spot with 12”+. I don’t believe that and I don’t believe I’m just going to get shut out. Those Dews are really low and with CAA expected until Wednesday night, I don’t expect them to rebound enough to mess with my pig. So, deep breaths and wait for HR models to get in range.

[orangeblood]

This is what I was referring to when you talk about drastic changes even on an ensemble when an event is upper level driven. 12z GEFS compared to 6z.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736164800/1736510400-au1Eseudg9E.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1736143200/1736510400-f2P37oORa1o.png

Can we add a Dislike This button?

Hey can't blame the messenger! Keyboard pounding is all one can do out of frustration .

It's time to use all of the tools we have at our disposal....the latest GFS Ens Mean is way off on upper level temps when compared to Hi Res 48 hrs from now

[Quixotic]

You’ll know when I’ve thrown in the towel when I say “And then, depression set in.”

[Ntxw]

It’s nice to have something to track. Right now I’m in the sweet spot with 12”+. I don’t believe that and I don’t believe I’m just going to get shut out. Those Dews are really low and with CAA expected until Wednesday night, I don’t expect them to rebound enough to mess with my pig. So, deep breaths and wait for HR models to get in range.

Too much CAA and can miss the best QPF too. This is all part of that greed!

[cheezyWXguy]

Is it weird that I’m just…not that concerned yet about us missing out? I feel like I would be more concerned if qpf totals were dropping, but all of the models have been beefing it up over the last couple runs. Additionally, with the short range guidance coming into range (albeit limited at this point), the 12z NAM looks solid and the HRRR is several degrees cooler above the surface at the end of its run.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but it has seemed like a consistent bias among the global models to over exaggerate WAA in winter storms with higher qpfs. Yeah they could be right this time, but doesn’t it feel like we’ve gone on this ride before? There’s obviously variability that could have an impact, but I can’t remember a single storm where that wasn’t the case - 2021 is the closest I know of and there were still periods where we were sweating.

[snowballzzz]

I sure wish that 12z RGEM run verifies. Really lays it down for my area.

[cstrunk]

Don't like this morning's shift NW.

This morning ended up a few degrees colder than what models were showing a few days ago, FWIW. At least for Longview.

[Ntxw]

Can we add a Dislike This button?

Hey can't blame the messenger! Keyboard pounding is all one can do out of frustration .

It's time to use all of the tools we have at our disposal....the latest GFS Ens Mean is way off on upper level temps when compared to Hi Res 48 hrs from now

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t850/1736164800/1736337600-mnSyFYgunfs.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/t850/1736164800/1736337600-wBRiUKZmV6U.png

There's a cold high over the front range. You know where I'm going with this!

[Quixotic]

It’s nice to have something to track. Right now I’m in the sweet spot with 12”+. I don’t believe that and I don’t believe I’m just going to get shut out. Those Dews are really low and with CAA expected until Wednesday night, I don’t expect them to rebound enough to mess with my pig. So, deep breaths and wait for HR models to get in range.

Too much CAA and can miss the best QPF too. This is all part of that greed!

True, but this is a powerful storm and I expect convection which would quickly overcome any dry layers. I’m not greedy. Anything measurable is fine by me.

[txtwister78]

Is it weird that I’m just…not that concerned yet about us missing out? I feel like I would be more concerned if qpf totals were dropping, but all of the models have been beefing it up over the last couple runs. Additionally, with the short range guidance coming into range (albeit limited at this point), the 12z NAM looks solid and the HRRR is several degrees cooler above the surface at the end of its run.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but it has seemed like a consistent bias among the global models to over exaggerate WAA in winter storms with higher qpfs. Yeah they could be right this time, but doesn’t it feel like we’ve gone on this ride before? There’s obviously variability that could have an impact, but I can’t remember a single storm where that wasn’t the case - 2021 is the closest I know of and there were still periods where we were sweating.

2021 was just terrible all around for most of the globals and so that one is an easy one to pick out of course. Globals definitely struggle with arctic air further south no question and may try to warm layers too quickly as you point out.

I think at this stage we're getting closer to having more reliability on the High-Res guidance for the reasons you mentioned. One thing I am noticing early on with the RAP, HRRR (as mentioned above) and NAM is colder upper levels compared to the global models. We really want to get this thing going Wednesday into Thursday morning if we can to where we can be a little more confident with precip types.

[Ntxw]

Euro will put more at edge.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Been a while since I posted on here but always lurking on the forums. Reed Timmer has a good breakdown of this storm on Facebook. He noted the 6z but similar to others not hugging model runs on every product. About as good a look as we’ve had for a long time here in Fort Worth.

[Quixotic]

Euro will put more at edge.

lol.

[HockeyTx82]

Euro will put more at edge.

lol.

I'm on the Edge of Glory, and I'm hanging on a moment of truth.