Texas Winter 2024-2025

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Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3081 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jan 06, 2025 3:24 pm

I just got off a webinar presentation from NWS Austin/San Antonio about this week's event. Their confidence is increasing that some sort of wintery mix will occur in northern and northwestern areas of their forecast area from late Wednesday into early Friday. No definitive thoughts on totals yet and as we already know, the key will be temps. They do feel like for their area, sleet and freezing rain will be much greater threats than snow. In terms of impacts, they see minor/moderate impact possibilities. Nothing major as of yet. But that is based on the information they currently have on hand. Things can change and they acknowledge they probably will as we get closer to the event and the hi-res models get a better idea on things.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3082 Postby snownado » Mon Jan 06, 2025 3:26 pm

Portastorm wrote:I just got off a webinar presentation from NWS Austin/San Antonio about this week's event. Their confidence is increasing that some sort of wintery mix will occur in northern and northwestern areas of their forecast area from late Wednesday into early Friday. No definitive thoughts on totals yet and as we already know, the key will be temps. They do feel like for their area, sleet and freezing rain will be much greater threats than snow. In terms of impacts, they see minor/moderate impact possibilities. Nothing major as of yet. But that is based on the information they currently have on hand. Things can change and they acknowledge they probably will as we get closer to the event and the hi-res models get a better idea on things.


Any discussion about headlines, and coordination with other NWS offices?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3083 Postby snownado » Mon Jan 06, 2025 3:30 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3084 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jan 06, 2025 3:34 pm

snownado wrote:
Portastorm wrote:I just got off a webinar presentation from NWS Austin/San Antonio about this week's event. Their confidence is increasing that some sort of wintery mix will occur in northern and northwestern areas of their forecast area from late Wednesday into early Friday. No definitive thoughts on totals yet and as we already know, the key will be temps. They do feel like for their area, sleet and freezing rain will be much greater threats than snow. In terms of impacts, they see minor/moderate impact possibilities. Nothing major as of yet. But that is based on the information they currently have on hand. Things can change and they acknowledge they probably will as we get closer to the event and the hi-res models get a better idea on things.


Any discussion about headlines, and coordination with other NWS offices?


Not really. They did review the criterion for the Winter Weather Advisory, Winter Storm Watch, and Winter Storm Warning. And they did suggest we could see at least one of those for at least part of their area. As for coordination with other NWS offices, I know for a fact they do that in almost every event. I've had the privilege and opportunity of working with our local office for years and I know they do state coordination calls as well as being in touch with NWS Southern Region. I get the sense that tomorrow they're going to really hone in on specifics.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3085 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 06, 2025 3:36 pm

Latest discussion and issuance from the WPC office

..Southern Plains...
Day 3...

As the aforementioned upper low closes off over the Southwest
Thursday and continues to dig into northwestern Mexico Friday it
will become anomalously deep (below the 0.5th climate percentile
per the NAEFS ESAT). Meanwhile, a separate shortwave rounding the
far eastern Pacific ridge is forecast to dive southward through
Utah and interact with this feature and spawn strong southwest flow
containing rich moisture and prominent upper divergence from an
increasingly buckled jet. Given the strong high situated to the
north over the Central Plains and a cold low-level airmass in
place, snow and mixed precipitation is expected over much of
western and north-central TX late Wed and through Thursday,
expanding eastward to the Ozarks by the end of the period. Thermal
uncertainty is high (as expected) due to the upstream players
(timing, depth, etc.) and the NBM ptype probabilities show a zone
of maximum uncertainty from near the Big Bend northeastward to
around TexArKana.

All ptypes are in play -- snow/sleet/freezing rain and plain rain
to the south -- and each will likely not be stagnant in location.
For now, the highest probabilities of snow lie on the northwest
side of the precipitation shield in the deeper colder air from the
Permian Basin across Northwest TX into North TX (near and northwest
of the D-FW Metroplex). There, WPC probabilities for at least 4
inches of snow are around 30-50%. To the southeast, within the zone
of maximum uncertainty, probabilitiesfor accumulating snowfall
decrease while probabilities for ice increase. Areas from near
Austin northeastwardthrough the Piney Woods into the Hill Parishes
of LA show the highest chance of at least 0.1 inches of ice
accumulation (30-60%).


This system has prompted the issuance of a new set of Key Messages
which are linked at the bottom of the discussion.


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_2.png
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3086 Postby Stratton23 » Mon Jan 06, 2025 3:38 pm

western parts of se texas may need to watch out, extremely close call on nam with temps around 33, i have a feeling some folks in the south might be in for a surprise lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3087 Postby txtwister78 » Mon Jan 06, 2025 3:40 pm

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3088 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 06, 2025 3:41 pm



And if Frankie speaks, you listen!!! :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3089 Postby UTSARoadrunner4 » Mon Jan 06, 2025 3:42 pm


(Sigh) San Antonio is just a little too far south…again…
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3090 Postby snownado » Mon Jan 06, 2025 3:42 pm

18z NAM has made it clear we're getting no breathing room (it headed in the wrong direction).
Last edited by snownado on Mon Jan 06, 2025 3:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3091 Postby wxman22 » Mon Jan 06, 2025 3:43 pm

18z NAM

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3092 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon Jan 06, 2025 3:47 pm

So are we actually getting this system sampled now or still just projections of what could happen?

Seems pretty consistent and ramping up.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3093 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 06, 2025 3:47 pm

snownado wrote:18z NAM has made it clear we're getting no breathing room (it headed in the wrong direction).


You're in a great spot, the sweet spot of high QPF and freezing temps, and the NAM is now aligning with the Euro.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3094 Postby snownado » Mon Jan 06, 2025 3:47 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:So are we actually getting this system sampled now or still just projections of what could happen?

Seems pretty consistent and ramping up.


Portions of the system are now onshore.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3095 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon Jan 06, 2025 3:48 pm

orangeblood wrote:
snownado wrote:18z NAM has made it clear we're getting no breathing room (it headed in the wrong direction).


You're in a great spot, the sweet spot of high QPF and freezing temps, and the NAM is now aligning with the Euro.


I think Denton County might be able to cash in pretty good too.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3096 Postby txtwister78 » Mon Jan 06, 2025 3:49 pm

UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:

(Sigh) San Antonio is just a little too far south…again…


Well, I don't particularly want to get into freezing rain so that's just fine for me. These temp profiles however are literally one to two degrees all along the I-35 corrdior from more sleet to all snow further north and so NAM still a little warmer than the HRRR at the 48 hour range. Doesn't mean it isn't accurate but boy it's razor close in determining some of these precip types. Also temps on the 18z drop to 33 degrees at 3pm all around Bexar county compared to 35-36 on the 12z run so it's borderline even here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3097 Postby snownado » Mon Jan 06, 2025 3:50 pm

orangeblood wrote:
snownado wrote:18z NAM has made it clear we're getting no breathing room (it headed in the wrong direction).


You're in a great spot, the sweet spot of high QPF and freezing temps, and the NAM is now aligning with the Euro.


I'm in far SW Collin County, so cutting it close with these subtle NW shifts and the marginal temps.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3098 Postby snownado » Mon Jan 06, 2025 3:53 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
snownado wrote:18z NAM has made it clear we're getting no breathing room (it headed in the wrong direction).


You're in a great spot, the sweet spot of high QPF and freezing temps, and the NAM is now aligning with the Euro.


I think Denton County might be able to cash in pretty good too.


Would definitely feel a bit more comfortable in most of Denton County.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3099 Postby Quicksilver17 » Mon Jan 06, 2025 3:56 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
Quicksilver17 wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
No need to apologize, I'll happily take the cold rain! No travel or power outage issues expected with that. Plus, areas that haven't seen much rain in months are expected to get a good soaking later this week. Very beneficial for the long term drought across south and west Texas!


STS,

Any thoughts on the next system coming in in regard to our chances for the Houston/Tomball area?


I'm pretty confident we'll see a cold moderate to heavy rain Thursday into Friday. Any ice and snow accumulations will likely remain north of the metro area. I suppose Tomball could briefly see some sleet/freezing rain at the onset but it should quickly become all rain.


STS,

Tks for the insight. Fingers crossed that we get something this far south before end of Winter. :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3100 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 06, 2025 3:56 pm

snownado wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
snownado wrote:18z NAM has made it clear we're getting no breathing room (it headed in the wrong direction).


You're in a great spot, the sweet spot of high QPF and freezing temps, and the NAM is now aligning with the Euro.


I'm in far SW Collin County, so cutting it close with these subtle NW shifts and the marginal temps.


Need to live on the edge if you want the big payout with this system
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